June 14 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
4-Day Island; Thursday Liquidation; Balance Area Below S&P 500 $2,975; Friday Corrective Action.
Technical:
Risk-off sentiment after equity indices erased an earlier gap that occurred on hopeful economic data. The island of balance left behind will offer resistance on any correction higher. If the market trades through that area, then sentiment has changed and the initiative activity that drove prices lower is no longer present.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday overnight traded to a low-volume area from Friday creating a ledge at $3,211 that the market later moved through, into the close. Prices above the ledge were rejected after Tuesday's overnight auctioned below the breakout point, down to resting liquidity at $3,190.
Wednesday's FOMC meeting officially ended the move higher as volatility increased and the market closed lower. Thursday displayed a rush from risk as selling was persistent and strong into the close.
Friday failed to generate continued selling below $3,000, closing above a prior balance area and VWAP.
Putting everything together, the picture points to the potential for a correction up to the coming Friday option expiration. If liquidation continues into the coming week and value moves lower, then the near-term bullish narrative is no longer intact.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
New York Federal Reserve’s Business Conditions Index; Retail Sales; Initial Claims; Industrial Production; Housing Starts; Housing Permits; Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Business Index; U.S. Current Account Deficit.
Fundamental:
Short-term speculative derivatives activity results in more hedging and volatility. bit.ly/2BXs0Rt
COVID-19 coronavirus data may have not prompted recent selling. bloom.bg/3hr00pA
Keeping unproductive companies going lowers long-run economic growth. bloom.bg/37slvlq
The Congressional Budget Office sees virus relief reaching $2.2 trillion this year. bloom.bg/37slvlq
U.S. gasoline consumption rebounds, led by removal of mobility restrictions. reut.rs/2B5Trs4
May default volume brought YTD default volume to its highest since May 2009. bit.ly/2UHJkAB
Coronavirus obliterated the best African-American job market on record. on.wsj.com/2UHJCrb
Fed to buy as many bonds as necessary to keep yields at desired level. bit.ly/2B73VYd
After-tax profits for retail companies fell more than expected. bit.ly/2B73VYd
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) to stop using Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) chips. bloom.bg/3e1xI2N
AAPL
INTC
Incoming shift to digital may grow Amazon Inc’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) AWS revenues. bit.ly/2BZXAOw
AMZN
The U.S. saw its largest decline in business owners between February and April. bit.ly/3d7eWGk
BP plc (NYSE: BP) to cut global workforce by 10,000. bit.ly/3hrlZgo
BP
Unrest and inequality pose fiscal and governance credit risks for states and cities. bit.ly/2B3tnhg
Airlines unlikely to fully recover before 2023, face structural changes. bit.ly/2B3tnhg
JETS
The U.S. consumer price index continues falling, sparks talk of deflation. bit.ly/2Az8uuk
Flat yield curves are a key threat to bank margins as rates stay low for longer. bit.ly/2YzKoaF
Hong Kong’s relief measures reduce pressure on bank asset quality. bit.ly/3dZgIKQ
New SEC rules on crowdfunding a boost to capital raising for startups. bit.ly/2C0SHol
Auctioneers race to unload oil equipment as drilling interest dries up. reut.rs/2BZZU8c
Senators draft plan to reform new plane design approvals. reut.rs/2C6abQq
BA
American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) to halt cash burn by year-end. reut.rs/37sIOvr
AAL
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) downgrade Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) noting current valuation underestimates risks including increased competition. reut.rs/2zA5MEu
GS
MS
TSLA
The Fed expects household finances to suffer persistent fragilities due to shock. reut.rs/2UHLUX7
U.S. consumer confidence rises while unemployment shadow lingers. reut.rs/3cZPpPb
Fed Chair Powell is devoted to the return of a strong labor market. reut.rs/37s5ps5
Hertz Global Holdings Inc (NYSE: HTZ) seizes on speculation with stock sale. reut.rs/3edTxwx NYSE:HTZ
Sentiment: 34.3% Bullish, 27.7% Neutral, 38.1% Bearish as of 6/14/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 5,515,247,892 as of 6/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 49.7% as of 6/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
DBO
USL
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
4-Day Island; Thursday Liquidation; Balance Area Below S&P 500 $2,975; Friday Corrective Action.
Technical:
Risk-off sentiment after equity indices erased an earlier gap that occurred on hopeful economic data. The island of balance left behind will offer resistance on any correction higher. If the market trades through that area, then sentiment has changed and the initiative activity that drove prices lower is no longer present.
Recapping last week’s action, Monday overnight traded to a low-volume area from Friday creating a ledge at $3,211 that the market later moved through, into the close. Prices above the ledge were rejected after Tuesday's overnight auctioned below the breakout point, down to resting liquidity at $3,190.
Wednesday's FOMC meeting officially ended the move higher as volatility increased and the market closed lower. Thursday displayed a rush from risk as selling was persistent and strong into the close.
Friday failed to generate continued selling below $3,000, closing above a prior balance area and VWAP.
Putting everything together, the picture points to the potential for a correction up to the coming Friday option expiration. If liquidation continues into the coming week and value moves lower, then the near-term bullish narrative is no longer intact.
Scroll to bottom of document for non-profile charts.
Key Events:
New York Federal Reserve’s Business Conditions Index; Retail Sales; Initial Claims; Industrial Production; Housing Starts; Housing Permits; Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Business Index; U.S. Current Account Deficit.
Fundamental:
Short-term speculative derivatives activity results in more hedging and volatility. bit.ly/2BXs0Rt
COVID-19 coronavirus data may have not prompted recent selling. bloom.bg/3hr00pA
Keeping unproductive companies going lowers long-run economic growth. bloom.bg/37slvlq
The Congressional Budget Office sees virus relief reaching $2.2 trillion this year. bloom.bg/37slvlq
U.S. gasoline consumption rebounds, led by removal of mobility restrictions. reut.rs/2B5Trs4
May default volume brought YTD default volume to its highest since May 2009. bit.ly/2UHJkAB
Coronavirus obliterated the best African-American job market on record. on.wsj.com/2UHJCrb
Fed to buy as many bonds as necessary to keep yields at desired level. bit.ly/2B73VYd
After-tax profits for retail companies fell more than expected. bit.ly/2B73VYd
Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) to stop using Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) chips. bloom.bg/3e1xI2N
AAPL
INTC
Incoming shift to digital may grow Amazon Inc’s (NASDAQ: AMZN) AWS revenues. bit.ly/2BZXAOw
AMZN
The U.S. saw its largest decline in business owners between February and April. bit.ly/3d7eWGk
BP plc (NYSE: BP) to cut global workforce by 10,000. bit.ly/3hrlZgo
BP
Unrest and inequality pose fiscal and governance credit risks for states and cities. bit.ly/2B3tnhg
Airlines unlikely to fully recover before 2023, face structural changes. bit.ly/2B3tnhg
JETS
The U.S. consumer price index continues falling, sparks talk of deflation. bit.ly/2Az8uuk
Flat yield curves are a key threat to bank margins as rates stay low for longer. bit.ly/2YzKoaF
Hong Kong’s relief measures reduce pressure on bank asset quality. bit.ly/3dZgIKQ
New SEC rules on crowdfunding a boost to capital raising for startups. bit.ly/2C0SHol
Auctioneers race to unload oil equipment as drilling interest dries up. reut.rs/2BZZU8c
Senators draft plan to reform new plane design approvals. reut.rs/2C6abQq
BA
American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ: AAL) to halt cash burn by year-end. reut.rs/37sIOvr
AAL
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) downgrade Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) noting current valuation underestimates risks including increased competition. reut.rs/2zA5MEu
GS
MS
TSLA
The Fed expects household finances to suffer persistent fragilities due to shock. reut.rs/2UHLUX7
U.S. consumer confidence rises while unemployment shadow lingers. reut.rs/3cZPpPb
Fed Chair Powell is devoted to the return of a strong labor market. reut.rs/37s5ps5
Hertz Global Holdings Inc (NYSE: HTZ) seizes on speculation with stock sale. reut.rs/3edTxwx NYSE:HTZ
Sentiment: 34.3% Bullish, 27.7% Neutral, 38.1% Bearish as of 6/14/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Higher) 5,515,247,892 as of 6/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 49.7% as of 6/14/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Product Analysis:
S&P 500 (ES):
SPY
SPX
Nasdaq 100 (NQ):
QQQ
NDQ
Russell 2000 (RTY):
IWM
RUT
Gold (GC):
GLD
Crude Oil (CL):
USO
DBO
USL
Treasury Bonds (ZB):
TLT
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
