Bull Trap from Last Week Re-testing Key Support
In our last trading plans published on Wed., 12/07, we wrote: "Last two sessions turned the recent spike up into a bull trap. However, our models are indicating that the index is likely to find some support around the 3910-3915 range. Longs might want to wait to see if the index holds this level, and shorts need to be nimble in taking their profits if it does". Our models went into an indeterminate state since then and have come out with some trading levels only this morning.
If you went to sleep after reading our last trading plan and are waking up today, you would not realize that a full week of trading transpired since then, as we are exactly where we were then! The bounce from our published support level proved only short-lived post the FOMC rate decision yesterday, and the index is feeling heavy again. With the key support level of 3900-3910 in the range again, BOTH bulls and bears need to be nimble in any positions they open today, as any bounce or breakdown could be swift and spiky.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going long on a break above 3955 or 3925 with a 35-point trailing stop and a hard stop on a break below 3940, and going short on a break below 3930 or 3895 with a 40-point trailing stop and a hard stop on a break above 3913. Models also indicate instituting a break-even hard stop once a position gets into a 10-point profit level.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for THU. 12/15:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3955, 3948, or 3915 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3940, 3933 or 3910 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 3963, and short exits on a break above 3896. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night!
LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! *****
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #fomc
In our last trading plans published on Wed., 12/07, we wrote: "Last two sessions turned the recent spike up into a bull trap. However, our models are indicating that the index is likely to find some support around the 3910-3915 range. Longs might want to wait to see if the index holds this level, and shorts need to be nimble in taking their profits if it does". Our models went into an indeterminate state since then and have come out with some trading levels only this morning.
If you went to sleep after reading our last trading plan and are waking up today, you would not realize that a full week of trading transpired since then, as we are exactly where we were then! The bounce from our published support level proved only short-lived post the FOMC rate decision yesterday, and the index is feeling heavy again. With the key support level of 3900-3910 in the range again, BOTH bulls and bears need to be nimble in any positions they open today, as any bounce or breakdown could be swift and spiky.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models indicate going long on a break above 3955 or 3925 with a 35-point trailing stop and a hard stop on a break below 3940, and going short on a break below 3930 or 3895 with a 40-point trailing stop and a hard stop on a break above 3913. Models also indicate instituting a break-even hard stop once a position gets into a 10-point profit level.
By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for THU. 12/15:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3955, 3948, or 3915 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3940, 3933 or 3910 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 3963, and short exits on a break above 3896. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night!
LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! *****
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #fomc
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From The CFA Institute:
tradersai.com/14625-2/
blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/12/15/what-can-ai-do-for-investment-portfolios-a-case-study/
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From The CFA Institute:
tradersai.com/14625-2/
blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/12/15/what-can-ai-do-for-investment-portfolios-a-case-study/
Join our substack: tradersai.substack.com/
