Short Term Long (until real confirmation)
Things don't ever travel in a straight line in Oil. That's why people who enjoy volatility and risk tend to trade it. Now bigger picture moves will almost always shake traders out of great moves with retests of tops/bottoms and extreme highs followed by extreme lows. When you've been thrown around enough, you learn to just trade the extreme zones an wait for catalysts.
What's been happening since the last idea? Well Oil did reverse/resume from 93.62-7 and began the trip to the downside to test a key support/supports as mentioned. First the 82-83 level, from which it reacted quite strongly to go and retest 93.7 a month later. 11 days after that, we found our selves at 77.2-3 area.
Even though it was 2pm UTC on a Friday we could not resist taking the entry that rewarded 300 pips in 6 hours.
77.28 was the lowest long entry price of those mentioned in the last idea for a potential moves to the upside and it has rewarded so far. However with a capital H, bearishness may not be done just yet. 50% of long positions were closed at 80.3 with the remainder having SLs at 78.2 and TPs at 83, 84, and 85-86 area.
The main reason for this caution is that last year something quite similar happened around Oct-Dec period. There was a mark up in Oct and some of Nov followed by a drop in Nov. Towards the end of the year, there was a rise and fall (whilst falling overall) in the last week of November. If anyone remembers this happening, they used the last week of November to go and retest the lows of the year. We are not saying the exact thing will happen but we are very conscious of the possibility of this happening.
If the last week of November plays similar to that of last year, we are looking at the following things:
BEARISH VIEW
Pump from 77.28 to 83/84/85 area and strong sell signals to sell Oil down further to test 2022 lows.
Now the lowest level Price has been at in the year of 2022 is 74.2-3.
This is a level that we may be looking for buys at come the start of Dec 2022 or Jan 2023. There is a significant 12 Green Vector candle from 201221 with a body bottom of 64.45 to also keep in the back of our minds.
BULLISH VIEW
In order to actually be fully bullish on this market we need to see a bottom formed at or around the area that the strong rejection has taken place (or better still at some of the levels mentioned below). We then need to see clear failures to break that bottom followed by some serious long signals like strong Bullish engulfing patterns in conjunction with a double bottom.
It would also be good to see the turn of the year before really getting long blindly.
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Lower levels to keep in mind:
76.26 - Although we have just come all the way back down to 77.28 on 181122, we didn't actually test the real low of 260922 but instead came within 100pips. This could be a Higher high indicating that the trend can still be up in the bigger picture. Furthermore, in coming to 77.28, it recovered a 4 Hour Blue Vector Candle from 260922. Things tend to go up when this happens. But equally it means if it s to for example want to make a double bottom, it probably will come back to 76.26.
75.66 - So when Price came down to 76.26 on 260922, it came within 60 pips of making contact with the next Green Vector candle below which would have been from 271221 at said price. The bottom of this Vector candle is actually at 73.4.
74.2-3 - As previously mentioned, this is the lowest that price was in the year of 2022.
73.4 - The bottom of the Green Vector candle from 271221
71.3 - Green Vector
69.46 -Green Vector
67.24 - Green Vector
61.8-62.7 - 2021 Key Support
57.2 - 2021 (March) Launch pad
51.5 - 2021 Low
Higher levels to keep in mind:
83, 85, 87, 89, 93, 95, 97, 99, 103 (price gap)
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Good luck traders!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt!
Things don't ever travel in a straight line in Oil. That's why people who enjoy volatility and risk tend to trade it. Now bigger picture moves will almost always shake traders out of great moves with retests of tops/bottoms and extreme highs followed by extreme lows. When you've been thrown around enough, you learn to just trade the extreme zones an wait for catalysts.
What's been happening since the last idea? Well Oil did reverse/resume from 93.62-7 and began the trip to the downside to test a key support/supports as mentioned. First the 82-83 level, from which it reacted quite strongly to go and retest 93.7 a month later. 11 days after that, we found our selves at 77.2-3 area.
Even though it was 2pm UTC on a Friday we could not resist taking the entry that rewarded 300 pips in 6 hours.
77.28 was the lowest long entry price of those mentioned in the last idea for a potential moves to the upside and it has rewarded so far. However with a capital H, bearishness may not be done just yet. 50% of long positions were closed at 80.3 with the remainder having SLs at 78.2 and TPs at 83, 84, and 85-86 area.
The main reason for this caution is that last year something quite similar happened around Oct-Dec period. There was a mark up in Oct and some of Nov followed by a drop in Nov. Towards the end of the year, there was a rise and fall (whilst falling overall) in the last week of November. If anyone remembers this happening, they used the last week of November to go and retest the lows of the year. We are not saying the exact thing will happen but we are very conscious of the possibility of this happening.
If the last week of November plays similar to that of last year, we are looking at the following things:
BEARISH VIEW
Pump from 77.28 to 83/84/85 area and strong sell signals to sell Oil down further to test 2022 lows.
Now the lowest level Price has been at in the year of 2022 is 74.2-3.
This is a level that we may be looking for buys at come the start of Dec 2022 or Jan 2023. There is a significant 12 Green Vector candle from 201221 with a body bottom of 64.45 to also keep in the back of our minds.
BULLISH VIEW
In order to actually be fully bullish on this market we need to see a bottom formed at or around the area that the strong rejection has taken place (or better still at some of the levels mentioned below). We then need to see clear failures to break that bottom followed by some serious long signals like strong Bullish engulfing patterns in conjunction with a double bottom.
It would also be good to see the turn of the year before really getting long blindly.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lower levels to keep in mind:
76.26 - Although we have just come all the way back down to 77.28 on 181122, we didn't actually test the real low of 260922 but instead came within 100pips. This could be a Higher high indicating that the trend can still be up in the bigger picture. Furthermore, in coming to 77.28, it recovered a 4 Hour Blue Vector Candle from 260922. Things tend to go up when this happens. But equally it means if it s to for example want to make a double bottom, it probably will come back to 76.26.
75.66 - So when Price came down to 76.26 on 260922, it came within 60 pips of making contact with the next Green Vector candle below which would have been from 271221 at said price. The bottom of this Vector candle is actually at 73.4.
74.2-3 - As previously mentioned, this is the lowest that price was in the year of 2022.
73.4 - The bottom of the Green Vector candle from 271221
71.3 - Green Vector
69.46 -Green Vector
67.24 - Green Vector
61.8-62.7 - 2021 Key Support
57.2 - 2021 (March) Launch pad
51.5 - 2021 Low
Higher levels to keep in mind:
83, 85, 87, 89, 93, 95, 97, 99, 103 (price gap)
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Good luck traders!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt!
