SJ_CAP

The Market Is Crashing and We Are All Doomed - Or Are We?

Short
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
TLDR: A market crash of 50% is not as unlikely as you may think, probably probable actually. Buy gold , buy land, buy commodities . Gather your cash, so you can deploy it on cheap stonks after and become a gazillionaire.

I'm about to break down why the largest crash in history may happen very soon. A lot of very interesting events culminating right now, and if you plan on investing throughout your life, moments and times like this are important for your future self, as it wont be the last time a correction or crash happens. Paying attention now means more mula later.

First and foremost, its clear there's a correction happening. There's no argument there. I'm not typically a bear, nor am I typically a bull. I try my best to stay neutral and go with whatever flow the market takes me. BUT...

Many of the same aspects from previous crashes are showing here such as:

Frenzied investor spending - Multi Million Dollar NFTs, Exploding New "wacky" Cryptos (Doge, Shib etc), The takeoff of "meme" stocks

Extremely high growth in emerging markets - ( SPY grows 90% in 3 years, has one of its best performance years ever (2021), (look at AAPL , MSFT , FB charts) The same happened in the previous three crashes of the last century (1929 crash, previous year saw 80%+ in growth)

High deviation from the mean (price always reverts back to mean!!) Looking at the S&P , the past 3-4 years has seen quite the deviation compared to price average in the past 100 years.

Why might this one be the worst so far in history? Just as price goes exponentially higher as time goes on, so do the price dumps. Also, the FED has always been there in the past to buy assets and keep companies afloat. However, this time, inflation may keep that dragged down, limiting the FEDs buying power. Not to mention the economy is currently "fake" in a way, as the FED for the past 20 years has been bailing and supporting the economy after every (even small) correction.
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Also, the ongoing supply problem China is about to bring, with it shutting down factories and continuing lockdowns. The Ukraine debacle, Russia being one of the largest exporters of Oil , this could put a huge damper on the U.S (that doesn't even include Russia being mean to the U.S because of the U.S sanctions to be placed by these actions.) In super high speculation, if this begins to escalate, China would take the side of the Russia, and China is the largest exporter for U.S goods - period. This would not be like WW2. ( I don't just mean fighting, I also mean sanction wars - taxing etc)

We also have a super old president. This isn't a jab at Biden . He's the oldest in history, and assuming he has no health scares from now till election, I doubt he will run again. If he does, we have even more reason to be concerned about his health. God only knows what would happen if something happened to a U.S president in this hyper-informational world, and with events like this going on. If Biden doesn't re-run, we will be dealing with another election in the U.S. High disinformation and political polarization, all while this is going on and our historic enemies are doing no no's that NATO does not like.

Now, with all of this being said. I, am, not, a, bear. I love things going up. Just seeing things for what they are right now. Take the information above as you will, and form your own hypotheses. Hopefully all will be well in the short and long run, and we can all make some money from this - lets not forget history's richest men appeared in the most turbulent times.
Comment: Thanks to all who have took the time to read this and share their thoughts and opinions! The more shared, the merrier. Only time will tell how poorly this ages! Cheers
Comment: For those interested, I am posting an analysis on previous events that may shed some light on our current events and add some context. AKA, story time!!!
Comment: The analysis has been posted, and draws parallels on the 1989 crash of the Japanese Stock Market.
Comment: So far, the analysis has been quite spot on as the tension with Russia escalates and CPI data shows inflation rising at higher than expected levels. We shall see where the coming months take us.
Comment: We may be doomed
Comment: In all seriousness, recent moves were predictable and OK. We may find a bottom in the mid 300s or even around 300 itself. Either way, many securities are at a great discount right now. Take advantage like the post says! Gold may no longer be very viable, it has already had its run up - same with oil. Good luck everyone!

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