June 21 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
4-Day Island; Gap; 4-Day Balance.
Technical:
Mixed messages provided after equity indices broke the short-term, momentum driven uptrend, and corrected on June 11. Overall, the island of balance left behind, after the market sold-off, is still intact and will offer resistance on upward auctions. If the market trades through that area, then sentiment has changed and the initiative activity that drove prices lower is no longer present.
Monday displayed a rejection of lower prices after overnight activity started off weak, on a gap down, but quickly corrected into the regular trading session, impulsing higher, through the $3,000 S&P 500 level.
Tuesday’s trade blew through most of the resting offers overnight, into a low-volume area, on a record increase in U.S. retail sales. Later on, after a choppy open, the market established good excess on the lower extreme, and pinned near the $3,100 level.
Wednesday and Thursday’s action was fairly muted as the market continued digesting the upward correction going into Friday’s simultaneous expiry of options and futures tied to index products.
Despite gapping to the high end of the week-long balance overnight, Friday’s trade was volatile and lacked conviction to continue into the resting liquidity at and above the $3,135 area.
Putting everything together, the picture points to the potential for a volatile week ahead. With the removal of S&P open interest, gamma (i.e., the sensitivity of options to changes in underlying price) imbalances and hedging activity could heighten volatility. If liquidation continues into the coming week and value moves lower, then the near-term bullish narrative is no longer intact.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Existing Home Sales; National Activity Index; Building Permits; PMIs; New Home Sales; Home Prices; Q1 GDP; Durable Goods; Trade Balance; Trade Inventories; Initial Claims; Continued Claims; Personal Income; Personal Consumption; PCE; UoM Sentiment June Final.
Fundamental:
Mortgage applications jumped for the 11th week in a row. bit.ly/37Jm1f2
Traffic at supermarkets and merchandise stores near normal. bit.ly/2CqCtoW
Oil prices will average less than $60 to ensure production. reut.rs/2YfVra6
U.S. and Canadian oil and gas rig count falls to record lows. reut.rs/3fGTSb9
On June 26, Russell will implement a record index reconstitution. bit.ly/2V3iBOX
China stressed as repo rates and yields climb, liquidity thins out. bloom.bg/3hL8Wq7
Fed shifts away from bond ETFs to a special, diversified index. bloom.bg/3hL8Wq7
ECB’s boost to pandemic bond buying isn’t enough. bloom.bg/2zRUwU4
No indication BOE will renew its asset-purchase program. bloom.bg/2NehaJh
Companies to ditch revenue focus, hone in on market share growth. bit.ly/2CllxQt
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) acquired a mapping technology company. bit.ly/3fFAbAy
META
Square Inc (NYSE: SQ) acquired a Spanish P2P payments app. bit.ly/3fFAbAy
SQ
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) closes stores due to resurgence of COVID-19. reut.rs/2YRhbrX
AAPL
Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) posts stronger sales, profit amid pandemic. on.wsj.com/2YipJsZ
KR
Unemployment claims decline, but at a slower rate. bit.ly/3dl3aYX
Shopper engagement is higher with mobile ecommerce apps. bit.ly/2BlJlmW
High-yield downgrades drop from March and April readings. bit.ly/3fMEQ3P
MIT, Harvard, and others on how capitalism will emerge after COVID-19. bit.ly/3dileCZ
Startups focused on saving time and money may thrive. bit.ly/2V5030Z
Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT), Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) partnership a credit positive. bit.ly/37O0bXz
WMT
Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) Brazil payments service cuts into bank profits. bit.ly/37O0bXz
META
GrubHub Inc (NYSE: GRUB) acquisition a credit negative for U.S. online food-delivery. bit.ly/37M9qaN NYSE:GRUB
EU solvency rule amendments to improve bank capital ratios and support the economy. bit.ly/37M9qaN
No-deal Brexit to compound risks for sectors hit by pandemic disruption. bit.ly/37M9qaN
Americans increased spending while working from home. bit.ly/3dn8rPA
France lifts most of its COVID-19 restrictions. on.ft.com/2Cu5uAd
AT&T Inc’s (NYSE: T) sale of Warner Bros. would fetch around $4 billion. cnb.cx/2YjfsNe
T
USD to weaken as Fed commits to QE infinity. bit.ly/3fGs0Ut
ARM-based Macs to expand Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) PC market share. bit.ly/2YQC9HG
AAPL
U.S. natural gas extraction efficiency improves, increasing production rates. bit.ly/3ei9XDS
UNG
Air maintenance firms brace for a 75% sales decline this year. reut.rs/3hMvFSI
The U.S. weighs a $1 trillion infrastructure plan to spur the economy back to life. bloom.bg/3hPYcXI
Loan default rate approaches 4% on imminent energy bankruptcies. bit.ly/2YirpCD
Airports resilient despite pandemic fallout. bit.ly/3fJKGD2
JETS
Sentiment: 24.4% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 47.8% Bearish as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,194,659,186 as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 52.5% as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
DBO
USL
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
4-Day Island; Gap; 4-Day Balance.
Technical:
Mixed messages provided after equity indices broke the short-term, momentum driven uptrend, and corrected on June 11. Overall, the island of balance left behind, after the market sold-off, is still intact and will offer resistance on upward auctions. If the market trades through that area, then sentiment has changed and the initiative activity that drove prices lower is no longer present.
Monday displayed a rejection of lower prices after overnight activity started off weak, on a gap down, but quickly corrected into the regular trading session, impulsing higher, through the $3,000 S&P 500 level.
Tuesday’s trade blew through most of the resting offers overnight, into a low-volume area, on a record increase in U.S. retail sales. Later on, after a choppy open, the market established good excess on the lower extreme, and pinned near the $3,100 level.
Wednesday and Thursday’s action was fairly muted as the market continued digesting the upward correction going into Friday’s simultaneous expiry of options and futures tied to index products.
Despite gapping to the high end of the week-long balance overnight, Friday’s trade was volatile and lacked conviction to continue into the resting liquidity at and above the $3,135 area.
Putting everything together, the picture points to the potential for a volatile week ahead. With the removal of S&P open interest, gamma (i.e., the sensitivity of options to changes in underlying price) imbalances and hedging activity could heighten volatility. If liquidation continues into the coming week and value moves lower, then the near-term bullish narrative is no longer intact.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
Existing Home Sales; National Activity Index; Building Permits; PMIs; New Home Sales; Home Prices; Q1 GDP; Durable Goods; Trade Balance; Trade Inventories; Initial Claims; Continued Claims; Personal Income; Personal Consumption; PCE; UoM Sentiment June Final.
Fundamental:
Mortgage applications jumped for the 11th week in a row. bit.ly/37Jm1f2
Traffic at supermarkets and merchandise stores near normal. bit.ly/2CqCtoW
Oil prices will average less than $60 to ensure production. reut.rs/2YfVra6
U.S. and Canadian oil and gas rig count falls to record lows. reut.rs/3fGTSb9
On June 26, Russell will implement a record index reconstitution. bit.ly/2V3iBOX
China stressed as repo rates and yields climb, liquidity thins out. bloom.bg/3hL8Wq7
Fed shifts away from bond ETFs to a special, diversified index. bloom.bg/3hL8Wq7
ECB’s boost to pandemic bond buying isn’t enough. bloom.bg/2zRUwU4
No indication BOE will renew its asset-purchase program. bloom.bg/2NehaJh
Companies to ditch revenue focus, hone in on market share growth. bit.ly/2CllxQt
Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) acquired a mapping technology company. bit.ly/3fFAbAy
META
Square Inc (NYSE: SQ) acquired a Spanish P2P payments app. bit.ly/3fFAbAy
SQ
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) closes stores due to resurgence of COVID-19. reut.rs/2YRhbrX
AAPL
Kroger Co (NYSE: KR) posts stronger sales, profit amid pandemic. on.wsj.com/2YipJsZ
KR
Unemployment claims decline, but at a slower rate. bit.ly/3dl3aYX
Shopper engagement is higher with mobile ecommerce apps. bit.ly/2BlJlmW
High-yield downgrades drop from March and April readings. bit.ly/3fMEQ3P
MIT, Harvard, and others on how capitalism will emerge after COVID-19. bit.ly/3dileCZ
Startups focused on saving time and money may thrive. bit.ly/2V5030Z
Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT), Shopify Inc (NYSE: SHOP) partnership a credit positive. bit.ly/37O0bXz
WMT
Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ: FB) Brazil payments service cuts into bank profits. bit.ly/37O0bXz
META
GrubHub Inc (NYSE: GRUB) acquisition a credit negative for U.S. online food-delivery. bit.ly/37M9qaN NYSE:GRUB
EU solvency rule amendments to improve bank capital ratios and support the economy. bit.ly/37M9qaN
No-deal Brexit to compound risks for sectors hit by pandemic disruption. bit.ly/37M9qaN
Americans increased spending while working from home. bit.ly/3dn8rPA
France lifts most of its COVID-19 restrictions. on.ft.com/2Cu5uAd
AT&T Inc’s (NYSE: T) sale of Warner Bros. would fetch around $4 billion. cnb.cx/2YjfsNe
T
USD to weaken as Fed commits to QE infinity. bit.ly/3fGs0Ut
ARM-based Macs to expand Apple Inc’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) PC market share. bit.ly/2YQC9HG
AAPL
U.S. natural gas extraction efficiency improves, increasing production rates. bit.ly/3ei9XDS
UNG
Air maintenance firms brace for a 75% sales decline this year. reut.rs/3hMvFSI
The U.S. weighs a $1 trillion infrastructure plan to spur the economy back to life. bloom.bg/3hPYcXI
Loan default rate approaches 4% on imminent energy bankruptcies. bit.ly/2YirpCD
Airports resilient despite pandemic fallout. bit.ly/3fJKGD2
JETS
Sentiment: 24.4% Bullish, 27.8% Neutral, 47.8% Bearish as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Lower) 2,194,659,186 as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 52.5% as of 6/20/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
DBO
USL
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
