I did this once before last year but I thought it is good once again to repost how I see the market, since inception in the early 1900's to today. From my perspective, we are nearing the completion of a supercycle 5th wave. And as you can see from the chart (which trading view does not go back to the beginning...see a historical chart if you want), supercycle wave 1 peaked just before the start of the 1929 crash and the great depression. Since then we have essentially been in a bull market with the exception of the 2000's which clearly appears to resemble a wave 4 correction. As you can see, what has been occurring since February isn't even noticeable. Next we will zoom in a little more to the weekly.
Although it appears cluttered...try to bear with me as I am not about to clean it up more just to satisfy your eyes.
Every once in a while I try to take a look at what I had going on and see if anything that I have learned over the last year or so may have changed my perspective. And the answer is yes....slightly. SO I will explain.
Moving right along. Take a look at the start of the supercycle 5th wave which began at the 2009 bottom. I believe this is a more accurate count. The blue wave 2 only has a little more than a .382% retracement. So that would mean that the 4th wave correction (for the blue count) Is going to be over .50% and likely reach the .618% retracement, whenever it tops. As you can see, I do not think we are there quite yet. I am thinking that may not happen until the middle of beginning or middle of 2020. When that does happen, as you can see, it will be severe. Why so severe. Because the higher we go, the more points the percentages equate to. So while the actual points drop may look similar to the 2008 - 2009 dump, the percentage is not as great. So while drawing/updating this chart, the time proportions and Fib price extentions appear to bring us into 2020. (The other reason is that I don't think the powers that be, who are behind the scenes in American and Global politics and world banking....Don't like Trump and they may trigger a market correction to try to knock him out of office. It would have to be scary and start several months before the 2020 election to scare people away from voting for him). But that's just a conspiracy theory. ;) also notice that you can barely make out the correction that started in February of this year. Kind of crazy isn't it.
Next I would like to zoom in even more to where I think we are now.
I put this sub wave 1 (orange) where I did because when I zoom in to the prior dip, it appears to me to only be wave 4 of 5. Either way, it does not really matter because the fib retracement for wave 2 is very shallow. Which means that the next correction is supposed to be deep (which we are experiencing now). And I do not think we are finished yet.
I zoom in even more.
As you can see, we haven't even broke the .50% retracement yet. If we stayed in the wedge, then we could break the .50% and that may be my first target. But I would not be surprised that we get a wick that drops into the .618% green box range. Then I think a great long position can be started.
For this next part....maybe I am wrong and we have already completed our a,b,c correction and are already starting into the final wave c drop. But that would mean that the 4th wave last a day and that just seemed too short. The reversal in price at the end of the day was interesting and we will see what happens over the next couple days to help tell the story.
and now the 5 minute. Good Luck
Although it appears cluttered...try to bear with me as I am not about to clean it up more just to satisfy your eyes.
Every once in a while I try to take a look at what I had going on and see if anything that I have learned over the last year or so may have changed my perspective. And the answer is yes....slightly. SO I will explain.
Moving right along. Take a look at the start of the supercycle 5th wave which began at the 2009 bottom. I believe this is a more accurate count. The blue wave 2 only has a little more than a .382% retracement. So that would mean that the 4th wave correction (for the blue count) Is going to be over .50% and likely reach the .618% retracement, whenever it tops. As you can see, I do not think we are there quite yet. I am thinking that may not happen until the middle of beginning or middle of 2020. When that does happen, as you can see, it will be severe. Why so severe. Because the higher we go, the more points the percentages equate to. So while the actual points drop may look similar to the 2008 - 2009 dump, the percentage is not as great. So while drawing/updating this chart, the time proportions and Fib price extentions appear to bring us into 2020. (The other reason is that I don't think the powers that be, who are behind the scenes in American and Global politics and world banking....Don't like Trump and they may trigger a market correction to try to knock him out of office. It would have to be scary and start several months before the 2020 election to scare people away from voting for him). But that's just a conspiracy theory. ;) also notice that you can barely make out the correction that started in February of this year. Kind of crazy isn't it.
Next I would like to zoom in even more to where I think we are now.
I zoom in even more.
As you can see, we haven't even broke the .50% retracement yet. If we stayed in the wedge, then we could break the .50% and that may be my first target. But I would not be surprised that we get a wick that drops into the .618% green box range. Then I think a great long position can be started.
For this next part....maybe I am wrong and we have already completed our a,b,c correction and are already starting into the final wave c drop. But that would mean that the 4th wave last a day and that just seemed too short. The reversal in price at the end of the day was interesting and we will see what happens over the next couple days to help tell the story.
and now the 5 minute. Good Luck
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IT appears to me that we are in a a,b,c,d,e corrective pattern. There appears to be three wave structures in each move. I drew the three wave moves in yellow. Sorry if it is sloppy. If I am correct then this should do a very small move up before continuing down to the .50% to .618% area before starting its next move up. I think it should finish around the next FOMC meeting. I would imagine that they will hold off on the rate hike and that could be the stimulus for the next move up.
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seems to be following along nicely. I do not expect a rate hike in May. The worried markets could drop a little right before the hike.
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Well it looks like it did exactly what I thought it would do. That appears to be a very nice reversal bounce off the 50 Week MA. So we should get 5 small waves up for this 1st larger wave 1 which I am estimating will top at a retest of our all time highs. www.tradingview.com/x/po1nf00I/I am looking forward to play the Vix for the wave 2 drop.
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Sorry ...the chart did not load...here it is
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nothing new to add. Still trending the way I thought. We appear to be in a small wave 4. Wave 5 should begin soon. It also appears that we will top around the next FOMC. Maybe a couple days before. It should be a good short term VIX play.
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4 hour charts SP500
Ok...so what is going to happen next? Well I am watching two things. The first idea is that we completed an a,b,c,d,e triangle and broke out into our 1st wave up with a deeper wave 2 on deck for the rate hike. However, I am wondering if instead of an a - e correction earlier, that we only did an a,b,c with us being about to complete the 3rd wave (refer to the red count). To answer that, we will have to see how deep the next correction goes. I still feel that there is going to be a much much deeper correction near the end of the year....probably starting in September and dropping through the mid term elections. Maybe it will be nothing more than the central bankers trying to help the Democrats get elected and make Trump a lame duck already. Who knows. But the corruption runs deep. If that's is the case then we are probably following the red count and will complete the 5 waves up for the 5th of the 5th of the much larger 3rd wave. Not to mention, the stock market usually has an approximate 8 year cycle and we are very much due for this cycle to end and the next cycle to begin. I do think we will have a mini recession from this correction. And then we will start the last 5th wave of the larger supercycle 5th. This should be a parabolic bubble phase and I think it will break DOW 40,000 before it is finished. GL in the short term though.
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4 hour chart
Based on what I see right now, this does not look like the bigger drop I was expecting from last week. This looks like a small wave 4 . That being said, I am expecting the market to retest the recent low so any profit you make (maybe tomorrow) I think it would be safe to take it. Just a suggestion. You make your own trades.
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SO I have two potential counts. My preferred count that I see is that we are finishing up the 1st wave possibly at the next rate hike and will do a sharp 2 down.
The second idea is also place on the chart, (with the pink larger ABC) where we are still in a wave 4 consolidation since February and that we are simply going to make a C wave down. Its about the same any way you slice it. Timing is always the hard part. I am simply guessing on the time for this to roll over as I have to see how price moves in the next couple weeks.
The second idea is also place on the chart, (with the pink larger ABC) where we are still in a wave 4 consolidation since February and that we are simply going to make a C wave down. Its about the same any way you slice it. Timing is always the hard part. I am simply guessing on the time for this to roll over as I have to see how price moves in the next couple weeks.
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Updated chart with what I believe is the current wave count. Possible rate hike on August 1st or some other event that may start the larger wave 2 or C wave.
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SP 500
I just noticed the three wave patterns. This drop today may only be the start of the zig before the zag back up. Stay alert.
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Arrows tell the story. This is what I think is coming next. Estimating middle of August before the larger drop.
The reason why I drew the arrow down to the .782% was because if this is a beginning diagnol then it should retrace deeper than .618%. But there are no guarentees. Just a thought.
The reason why I drew the arrow down to the .782% was because if this is a beginning diagnol then it should retrace deeper than .618%. But there are no guarentees. Just a thought.
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So far so good. Looking for an RSI bearish divergence to form as price makes a slightly higher high.
Oh by the way. The 20 month MA just so happens to be climbing along the black trend line at the bottom of the screen. I put a blue arrow to point out the location. Seems to be a good bounce area when this drops. I still think we are in a small fourth wave. I guess we will see next week if I am correct about that.
So far so good. Looking for an RSI bearish divergence to form as price makes a slightly higher high.
Oh by the way. The 20 month MA just so happens to be climbing along the black trend line at the bottom of the screen. I put a blue arrow to point out the location. Seems to be a good bounce area when this drops. I still think we are in a small fourth wave. I guess we will see next week if I am correct about that.
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Getting closer to the September rate hike. I think we are going to push higher until the rate hike. They want a hike. They wont let the market drop before that or else they cant raise the rates.
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SP500 update 08/26/18
I am also giving an idea of an expanding flat pattern that we may be in the process of creating. Actually, I am kind of leaning that way over the wave 1, 2 count that I posted previously. Either way, the drop should be similar from the top. So lets look at the expanding flat idea.
So first I would like to point out the purple arrow point at the fib measurement of what I believe is the smaller 5th wave. Notice the 1.618 to 1.75 zone. Seems to be lining up nicely for the September rate hike. Then with the expanding flat idea lets look at the fib measurement for the blue arrow. This measurement is taken from the drop in February and as you can see, the expanding flat zone of 1.236 to 1.382 is lining up nicely with the 5th wave measurement. As you can see I do not think we will reach 3000 before the drop.
Now lets focus on potential drops depths. The pink arrow is my fib measurement of the February "A" move down. Being that I do not believe that the drop will fall below the black uptrend line, I am estimating a top in the green zone. The drop does not have to be a 100% exact movement of the drop in Feb but is could. These are just approximate measurements that I am keeping an eye on. Just an idea. GL
I am also giving an idea of an expanding flat pattern that we may be in the process of creating. Actually, I am kind of leaning that way over the wave 1, 2 count that I posted previously. Either way, the drop should be similar from the top. So lets look at the expanding flat idea.
Now lets focus on potential drops depths. The pink arrow is my fib measurement of the February "A" move down. Being that I do not believe that the drop will fall below the black uptrend line, I am estimating a top in the green zone. The drop does not have to be a 100% exact movement of the drop in Feb but is could. These are just approximate measurements that I am keeping an eye on. Just an idea. GL
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Whoops....that last snapshot did not include the pink arrow. here it is
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SP 500 weekly longer term prospect
first....I am not going to clean up the chart. Second ...notice the arrows from my previous post. Third, being that the world central banks hold the majority of the assets of all markets, including the US market, they are in full control and have a big red button that CAN be pushed. (slight exageration of course). But , if the globalist want to influence an election to sway the American people towards another candidate, then all they have to do is crash the market a decent period of time before the election. I find it interesting that elliot wave is lining up the way it is. I also find it interesting that Trump has started to say that if the Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates that the markets will crash. I think he has the same chart that I have and is using his public forum to take the narrative away from the central bankers so he can properly point the finger at those who are really to blame every time the market crashes. Time will tell. Just be on guard.
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SP500 1 hours chart
so close...I think any day now
so close...I think any day now
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SP 500
Well it appears that this impulsive move down is matching the move down from February. That being said, if this stops around the blue box then I think it is safe to say this is a running flat and that we have been in a lengthy 4th wave since February. We have to wait and see.
That means that we have a long way to go before we end the large 3rd wave.
That means that we have a long way to go before we end the large 3rd wave.