ETH going for the bull flag or the triangle

BITMEX:ETHUSD   ETHUSD Perpetual Futures Contract
On the left we can see the bigger picture of ETH. The 220/240 target i mentioned a while back of the yellow triangle at the lows has been reached and extended even. This is usually a sign of strength, normally saying that we won't see a huge dump anytime soon. The dump from 2 weeks ago was probably a glitch or something, where it reached 190 while on Bitfinex it never went below the 234 during that wave. So i think it's better to use that info instead.

On the left i am trying to show, that even if the triangle breaks down, there is still a big chance that it might turn into a bull flag . We had the same thing 2 months ago, where support broke but the bulls got in and held the 150 and created a bull flag .

With a triangle at a spot like this, we usually see it reach that triangle target (and not the flag pole target). So in other words, if we break up coming days, big chance it will reach 290/300 and then simply turn down again. It could potentially even become a high for the coming months. If we drop and break down from the triangle, then seeing it move inside the 260/220 range coming month or so, it will be more likely to think the big red resistance on the left might break and that we see a much bigger rally coming months. This is because a triangle has a less solid foundation than a flag.

With a triangle we get to see higher lows. So it's more a sign of bulls being eager to get in and bears being more hesitant. So see it as if bear then simply wait for a better moment to start selling/shorting. Now with a bull flag , you can see it as if the bears go in full force, creating some lower lows. But they simply can't break the flag support because there are just too many bulls wanting to get in. If the bulls then win this fight, you can see it as if the path is clear to break resistances because the bears who shorted the triangle are already out of ammunition.

To be able what the next step might, i usually zoom in to see if we can see some footsteps telling which outcome is more likely to see happen. On the right we can see what looks like an H&S . Now this one is not great so i would not focus on it too much. But think can say that the 244/246 is an important level the past weeks. So a break of this level will very likely have some meaning. If this zone holds and bull can break that trend line and the 250ish level, than the H&S is likely out of play.

So the important levels seem to be 264 and 232 with 245 being the middle ground 254 and 240 are also levels of value. See the 245 levels as, when being above it the triangle is in favor and when below it the bull flag is in favor. The triangle breakout should happen within the coming 2/3 days max i think. If it takes longer, it will have less value, because a sideways breakout will become an option then.

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