Relief Rally?

Hello Traders,

I will get straight to the point today. It looks like a bit of a reversal, or is it a bear market relief rally?

What I'm looking at:

If price moves above around 408.80-409.5 and keeps momentum, watch out for a gap up around 412.
This is likely a relief rally, and we are probably just reverting to back to the trend because we were QUITE a bit oversold, but we are seeing a low volume move upward. Like I said before to those who follow me here and elsewhere, the downtrend is weakening, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. This isn't like after COVID hit or March '09 (the month the Bull market was reborn), we LIKELY won't have a recovery like that without a catalyst (i.e. Ukraine war end, steep inflation drop, steep oil demand decline/supply increase -aka priced too high/Saudi production increase).

Technically speaking, we're hitting a small supply zone around 406 it might push back down a little then move upward to keep the trend pattern going.
Around 410.90 another Supply zone on the chart.
We don't hit the big ones until 417+ but I don't think it's likely we'll make it up that far.
I'm getting a little ahead in this prediction, but this is for preparation for my followers or anyone who needs a little guidance.

Cheers,
Mike

(UPRIGHT Trading)

Comment:

I added via edit that there's also a retest of the 200ma on the 1hr about to hit, but looks like it didn't save.