How is a forecast a forecast, and not a guess?
Since the days of town squares, and town markets...there has always been this intellectual battle between the market sellers and the buyers. One party sets up shop with the intent of making a profit through selling something of true or perceived value to another party who may (or may not) have a perceived value or use for the seller's wares.
It is simultaneously the simplest of relationships, and one of the most complex. The attributes that govern such transactions are emotion, education, salesmanship and instinct. The transactional forces itself are so interesting to me...A book could written about it. In fact, an entire industry exists right now on the millions of books, videos and lessons, that have been authored on such an in-depth topic.
However, I'm NOT writing today to inform you how best to sell your wares. Nor I am taking time out of my weekend to educate you on how to "one-up" those wiley sellers... when buying. All of the machinations of this transactional relationship have played out countless times, and so much so, that they're now incredibly predictable. I wonder if anything else can be discovered as it pertains to the choreography of the buyer and seller. But when making a prediction on outcomes, is there a process? Is their a discipline to spot success, and or, failure?
I believe so.
There are many things that happen within our natural world that no one could be criticized for thinking they are random occurrences. The leaf that falls from the tree. Which leaf? Where that leaf falls on the ground. Directly below the tree, or is their a wind that influences it? Is it possible that much of what we observe in the natural world as random, is in fact, predictable?
Forecasting the weather with accuracy has approved greatly in the last 20 years alone. Just talk to a natural gas trader...who in my opinion could fill in as a meteorologist anywhere in a local TV market. Why is that? Because to trade natural gas, one must be a part-time weather man. To trade crude oil, one must become a geopolitical connoisseur. There are all kinds of attributes a specialized trader must acquire given the market of their specialty. However, one art is forgotten. Less appreciated. Because our society is conditioned to be impatient...given no value.
The art of observation...and might I add my own suffix...without action. The art of observation, without action. This practice allows for education, allows for experience, allows for confirmation without consequences.
In and around 1940-1941, RN Elliott stated that the Dow (which just 11 years earlier lost 70% of it's value) was about to embark on a bull market rally that would last 70 years. Having endured the great depression, on the cusp of the USA entering WWII with the attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese...can you imagine how that market forecast was received? Below...please find the aftermath of his ridiculous claim.
During the time his proclamations was made, no one had the benefit of hindsight. Suffice to say he was ridiculed. Now in retrospect, he was conservative in his forecast. Because the 2009-2010 area of the SPX would have been where he concluded this rally would end...and the market was higher by almost 800% from 2009-2022.
Therefore, with hindsight, no one would NOW argue his guess was in fact, a forecast. A forecast based on a process, steeped in discipline.
I'll conclude with the main chart above and simply say. I too am making a proclamation. I am now authoring a forecast...I too (Like Elliott then) believe I have a process and a discipline to back my statement...but you have to decide. The above chart represents within the next 3-6 years PLANET EARTH COULD LOSE HALF ITS GLOBAL NET WORTH...OR MORE.
I will concede it's human nature to ridicule what is not understood. As a species we have a long documented history of such behavior. It is also precisely why my success is based on you, the reader, and your predictable failure to not consider the above, a reality. To dismiss this proclamation. Having said all the above, can I request you do one thing that will not require much effort?
Snip this chart and save it.
Best to all,
Chris
It is simultaneously the simplest of relationships, and one of the most complex. The attributes that govern such transactions are emotion, education, salesmanship and instinct. The transactional forces itself are so interesting to me...A book could written about it. In fact, an entire industry exists right now on the millions of books, videos and lessons, that have been authored on such an in-depth topic.
However, I'm NOT writing today to inform you how best to sell your wares. Nor I am taking time out of my weekend to educate you on how to "one-up" those wiley sellers... when buying. All of the machinations of this transactional relationship have played out countless times, and so much so, that they're now incredibly predictable. I wonder if anything else can be discovered as it pertains to the choreography of the buyer and seller. But when making a prediction on outcomes, is there a process? Is their a discipline to spot success, and or, failure?
I believe so.
There are many things that happen within our natural world that no one could be criticized for thinking they are random occurrences. The leaf that falls from the tree. Which leaf? Where that leaf falls on the ground. Directly below the tree, or is their a wind that influences it? Is it possible that much of what we observe in the natural world as random, is in fact, predictable?
Forecasting the weather with accuracy has approved greatly in the last 20 years alone. Just talk to a natural gas trader...who in my opinion could fill in as a meteorologist anywhere in a local TV market. Why is that? Because to trade natural gas, one must be a part-time weather man. To trade crude oil, one must become a geopolitical connoisseur. There are all kinds of attributes a specialized trader must acquire given the market of their specialty. However, one art is forgotten. Less appreciated. Because our society is conditioned to be impatient...given no value.
The art of observation...and might I add my own suffix...without action. The art of observation, without action. This practice allows for education, allows for experience, allows for confirmation without consequences.
In and around 1940-1941, RN Elliott stated that the Dow (which just 11 years earlier lost 70% of it's value) was about to embark on a bull market rally that would last 70 years. Having endured the great depression, on the cusp of the USA entering WWII with the attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese...can you imagine how that market forecast was received? Below...please find the aftermath of his ridiculous claim.
During the time his proclamations was made, no one had the benefit of hindsight. Suffice to say he was ridiculed. Now in retrospect, he was conservative in his forecast. Because the 2009-2010 area of the SPX would have been where he concluded this rally would end...and the market was higher by almost 800% from 2009-2022.
Therefore, with hindsight, no one would NOW argue his guess was in fact, a forecast. A forecast based on a process, steeped in discipline.
I'll conclude with the main chart above and simply say. I too am making a proclamation. I am now authoring a forecast...I too (Like Elliott then) believe I have a process and a discipline to back my statement...but you have to decide. The above chart represents within the next 3-6 years PLANET EARTH COULD LOSE HALF ITS GLOBAL NET WORTH...OR MORE.
I will concede it's human nature to ridicule what is not understood. As a species we have a long documented history of such behavior. It is also precisely why my success is based on you, the reader, and your predictable failure to not consider the above, a reality. To dismiss this proclamation. Having said all the above, can I request you do one thing that will not require much effort?
Snip this chart and save it.
Best to all,
Chris
Go to ewtdaily.com for DETAILED DAILY UPDATES on this ticker, and get a 7-day FREE trial on updates on 27 unique tickers.