DAX - impulsive decline, picture looks increasingly bearish

FX:GER30   DAX Index
It's been a while since I updated the long term count.

My intermediate bearish view was confirmed in the mean time with DAX putting in a spike above the previously indicated magenta TL from the ATH , however quickly losing momentum and failing also to keep above the 200d MA. The decline from ATH was very choppy, with waves which were difficult to count, so there is a possibility that this big wave is all just a corrective wave 4 in the form of a double 3 (see the blue count - A-B-C, then the red A-B-C up, and now could be just another bigger A-B-C down). The other option is the more bearish one in which we have a nested wave down (a series of 1-2 waves, with the current wave being either a 3 or yet another serie of 1-2).

However, regardless of the bigger term picture, what is more worrying for longs is the fact that the decline off the 30th of November lower high developed into 5 waves and took out the September low, therefore cancelling the more bullish counts which were based on the red C wave being a 5 waver and actually not a C wave but a 1 or a wave part of a bullish move. This means that the next bounce (which could be quite big) will most likely be a corrective wave only, so an A-B-C, which would be a nice short opp , since the following decline will take out the lows at which we will bottom these days (or maybe weeks).

On the more immediate term, it's difficult to say where we will bottom. We have already 5 waves in place, but the 5th could always extend. In any case I would use the next bounce as a short opp , rather than try to buy it.

What is most interesting is that the LT projection from mcm, nailed a very important intermediate top - the high of the red 2 from Dec 30th.

For questions about the analysis feel free to visit the site or contact me via email at

GL to your trades!


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