gb50k

What if this time isn't different?

A 2 year scenario projecting the financial crisis of 2008-2009 into the future

Chart (W, LOG):
  • Stocks: The averaged futures for SPX , NAS and DJ were weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see https://www.barchart.com/futures/contrac...
  • 200MA, 50MA, and 21MA
  • Today's price and date: at the intersection of the cross.
  • Financial crisis: Purple box on the left
  • Implied scenario: Purple box on the right. Left edge starts 10/5/2022 ("Today" .. for the next 10 min)


Methodology:
  • The scenario is a scaled up copy of the box at 2008-2009. It is stretched to fit the current price, and it's 3 MA's.
  • For simplicity the price / time aspect ratio was preserved.
  • Criteria for 'best fit' (using IEI ) were the absolute level and curvature of the 3 MA's. In other words, the distance between the MA's, their slopes, and the speed each slope was changing.

Main Implications:
  • The scenario implies a crash (ripped from Feb 2009) beyond the March, 2020 COVID low, as far as the highs of 2015. This is after the end of QE , when Greece went into default and the Yen was devalued overnight .
  • "Bottom" of the implied crash is one year from today (10/5/2022).

Notes:

1. IEI : I eyeballed it
2. Gann would not be happy and the result could be different on a RENKO or equivalent treatment of time (a great follow up idea)
3. The night the Yen was devalued I held positions in gold in bond futures ( GC and ZB). I have used stops without exceptions from that day on.

best graphics:
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.