What if this time isn't different?

A 2 year scenario projecting the financial crisis of 2008-2009 into the future

Chart (W, LOG):
  • Stocks: The averaged futures for SPX , NAS and DJ were weighted so that a 1 point change will imply the same change in $ terms. (For weights see
  • 200MA, 50MA, and 21MA
  • Today's price and date: at the intersection of the cross.
  • Financial crisis: Purple box on the left
  • Implied scenario: Purple box on the right. Left edge starts 10/5/2022 ("Today" .. for the next 10 min)

  • The scenario is a scaled up copy of the box at 2008-2009. It is stretched to fit the current price, and it's 3 MA's.
  • For simplicity the price / time aspect ratio was preserved.
  • Criteria for 'best fit' (using IEI ) were the absolute level and curvature of the 3 MA's. In other words, the distance between the MA's, their slopes, and the speed each slope was changing.

Main Implications:
  • The scenario implies a crash (ripped from Feb 2009) beyond the March, 2020 COVID low, as far as the highs of 2015. This is after the end of QE , when Greece went into default and the Yen was devalued overnight .
  • "Bottom" of the implied crash is one year from today (10/5/2022).


1. IEI : I eyeballed it
2. Gann would not be happy and the result could be different on a RENKO or equivalent treatment of time (a great follow up idea)
3. The night the Yen was devalued I held positions in gold in bond futures ( GC and ZB). I have used stops without exceptions from that day on.

best graphics:

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