ridethepig

ridethepig | Dollar into the elections

Long
TVC:DXY   U.S. Dollar Currency Index
πŸ“Œ This will act as the start of the next 'novel' on dollar: the first of course will serve as our map into the next 13 days.

We must review the Medium and Long term charts to understand the art of what we are tracking, and the contact between Dollar and safe-haven flows as we enter into another expansion of volatility . The follow diagram portrays the position from earlier in the year, momentum arose with Covid and to such an extent that a rise in USD is no longer possible without venom for EM FX in particular.


We have also been able to construct examples of the flows in main course dishes like EURUSD:


In a nutshell, what we are tracking here is the C leg in a retrace wave, inside a more structural, longer term decline in the USD. A complex multi dimension environment, my short-term models are indicating of USD inflows as a protection for election risk and as an example of the ultimate safe haven with lockdowns & covid chapter II.

The key question which we will answer as we move along will be if this is infact a retrace inside a sustained decline, or the start of a brand new uptrend in USD. In this scenario, a test of 97.5x would be enough to build confidence in the view. Recommend layering these in G10 and EM FX as we go for all those following the live calls.

Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming πŸ‘ or πŸ‘Ž
Comment: Short-term flows in EURUSD should be very clear...

Comment:
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Comments

Great analysis and charts...no disrespect at all...
+1 Reply
Your analysis of the DXY...traditional EW you cant have a triangle in a wave 2...doesnt mean it isn't a wave 2 it definitely is just not a triangle...it's a flat correction
+1 Reply
Sangam-Agarwal Bluedragonfly3131
@Bluedragonfly3131, you have deep understanding of Elliott wave and you are right. it is irregular flat
Reply
Sangam-Agarwal Bluedragonfly3131
@Bluedragonfly3131, look usdcad it is mre clear there.
Reply
You are right, I expect growth too.
Reply
Sending stocks and bitcoin much higher
Reply
Probably breaks that major support at 88
Reply
ridethepig STP_MrNodeItAll
@STP_MrNodeItAll, it looks inevitable now...
Reply
so the dollar in the long run will be alot more inflated, more inflation in the years to come?
Reply
ridethepig jokercvb
Yes @jokercvb inflation is coming and they will get there wish via shortages in supply and contraction in globalisation. A digital dollar will open the window for defaults via perpetual bonds.
Reply
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