Fed Pivot Hope Turned Into a Bull Trap; Approaching Support
In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this".
Last two sessions turned the recent spike up into a bull trap. However, our models are indicating that the index is likely to find some support around the 3910-3915 range. Longs might want to wait to see if the index holds this level, and shorts need to be nimble in taking their profits if it does.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models went into today's regular session with a short opened on Monday, 12/05, at 4014.57 with a 38-point trailing stop which was tightened to a 33-point trailing stop on Tue, 12/06. This trail from yesterday's low of 3918.39 was hit at 3951.39 within the first ten minutes of today's open, closing out the short with a gain of 73.18 index points. Models indicate staying flat until posted otherwise.
Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for WED. 12/07:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3948, 3931, or 3912 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3926 or 3908 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 3958, and short exits on a break above 3893. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:01 pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night!
LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! *****
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
In our trading plans published post-NFP on Fri., 12/02, we wrote: "After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this".
Last two sessions turned the recent spike up into a bull trap. However, our models are indicating that the index is likely to find some support around the 3910-3915 range. Longs might want to wait to see if the index holds this level, and shorts need to be nimble in taking their profits if it does.
Positional Trading Models: Our positional trading models went into today's regular session with a short opened on Monday, 12/05, at 4014.57 with a 38-point trailing stop which was tightened to a 33-point trailing stop on Tue, 12/06. This trail from yesterday's low of 3918.39 was hit at 3951.39 within the first ten minutes of today's open, closing out the short with a gain of 73.18 index points. Models indicate staying flat until posted otherwise.
Positional Models assume that we are trading an instrument that trades the futures hours, with the trailing and other stops effective overnight.
Intraday/Aggressive Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today.
Trading Plans for WED. 12/07:
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 3948, 3931, or 3912 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 3926 or 3908 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 3958, and short exits on a break above 3893. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 01:01 pm ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
***** No Idle Analysis-paralysis here! Only actionable trading plans - every morning! And, transparent, verifiable results of each and every trading plan, every night!
LET THE RESULTS SPEAK FOR OUR MODELS! See for yourself how our Morning Trading Plans have been doing for the last one month or one year or since started! *****
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #fomc, #fed, #newhigh, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #powell, #interestrates, #rates, #earnings, #midterms, #elections, #cpi, #fedpivot, #shortsqueeze, #bulltrap, #nfp, #nonfarmpayrolls, #jobs, #pmi, #ism
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From The CFA Institute:
tradersai.com/14625-2/
blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/12/15/what-can-ai-do-for-investment-portfolios-a-case-study/
Join our substack: tradersai.substack.com/
From The CFA Institute:
tradersai.com/14625-2/
blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/12/15/what-can-ai-do-for-investment-portfolios-a-case-study/
Join our substack: tradersai.substack.com/
