DAX Bear Market Trade, Part 5

My previous Dax analysis from 2 months ago:


My Dax bear market short trade is still running since earlier this year and today i will take some profits now. We have (almost) reached the target of that H&S already and i am not going to risk 2200 points to get that last 100 points for the 10.500 target. The 10.500 H&S target is the most conservative i can see, so i have decided to take 50% profit at this point of my long term trade.

Now my main reason for me doing this, is because it is December. The past 20 years we have never seen a big drop in this month, except for 2015. I actually even though we might not even drop at all the past weeks, but the market is clearly very weak. Another reason for taking partial profit here, is because of that potential big support zone , the green area on the left chart. Third reason, as it happens in all the markets, i think there is a very realistic chance for a bear trap around the current levels. The market is getting slowly more bearish now, so we tend to see retail money short these lows. What do the pro's do, they push the markets up, use their stop loss levels as fuel to push the market up again.


Now i can always short it again if i start to see we will not move up, but for now i think there is a reasonable chance for a move towards the 11.500/12.00 again to test former support levels. This would be an ideal spot for me to get back in with that 50% again. My assumption is that we might be able to short it again somewhere in late Jan of 2019. Because i can not be sure of all these assumptions, i am only closing 50% and not 100% of the position. So i don't miss out on my long term trade in case i am wrong for the short term.

I have been patiently sitting on my hands the past 2 months, even after we dropped some more when i took 50% profits. There is still a chance that we move higher, like the blue line, but this is a long term trade. In other words, i closed the 50% 500 points lower so i am already in better shape now for doing that. Only if the Dax gets above the 12K, i might adjust my long term trade. I might even increase the short if we go towards the 11.800. But since the Dax' has been very week the past few weeks, i don't think there is a lot of room on the upside there. I have added 25% again and will wait for the other 25% tomorrow morning.


Previous analysis:

The Analysis where i caught the bear trap

The analysis where i called the start of the bear market

Comment:

First 25% is in now, i will get the rest in later today, probably after the US opens

Comment:

Good price now:

Comment:

I am getting the second 25% in now at 11415 and going to sit on my pos again. Nasdaq seems to be breaking a first support now, so could be over now