ridethepig

EURUSD - Election Map

Short
FOREXCOM:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
πŸ“… October 18th
EURUSD - Election Map

Eurobonds positional play


The manoeuvre chosen by Europe to consolidate the debt cannot be criticised. It was inevitable since the Maastricht Treaty that in order to keep the currency alive they would eventually need to obtain with it 'federalised debt' in order to compete in the Premier league with US and China. Once Covid forced Merkel et al to 'bend the knee', euro buyers obtained control on the break of 1.09x and played an impulsive move towards 1.20x. Of course this move was not without venom and pressed against the ECB.


An impulsive move, but one with a deeper meaning. Markets and bookies have completely miss-priced (i) the odds of a dem clean sweep being +ve for risk assets and (ii) spillovers associated with further lockdowns from covid chapter II.

In many ways Covid has revealed how far the West has fallen behind in some places. However, no matter how healthy or greener the grass may look on the other side to some right now, a Biden victory will still face THE SAME CHALLENGES. Dems are throwing everything into winning and forgetting that even if they inherit the office they have done so at the cost of huge promises to public sector unions and etc which is a real problem for them.

Expecting EURUSD to come under a lot of stress in order to protect from increased election risk, lockdowns and contractions in globalisation / capital formations in the immediate term. For those only interested in adding longs, this 1.15/1.14 area is where we should be hell-bent on loading full sized positions. To the topside invalidation of the 'B' in this ABC corrective swing will come from a break above 1.183x.

Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming πŸ‘ or πŸ‘Ž
Comment: Very much sentiment trading with little on the data front. Watch out for ECB and Fed talking heads.

Headlines around Brexit, Covid and US fiscal package will continue to act as election positioning triggers.
πŸ“Twitter: https://twitter.com/ridepigs

πŸ“Telegram: https://t.me/ridethepig

Comments

Are we still heading for 4th? or that has already gone? If gone, The equity markets will likely keep rallying on the upsdide?
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GBPUSD please?

Thanks
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thanks for sharing and awesome work there! Agree with your view, this is what I see on EURUSD :
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Same idea
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Am i correct reading you have now turned positive on stocks regardless of who wins the US elections?
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YBearBull lu1977hk
@lu1977hk, stocks will move if the stimuls will be approved and both biden and trump will approve it after the election
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US10Y-DE10Y is apparently rising lately. This might mean USD is possibly having an edge over EUR, unless of course the rise in US yield is temporary.
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ridethepig i_am_siew
Agree @i_am_siew, tracking exactly the same flows here:

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