Gold - When A New ATH Prints, Will You Get Trapped?

COMEX:GC1!   Gold Futures
It's not that I am fundamentally bearish on gold. Actually, I am fundamentally bullish on gold.

But it's because I think the fundamentals of gold are bullish that this commodity is not bound to pump while the MMs have tipped their hands that they're going to sell Artificial Intelligence and Chinese Communist Party garbage to a willing horde of retail zombies and dead money hedge funds.

And so if gold is really to return to relatively significant lows, like say $1,500, the purpose would be accumulation for $2,500 and $3,000.

And if that's to happen, with the way the last three months of price action has been, the gold MM, which is really quite a shark, is extremely unlikely to allow the funds and retail cowboys who have been short under the triple top ATH at $2,089 to enjoy the ride down with them

This monthly is too obvious that new lows aren't going to come before the highs are purged:

And the weekly shows that the $1,936 dump rebalanced the gap created by the big March candle.

A significant calculation in the markets is rumors that came out on Friday that the CCP would be pumping some QE to save its crashing markets.

This news came on the back of names as big as Elon Musk, Jamie Dimon, Henry Kissinger, and Condoleezza Rice either traveling to the mainland for the first time in years or attending virtually, along with the Starbucks and Pfizer CEOs.

So what's going on, if you ask me, is that the Party has once again been given a blood transfusion, and that blood transfusion may be in exchange for that gold it spent the last several months buying.

This would naturally mean that gold would pump so it can be sold at high prices and bought back even lower, with the dual purpose being that it would cripple the CCP's gold reserves, which are loaned on leverage.

Whenever you hear someone barking about how strong the CCP is, or worse, if they conflate "China" to "the Chinese Communist Party," you need to take a step back and ask yourself how a country whose lost tens or hundreds of millions of people to a pandemic it's still doing everything it can to cover up could possibly be strong.

It's not that the CCP is going to invade Taiwan. It's that NATO and the other global factions are thinking about how they can take over Beijing via Taiwan when the Party falls in the imminent future.

The persecution of Falun Gong by the Jiang Faction and the Communist Party itself in 1999 wasn't and isn't Xi Jinping's fault, but as the Party Chairman, his head hangs in the noose for this crime, a weakness that anyone can exploit at any time to get rid of Xi and the Party at the same time.

But the problem is that a lot of the western world and Europe and other countries have participated in the persecution, which has targeted 100 million spiritual practitioners and gone so far as to commit the sin of live organ harvesting.

And so this means that the situation in China is Mutually Assured Destruction, a real Game of Thrones, and ultimately the Heavens are playing them all for a fool together.

So, here's the trade:

  1. Expect the $1,936 pivot to hold. (But $1,920 will also work)
  2. Buy really here or anywhere under $1,950.
  3. Be patient and don't get scared
  4. Sell $2,150
  5. Collect 7-12%
  6. Buy wine and whiskey and treat your friends

Now the kicker is that shorting gold at $2,150-2,170 will be a really good trade, but for the bear case to really apply you want to see a liquidity purge and distribution, rather than a sweep.

Like, you want to see a wick or tweezers form on monthly bars, but you want to see gold spend some daily and/or weekly candles distributing and getting knocked down and trying again and getting knocked down over $2,100.

Otherwise an ATH that doesn't show signs of having its fever break can go quite literally anywhere, although the macro and timing does not currently make sense for this to be the case at present.

One of the best ways to play this is in the GLD ETF. Calls when it trades to about $178.5 with at least 3 months on the contract will print a lot of money closing over $200 if my trade is correct.

I can only tell you that the world is in trouble. A bull impulse when breadth is poor, macro conditions are poor, the timing doesn't make sense... all of them should be causes for alarm.

One day these distractions won't be maintained anymore and there will be significant problems we all have to face outside of the computer in the real world.

To make it through that, you have to be a good person, cultivate virtue, and go back to valuing and maintaining our traditions again.
Okay, now that Gold doesn't want to raid $2,000 yet, the setup for a long entry is getting pretty close.

I gander you have to wait until mid next week before it both bottoms and starts to recover based on the way equity markets are acting.
Really notable here is the GLD ETF has not made a new low yet.

Significant in that hanging out just mere points above the 50% is strange.

I think a long on the raid and the worst case scenario is having to sell $185 instead of gold printing an ATH.
Notable is that the GLD ETF still doesn't make a low even with Gold swinging 2% intraday.

It's coming.
Notable here is that the GLD ETF has breached the bottom, as anticipated.

Yet Gold Futures is still flirting with it.

$1,873 may be the target area for the algorithm, sweeping out all the sellers on a "loss of support" of $1,900.

Right now with Gold not having made a new low in 2 days but also not being bullish, is I'm expecting a run back to $1,960-something.

Followed by a dump to $1,880.

And from there after the sellers under $1,900 have been capitalized we'll see if there really is ammunition to make a high in July.
Gold has bounced sharply above the $1,900 psy level, taking out two upside pivots along the way.

The GLD ETF traded into a gap on its daily bars.

It's possible this is the bottom. But $1,950 looks in order now.
Gold ticked up while SPX topped today. At the same time, the dollar index dropped.

Based on how the compass points on weekly bars, I believe that gold rallies are a sell until gold prints $1,850.

I believe that in the next rally, gold will accompany SPX to a top.

And then we will have calamity in this world.
I will post a revised call on Gold in the future, but for now I think this bounce at $1,900, albeit fake, actually has as much as $2,020 in it to the upside.

It'll be a bit before we get a new all time high. Early goldbugs who are "buying the breakout" are going to get hurt.
Gold is definitely on the move to the upside.

I have a sneaking suspicion the target is actually like $2,030~

Be long near/above $2,000 with reservation.


The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.