The Big Caps Are Sneaking Out of Their Downtrends (ETH + XRP)

We've got some nice moves for a couple of cryptocurrencies (XTZ and ATOM today), but I'm still really paying attention to these big caps because they have the most liquidity out of any other altcoin. We've seen OBV (on-balance volume) continue to skyrocket for the TOTAL2 chart, which could mean that big buyers are actively entering positions on the top two altcoins. ETH and XRP doing well would also be a very good sign for the broader crypto market. So even if you don't support these projects, I think it's in everyone's best interest for them to do well.

I think they can start moving up relatively soon, at least in terms of USD value. They seem to be trying to form a pretty solid base here. They just need to get back above the 200w MA, which isn't that far away. This analysis is just to see whether or not their Bitcoin ratios can increase as well.

On the main chart, it's clear that both XRP and ETH have been in 2-year downtrends on the log scale against Bitcoin. They both already broke their linear downtrends earlier this year.

Usually the linear downtrend breaks before the logarithmic downtrend. Both XRP and ETH have now begun to sneak out of their log downtrends. If we zoom in, you can see that they are both arguably closing daily candles outside these trends for the very first time. With Ethereum, it's a little more ambiguous, but this is how I've drawn it.

The one thing that concerns me is that ETH/BTC is about to experience a bearish cross. This has never resulted in positive price appreciation. Overall, both these big caps need to break above their daily moving averages to start looking bullish. But perhaps we're seeing the early signs of a reversal here. In early 2019, Bitcoin broke its linear downtrends on relatively low volume, generally moving slowly sideways and up. That's sort of what we're seeing here with big caps.

Potential medium-term targets are marked on the above charts in green.

I also recently made a post about why it would be insanely bullish for the altcoin market if Bitcoin dominance broke down from its rising wedge. That post is linked at bottom.

This is not financial advice. This is just a speculative chart. I'm curious to see if breaking these downtrends sneakily ends up being a good long term buy signal. As such, this post is for speculation and education only.

-Victor Cobra

Comment:

Moment of truth for ETH/BTC here. If it can't hold, it may head to some new lows on the ratio. I'm sort of doubtful of this happening, but hey, I can easily be wrong.

Comment:

Nice wick for XRP, but it needs to hold above the broken downtrend to confirm that we're not seeing new lows (like 1500 sats)

Comment:

Looks like ETH failed to break out and has headed back to lower supports. No bull run for ETH/BTC until it breaks out from the downtrend once and for all. However, XRP is back ABOVE the downtrend, while ETH is trying to break out again. This could mean that these top alts are undergoing some accumulation at current levels, as bears are having a harder time sustaining the downtrend. We'll see. I still doubt Bitcoin dominance can SUSTAIN a significant higher high from here.