S&P 500 Expected Move ($33.75) and Gravity Points
I'd expect more volatility next week than the $33.75 move the options market is pricing in.
I'm leaning bearish going into next week. Not willing to commit to it unless I see a higher time-frame divergence though.
Leaning bearish because the underlying reason the market was rising was Fed rate cuts, which was a damaged with Friday's uber strong jobs report, it reduced the probabilities of a 26% chance of a 50 bpt cut to a 3% chance. There's still a 100% chance of a 25 bpt rate cut next time.
I try to be data driven but I can't help but have the suspicion that the Fed is not going to be eager to cut and might not next time even though the data is saying there's a 100% probability of it. Would catch a lot of people offsides.
Watch Bond reaction next week.
Last Week's Post:
www.tradingview.com/...-and-Gravity-Points/
(Quite happy with results from last week)
P.S. for what it's worth, adding additional ticker tags in your Idea doesn't impact your views. Last week's experiment proved as much.
Good luck next week gentlemen,
- RH
I'm leaning bearish going into next week. Not willing to commit to it unless I see a higher time-frame divergence though.
Leaning bearish because the underlying reason the market was rising was Fed rate cuts, which was a damaged with Friday's uber strong jobs report, it reduced the probabilities of a 26% chance of a 50 bpt cut to a 3% chance. There's still a 100% chance of a 25 bpt rate cut next time.
I try to be data driven but I can't help but have the suspicion that the Fed is not going to be eager to cut and might not next time even though the data is saying there's a 100% probability of it. Would catch a lot of people offsides.
Watch Bond reaction next week.
Last Week's Post:
www.tradingview.com/...-and-Gravity-Points/
(Quite happy with results from last week)
P.S. for what it's worth, adding additional ticker tags in your Idea doesn't impact your views. Last week's experiment proved as much.
Good luck next week gentlemen,
- RH
Came at the 2nd Standard Deviation trendline.
Decent bullish trade setup for the rest of the week.