SPX Daily neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. *US June Retail Sales was reported this morning and beat the consensus estimate (0.8%) by 0.2% coming in at 1%; compared to last month's retail sales number of -0.1%, it's reasonable to suggest that consumer demand is returning after six consecutive months of shrinkage (Jan 2.7%, Feb 1.7%, March 1.2%, April 0.7%, May -0.1%). One of the primary goals of the Fed raising FFR is to temper economic activity (lessen demand). The Fed announced QT and the possibility of rate hikes in December of 2021, what followed was six months of Retail Sales (consumer demand) shrinkage; the Fed didn't start raising FFR until March 2022 and QT began in June 2022, a testament to how powerful even just words from the Fed can be. This is relevant because these are things to consider when determining how far ahead or behind money markets are, and begs the question once again, have financial markets already priced in a recession? It's hard to say when Federal Reserve Governor Waller says he needs to review Retail Sales and Housing Starts before committing to a more than 75bps rate hike on 07/27, while St. Louis Federal Reserve President Bullard says that Core PCE inflation hasn't peaked yet but that there isn't too much difference between 75bps and 100bps on 07/27. Equities, Cryptos, and Commodities (aside from Gold, Copper, Palladium, Wheat and Soy) are up; Treasuries, VIX, DXY down. Housing Starts and Building Permits numbers are to be released at 830am (EST) on 07/19.* Price is currently trending up at $3870 and is on the verge of testing the uptrend line from 06/16 at $3880 as resistance after bouncing at $3707 minor support. Volume is currently Low and on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session. Parabolic SAR at $3938 minor resistance, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 49 after bouncing at 42, the next resistance is at 53. Stochastic is on the verge of crossing over bullish at 37 after bouncing at 25; the next support is at 18 and resistance at 48. MACD is currently trending up at -31 after bouncing at the uptrend line from March 2020 at -37 as support (which is simultaneously reversing a soft peak formation), the next resistance is at -11. ADX is currently trending sideways at 20 as Price is pushing higher, this is neutral at the moment; if ADX was to start trending up with Price this would be bullish, and if it trends down as Price goes up this would be bearish. If Price is able to break above the uptrend line from 06/16 at $3880, it will be forced to contend with the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at $3938 minor resistance. However, if Price is rejected here then it will likely retest $3707 minor support before potentially retesting $3508 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3938.