Novi_Fibonacci

Last Leg To The Finish Line - UCHF

Long
FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
Here I have USD/CHF on the Daily Chart!

Now we've been following USD/CHF since it created its NEW LOW back in Dec. '23.
This LOW I believe sparked the beginning of an Elliot Wave and currently we are looking at what seems to be a possible LAST LEG of this Impulse Move!

Price has currently created a HIGHER HIGH @ .90721, so we will be looking for Price to either:
1) Finish its BULLISH run to the Fib-Ext Ranged Target @ ( .91572 - .93426 )
-OR-
2) Look to make another Retracement to the ( .88726 - .88418 ) B/C Zone for another Potential Entry to surf the Wave the rest of the Way!

*RSI is showing we are currently Over-Bought, so this leads me to believe we could see price descend to our Zone.

Fundamentally-

-The BIG contributor to this scenario is with the SNB being the FIRST this year to cut their Interest Rates making the CHF look less attractive to investors
&
The FED holding rates gives the USD a Leg UP!

*Forecasters for Next Weeks News (Apr. 1 - Apr. 5) are leaning towards Bullish Outcomes so that could help feed the Bullish Mindset of traders for USD to start the new month off but ANYTHING can happen so BE MINDFUL OF NEWS!!
Comment:
This week is going to be BIG for news on USD!!

Manufacturing ISM (MON)
JOLTS Job Openings (TUE)
ADP Non-Farm Employment, Powell Speaks & Services ISM (WED)
^
*The US is a more SERVICES than MANUFACTURING oriented country so I think this read will weigh heavier on the DXY this week.*

Unemployment Claims (THUR)
Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment & Unemployment Rate (FRI)

----

CHF has CPI (THUR)
Comment:
Both ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices read HOTTER than expected showing EXPANSION for USD in Manufacturing giving DXY some nice Bullish Momentum ... BUT WILL RESISTANCE HOLD?!?!
Comment:
JOLTS Job Openings came in right at 8.76M as forecasted..
BUT
If you didn't catch it, last months results were REVISED DOWN from 8.86M!!

Bringing me to believe we could see more resistance step in from this zone to possibly push price DOWN!!
Comment:
The word from FOMC Mester today is Rate Cuts are on the way, but it would seem NOT FOR MAY with what is reading to be a 97% probability of keeping rates the same
..
Could this be what keeps the DXY alive long term??
With big news the rest of the week, TIME WILL TELL!!
Comment:
Scaling down to the 1 Hr Chart, Technical Analysis shows Price outlining what looks to be a Pennant Pattern!
*Lower Highs into Higher Lows - Consolidating into a Pinch Point where Price will either Break Bullish OR Bearish.

The Break is typically heavily influenced by the Trend that was in place prior to the pattern forming
BUT
With price being unable to break any higher in this RESISTANCE ZONE, Lets see where price decides to go!!
Comment:
As I said earlier this week, SERVICES news will hit heavier than MANUFACTURING and it came in EXTREMELY cooler than expected at 51.4 rather than 52.8!
This big hit resulted in the massive drop in the DXY and here on USDCHF!!
-
IS THIS OUR NEW HIGH!?!?
Comment:
IT IS!!!

Today gave us the NEXT HIGHER HIGH @ .90953 in the Resistance Zone we were looking for!

NOW, with the very convincing drop to the downside, I believe we are starting our journey to the Bigger Picture B/C Zone for our Initial Buy Entry Idea!
*Our Buy Entry Zone has changed due to the New High that was created*

BUT FIRST!!

With this NEW HIGH @ .90953 followed by what seems to be a NEW LOW @ .9022, I'm looking for Price to Retrace to the ( .9046 - .9058 ) Range for a possible SELL ENTRY!

*CHF has CPI coming out in a Hour! Forecasted to be LOWER @ .3% compared to .6% Last Month. Could this make our move??
Comment:
CPI CAME OUT EXTREMELY COLD!! 0% rather than .3% forecasted!

I believe this may give the USD more power than expected for the previous Sell plan to stay in place!

We may even see price start to work its way back up to our current HIGH!!
Trade active:
I decided to take a Buy Entry @ .9056 after the bad news on CPI for CHF after price retraced it's bullish move up!!

SL @ .9037

May be a risky move before a big hitting news day ..
BUT
Fundamentally I like the move!
Comment:
*Retraced to the 61.8% level of the bullish move up I mean
Trade closed manually:
Closed trade on failure to break higher!
Comment:
After further analysis, the Bullish rise this morning after CHF CPI news pulled back to the 38.2% level of our Higher High!

Unemployment also came in HOTTER than expected @ 8k OVER forecast!

With our Higher High staying intact, our correction to the B/C Buy Zone is more likely!

Just looking for a LOWER LOW!!
Comment:
LOWER LOW CONFIRMED @ .9002!!

With our current LOWER HIGH @ .9075,
I'm looking for price to retrace to the ( .9026 - .9037 ) Range for a potential
SELL ENTRY!
Trade active:
Price corrected to .9043!!
Sell Entry @ .9040
SL @ .9057
Trade closed: stop reached:
Non-Farm Employment and Unemployment rate both coming in HOTTER than expected giving the USD quite the boost!
Unfortunately that means my Stop was hit!
Let's look for the next opportunity!
Comment:
To start the week off, my weekend analysis of USDCHF.

-Scaling down to the 4 Hr Chart, you can see that our 38.2% retracements to the High @ .90953 and price ending at a clear Support Level @ .9008 has formed quite a convincing HEAD & SHOULDERS PATTERN!! (Strong Reversal Pattern)

This tells me that we are definitely looking at a pathway DOWN to our B/C Zone @ ( .88872 - .88551 ) for a BUY ENTRY up to our RANGE TARGET @ ( .91913 - .93426 ) in the NEAR FUTURE

BUT BEFORE THAT HAPPENS!!

We NEED price to VALIDATE this HEAD & SHOULDERS pattern by BREAKING & CLOSING below the Support or "Neckline" @ .9008
*Once it does I will be looking for a SELL opportunity to take down to our BUY zone

**If Price BREAKS & CLOSES above the Resistance or "Shoulders" @ .9070, pattern is INVALIDATED!!
Trade active:
SELL Entry @ .9040!
SL @ .9060

-Price has retraced to our Entry Zone based off of current LOW
-DXY has already given back the gains it made since markets opened today!
Comment:
Decided to move SL to .9080 (above previous high) to allow breathing room for price on speculation that this is a FAKE OUT!!
Trade closed manually:
www.tradingview.com/...-far-from-1990-lows/

If you read this article, you will come across a BIG subtle hint on the future of Rate Cuts for USD meaning it will begin to look MORE favorable for investing which is why I am closing my Sell Trade
Trade active:
LESSON # 1500 - Trust your instincts and calculations!

The 38.2% Retracement to our current High @ .90953 held true keeping our High intact!

NOW, we can confidently say we are looking to sell this pair to our intended BUY ZONE!

Sell Entry @ .9037
SL @ .9060
Trade closed: stop reached:
CPI came out HOT for USD sending markets up creating new highs! Could be seeing the last run up to our Range Target!
Comment:
Price has slowed down before approaching our Range Target!!

-If Price is unable to finish the rest of the way, we could potentially look for another BUY Entry!
Trade active:
In prices inability to CLOSE above the .9140 zone and the appearance of a divergence forming, I decided to take a SELL!
Sell Entry @ .9135
SL @ .9150
TP @ .9050

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