Here is the yearly chart of the SP500. This is now really ultra longterm. But in order to find out what would happen in the case of a
recession, it is really useful to look at such long timeframes.
We see that in the past, the middle yearly Bollinger Band always provided support. Even in the insane crash of 29 and the following recession, it went
briefly below the middle Bband, but bounced back, and oscillated around the Bband for over 10 years. In 2008 it also went below the Bband briefly, but
bounced back again, the middle Bband again providing good support.
This time, the same will probably happen. We might see a dip down as low as 1300, in the extreme case, stabilizing around 1500-1700, and then a period of recession
for around 2 years. Then afterwards resuming of the bullmarket.
This is of course only valid should we really now get into a recession. If suddenly by some miracle the virus crisis is over faster than we think, then of course
also the stockmarket will improve quite fast again, and this will end up being more like the 1987 crash, where we had a quite fast recovery, and not like 2008.
We have to wait and see how the global situation will develop now globally.
recession, it is really useful to look at such long timeframes.
We see that in the past, the middle yearly Bollinger Band always provided support. Even in the insane crash of 29 and the following recession, it went
briefly below the middle Bband, but bounced back, and oscillated around the Bband for over 10 years. In 2008 it also went below the Bband briefly, but
bounced back again, the middle Bband again providing good support.
This time, the same will probably happen. We might see a dip down as low as 1300, in the extreme case, stabilizing around 1500-1700, and then a period of recession
for around 2 years. Then afterwards resuming of the bullmarket.
This is of course only valid should we really now get into a recession. If suddenly by some miracle the virus crisis is over faster than we think, then of course
also the stockmarket will improve quite fast again, and this will end up being more like the 1987 crash, where we had a quite fast recovery, and not like 2008.
We have to wait and see how the global situation will develop now globally.