1871-2022 S&P 500 Secular Bull vs. Bear Markets SPX SPY
I wanted to share this chart, as a couple of things stood out when thinking about past bull & bear secular market cycles vs. the current secular bull market that we’ve been in for the last 10+ years since the 08-09’ GFC (Great Financial Crisis).
First, for those who say “investors can't or shouldn’t time the markets", I very much disagree with this logic (or Wall Street marketing) as there are plenty of signals, cyclical trends, leading indicators, etc., that give investors clues as to what likely lies ahead — based on probabilities.
And while nobody can be 100% certain as to the exact pathway of markets, given the macro cross-currents that are in front of us — we can 100% say that we have been & still are in a secular bull market. Until this trend changes, the “crash” that many were calling for in 22’, if not expecting for 23’ could possibly take longer to play out than many realize when looking at previous bull vs. bear secular market cycles.
Second, looking at the attached chart(s), this is also why timing and duration matter.
If you are entering retirement toward the latter part of a secular bull market, it might be best to reduce risk & shift from capital appreciation to capital preservation. Examples of this include leading up The Great Depression, 1950’s post-WWII boom prior to the 1970’s Stagflation Era, & into the end of the Tech Boom of the .com era leading into 2001.
On the flip side, if you are in your saving years (20’s-30’s+), then it is during these secular bear markets that you really want to be accumulating & building your asset base for the next bull market phase that is likely ahead in the coming years as the trend higher always begins during the bear market bottoming process (see dotted black lines on charts).
Third, looking at the current cycle & zooming in on the charts from yearly (large picture) to monthly chart — we can see that we are still technically in a secular bull market. And considering the previous two major bull market cycles of the 1950/60’s (18 years) & 1980’s up until the early 2000’s (19 years), one could make a case that we are only about halfway through this current bull cycle (9 years).
Do I think this is absolutely the case? Personally, I do not as there are issues regarding demographics, de-globalization, inflation/stagflation/deflation, boomers retiring en-masse, etc., that will likely put further pressure on asset markets throughout this decade.
What do you think about this historical analysis?
CHART NOTE: Recessions = Shaded Red Areas
Chart #1 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊
*Inflation Adjusted Returns Chart Data via Advisor Perspectives*
www.advisorperspecti...ull-and-bear-markets
Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low:
Chart #2 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊
*Inflation Adjusted Secular Highs & Lows via Advisor Perspectives*
www.advisorperspecti...ull-and-bear-markets
Chart #3 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊
*Inflation Adjusted Regression to Trend via Advisor Perspectives*
www.advisorperspecti...ull-and-bear-markets
Chart #4 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊
*Inflation Adjusted Regression Channel via Advisor Perspectives*
www.advisorperspecti...ull-and-bear-markets
Chart #5 (Monthly): *1920-1972* (Great Depression & Post-WWII) 📊
*Note that during the Great Depression/WWII, as Ray Dalio has pointed out in his recent book "The Changing World Order" this was a prolonged period of negative to very low returns.*
📖 www.economicprincipl...WorldOrderCharts.pdf
Chart #6 (Monthly): *1972-2022* (70’s Stagflation, 80’s "Greed is Good" markets & 90’s dot.com Boom, 08’ GFC, & 2010’s QE 1/2/3, 20’ Covid Crash, & 21-22’ Inflation/Interest Rate Shock Correction) 📊
*Note that we are still in a secular bull market uptrend, when looking at the monthly charts. Until this trend breaks down, there is market support for a continuation of this trend.*
Chart #6 (Monthly): *1871-2022* (MACD) 📊
First, for those who say “investors can't or shouldn’t time the markets", I very much disagree with this logic (or Wall Street marketing) as there are plenty of signals, cyclical trends, leading indicators, etc., that give investors clues as to what likely lies ahead — based on probabilities.
And while nobody can be 100% certain as to the exact pathway of markets, given the macro cross-currents that are in front of us — we can 100% say that we have been & still are in a secular bull market. Until this trend changes, the “crash” that many were calling for in 22’, if not expecting for 23’ could possibly take longer to play out than many realize when looking at previous bull vs. bear secular market cycles.
Second, looking at the attached chart(s), this is also why timing and duration matter.
If you are entering retirement toward the latter part of a secular bull market, it might be best to reduce risk & shift from capital appreciation to capital preservation. Examples of this include leading up The Great Depression, 1950’s post-WWII boom prior to the 1970’s Stagflation Era, & into the end of the Tech Boom of the .com era leading into 2001.
On the flip side, if you are in your saving years (20’s-30’s+), then it is during these secular bear markets that you really want to be accumulating & building your asset base for the next bull market phase that is likely ahead in the coming years as the trend higher always begins during the bear market bottoming process (see dotted black lines on charts).
Third, looking at the current cycle & zooming in on the charts from yearly (large picture) to monthly chart — we can see that we are still technically in a secular bull market. And considering the previous two major bull market cycles of the 1950/60’s (18 years) & 1980’s up until the early 2000’s (19 years), one could make a case that we are only about halfway through this current bull cycle (9 years).
Do I think this is absolutely the case? Personally, I do not as there are issues regarding demographics, de-globalization, inflation/stagflation/deflation, boomers retiring en-masse, etc., that will likely put further pressure on asset markets throughout this decade.
What do you think about this historical analysis?
- Are we going to break this secular bull market cycle & enter a secular new bear market?
- Or, are are just in a corrective phase within the broader bull market cycle?
CHART NOTE: Recessions = Shaded Red Areas
Chart #1 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊
*Inflation Adjusted Returns Chart Data via Advisor Perspectives*
www.advisorperspecti...ull-and-bear-markets
Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low:
- Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%.
- Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%.
- Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio.
Chart #2 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊
*Inflation Adjusted Secular Highs & Lows via Advisor Perspectives*
www.advisorperspecti...ull-and-bear-markets
Chart #3 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊
*Inflation Adjusted Regression to Trend via Advisor Perspectives*
www.advisorperspecti...ull-and-bear-markets
Chart #4 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊
*Inflation Adjusted Regression Channel via Advisor Perspectives*
www.advisorperspecti...ull-and-bear-markets
Chart #5 (Monthly): *1920-1972* (Great Depression & Post-WWII) 📊
*Note that during the Great Depression/WWII, as Ray Dalio has pointed out in his recent book "The Changing World Order" this was a prolonged period of negative to very low returns.*
📖 www.economicprincipl...WorldOrderCharts.pdf
Chart #6 (Monthly): *1972-2022* (70’s Stagflation, 80’s "Greed is Good" markets & 90’s dot.com Boom, 08’ GFC, & 2010’s QE 1/2/3, 20’ Covid Crash, & 21-22’ Inflation/Interest Rate Shock Correction) 📊
*Note that we are still in a secular bull market uptrend, when looking at the monthly charts. Until this trend breaks down, there is market support for a continuation of this trend.*
- Pre-Covid High = Red Dotted Line ($3,393.52)
- Post-Covid High = Green Dotted Line ($4,816.62)
Chart #6 (Monthly): *1871-2022* (MACD) 📊
Comment:
Chart #8 (Monthly): *1980-2022* ( MACD ) 📊
Comment:
Chart #9 (Weekly): *2000-2022* ( MACD ) 📊
Comment:
Chart #10 (Daily): *2019-2022* ( MACD ) 📊
To Wealth & Prosperity,
Kyle
Kyle
