Akil_Stokes
Long

EURUSD: Potential Bullish Cypher Pattern & Why I'm Waiting

FX:EURUSD   Euro Fx/U.S. Dollar
It's a busy Monday in the Markets as we're seeing a lot of corrections from last week's major news event. I've got a lot on my radar including potential longs on GBPJPY             & AUDUSD             . As well as a few potential shorts on GBPJPY             & USDJPY             . In fact the USDJPY             may be filled already on a bearish Cypher .

Speaking of Cyphers we have a potential bullish Cypher here on the EURUSD             down at 1.1165. Now because the risk is beyond my acceptable levels (100pips) I won't be able to enter aggressively at the D completion, rather I'll have to wait until I get an alternate reason inside the Kill Zone. in the future I'll be able to simple move my entries down to a level that will put me within that 100pips zone however I do have "rules" about when I can change "rules" so that can't happen until the end of the quarter.

There looks to be lots of movement in the market which means lots of opportunities, so i'm excited about the week ahead. I'm also excited about some testing that I'll be doing trying to "break" a level III             system to make sure all of the bugs are out. Admit it you'd be excited to if someone have you a sledge hammer and said "swing away"

Good luck out there traders and thanks for all of the kind comments from this past week's Weekend Review video. The speech that Jason Stapleton gave was great and hopefully it had an affect on your trading mindset! (Here's the link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QegwE4S1Imc)

Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst at Trade Empowered
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my similar plan simple say for noobs long 1.11 TP 1.13 SL 1.1050
GL all :D
+2 Reply
Nice. What do you mean by "noobs long?"
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sumathidenward Akil_Stokes
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mb1EsnHS/
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Akil_Stokes TOP sumathidenward
Looks like your charts didn't show up in the feed, just the links
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sumathidenward Akil_Stokes
i think so my bad
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https://www.tradingview.com/chart/mb1EsnHS/
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@Akil_Stokes great chart ........... thank you. I have also observed a Cypher pattern on the EURUSD 4H with in an Elliot wave Formation conforming to Fibonacci level. I would like to know your thoughts?
EURUSD 4H  { fibonacci;elliott wave and harmonics }
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Delta_X-ray
I don't perform any elliot wave analysis so I don't have an opinion on it sorry. In general i would say follow you plan, so if you're a Cypher pattern trader then take the Cypher, if not, I'd wait until it reaches the wave level that you're interested in and wouldn't let it influence you one way or another.
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Delta_X-ray Akil_Stokes
thank you for your feedback
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Akil_Stokes TOP Delta_X-ray
No problem
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Great Akil, I can also spot a BAT pattern on the USDJPY on the H1 chart :)
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PipSurfer PRO PipSurfer
Ans I will join u tomorrow in your Live room :)
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Can't wait to see you in there, looks like we're seeing some action this week so we should have a lot to look at
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Sweet, I can certainly see what you're looking at. hopefully the pips roll in our favor
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Akil, This week will be my sixth week in the live room. I am also waiting on the completion of the USDJPY cypher and the GBPJPY trade. However I did go short AUDUSD for a daytrade. looking for a push down into 7140's only to stop and reverse to long with a better rr on the hourly chart.

I can't wait for tommorrw. I love the live room!
Thanks
Rick R
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6 weeks and we haven't scared you away yet. We must be having some fun in there. Good luck on the short we're probably looking at the same thing htf on that pair., see you tomorrow
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Very nice Akil! looking for the same opportunity.
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Nice! Let's see if we can get down there
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bullish potential gartley

IM waiting for potential gartley, and there is a trend line support
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I don't think that's a Gartley...
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PipUnicorn PipUnicorn
I meant the blue thing
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The Cypher Pattern?
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Hey Akil, hope you had a great weekend. Thank you for sharing this great idea with all of us. All the BEST mate :)
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Akil_Stokes TOP moneymaking
Thanks, i had a very interesting weekend to put it lightly http://tradeempowered.com/week-38-trading-recap-the-right-move-isnt-always-the-most-profitable/
+1 Reply
moneymaking Akil_Stokes
Totally agree with your statement about "Process over outcome". For some reason I also sometimes slip back into the outcome type mindset and most of the time I have made wrong trading decisions. Process is definitely the way to go, if anyone wants to be in this profession for the long run. Thank you for sharing the blog Akil, I was able to connect with many key points that you mentioned :)
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Akil_Stokes TOP moneymaking
It's tough, since we're programmed to think win=good, loss=bad.
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moneymaking Akil_Stokes
Yeah, that's right. Mentally its very difficult :(
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AWESOME! AUDUSD target hit. now lets see if I can ride it back up to 7200's! good luck Akil!
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Let's go, I won't be around my computers today but hopefully I'll be able to get involved
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Hey, Akil. Nice work. I do have a rule to change my entry if the risk is more than I can accept. It works ok. The entry is either triggered giving me a better risk to reward or it's not. I don't care if it doesn't. I prefer to miss an opportunity instead of taking the risk that can potentially iliminate the profits of the last 3-5 trades (my average stop is about 70, depending on pair). I also agree with you about sample size trading. I think it's a very good idea to trade for a quarter and then do some tweaks in rules (is nessesary). I also use a sample size. It's not based on time like yours but on the number of trades. My sample is 20 trades. I can't change the rules until the sample is over. It helps me to stay focused on a stream of trades instead of one particularily taken trade. However, I don't change my basic rules - the rules I discovered in my backtesting (they consist the core of my analisys). If I do have a doubt about some of my basic rules - I will do backtesting once again to see if the rule is working. What I change after the sample is over is usually psycological rules. If you remember we talked about revenge trades recently. This is the example. My samples look much better after I added this rule into my trading plan. I feel more comfortable trading with this rule. Another example of these rules is to trade only 1 hour a day. The edge either presents in the market or not. This rule makes me trust my eye. The eye was trained good while backtesting and live trading so it requires a few seconds to recognize the edge. So, my trading is more like checking the charts. The samples looked much worse when I sat the whole day in front of the computer. The other rule is to remind myself to stay focused on skills instead of money. And so on and so forth. Yes, I totally agree with you on this part.
+2 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Alexander_Nikitin
Great post!
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Hi Akil, thanks for recommending "Trade What You See". It helped me become more consistent. Would you recommend more to read? I want to advanced patterns like the cypher pattern here.
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There aren't any books that include the cypher pattern since we only found it a few years ago, but I think trading In The Zone is a great book along with One Good Trade. They're not really technical books that talk about specific patterns but they are some of the best trading books that I've read. Here's a link to a video i did on my Top 5 trading Reads at the time. It's a little old but most of them are the same https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UuME_NuvrCs
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PipUnicorn Akil_Stokes
Ok thank you! I'm in the middle of Trading in the Zone now.
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No problem, that's an awesome book. Wish i would have read it much earlier in my trading career than when i did
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If you're looking for patterns only Try Scot Carney's Harmonic trading Series
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Akil, I liked your phrase last week, was perfect: " Although trading is technically a gamble, it’s a gamble I only want to take when I feel that I have the edge. "
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Thanks,
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Excellent Akil, same view, except I had no pattern. Might be worth shorting half the CD leg too, if we get a retrace.
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Excellent analysis Akil .. as we've gotten used to :)
I've been eyeballing the formation of this potential Cypher since late last week and we are nearing completion now. I'll also be looking for some other confirmation on the lower TF because there is not that much structure around the 0.786 retracement. Also as far as profit targets is concerned, the 0.382 is kind of in the middle of nowhere (between structure levels) but the 0.5 retracement and 0.618 retracement align nicely with structure.

Anyways .... may the pips be with you and keep up the good work ! :)
+1 Reply
Akil_Stokes TOP Nico.Muselle
Thanks Nico! Yeah I';m with you, I'm not a fan of the stop level as well all concerning structure. This could end up being one of those opportunities where we use our pattern rules to get involved but can maximize targets/minimize risk with our knowledge of structure
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complete pattern.. and enter BUY zone.... superb!!!!
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Actually not. The price have to almost be in the corner.
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Yup, just make sure you follow your rules
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putratimor41 putratimor41
what about that? :)
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Akil_Stokes TOP putratimor41
What pattern is that?
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I expect this pattern to fail because we need to test sig level gained at about 1070. This is the problem of just looking at patterns. Doing this limits your view of what's really happening on bigger time frames. Are we not retracing the leg that started from lows at 0850s? Where are we in relation to the leg? Have we tested the leg start? Where is momo? If you're just looking at patterns and not asking the above questions, you trading impaired.
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Akil_Stokes TOP TradeVulture
Thank you for sharing your opinion
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Very nice chart there! I truly believe this setup will be a winner. After that, i think price will sell off for a bullish gartley completion with its D point at a key zone. Good luck Akil..!
snapshot
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Akil_Stokes TOP Fxprotrader
Thanks for sharing, good luck to you as well.
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Akil_Stokes TOP Fxprotrader
Just remember we never know if the trade will be a winner or a loser. Our job is to simply consistently play the odds, knowing that in the long run the expectancy will be in our favor.
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Fxprotrader Akil_Stokes
Absolutely right..! Trading is a science of numbers.. I just wanted to say that your cypher pattern is a high probability setup.. :)
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snapshot


Wanted to share
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Akil_Stokes TOP joe.francis.507
Thanks for the share Joe
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joe.francis.507 Akil_Stokes
Thank you. I'm always searching for your ideas.
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joe.francis.507 Akil_Stokes
This was too awesome!! Learning from the best
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just asking about opinion, the price moved to 1.1105, so does to targets have to move to 38.2 of C leg to 1.1105 or remain as 38.2 retracement of c to d leg at entry?
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Akil_Stokes TOP Mother-ofChinKeat
Fibonacci's should be rolled with the price action
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thanks Akil, but wouldn't this result in an inverted risk:reward ratio as i roll the fib?
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Akil_Stokes TOP Mother-ofChinKeat
Yes, that will be a result if the D leg continues to slide past the original entry
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Thanks, Akil. You are GREAT!!!
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Akil_Stokes TOP Mother-ofChinKeat
No problem ;-)
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Bear Cypher on NU
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joe.francis.507 joe.francis.507
snapshot
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There's a potential Bat pattern setting up alongside the cypher's CD leg completing right below structure on the 4 hour, isn't it? A-B-C is formed, now price only has to head north and break above B. Entry at 1.14180, stops above structure and 1.15 even handle. 1:1.21 risk/reward for target 1 and about 1:2 risk/reward for target 2 according to my analysis.
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Akil_Stokes TOP Kjetil_Johannesen
Correct, if we continue up we'd be looking at a potential bearish bat. I think you have the wrong area for stops though unless we're looking at different patterns. The bat I'm looking at completes above 1.16's. I think i can see the smaller one you're talking about. Looks good too, but we need a "C" leg to form first
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Akil_Stokes TOP Kjetil_Johannesen
Doing my post New York analysis now, and yes you're dead on. great spot!
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My RAS is improving. :)
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Akil_Stokes TOP Kjetil_Johannesen
It's an amazing thing once it starts to click and you start seeing them everywhere
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I forgot to share with you the link but here's a look at some live structure/pattern based analysis we did on the EURUSD yesterday "Successful Trading: A Great trading Success Story" The EURUSD trade starts at minute 17:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnzLKZhfSzM
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