Excuse the long post, it's Saturday, the market closed and too much coffee this morning :)
I just wanted to share my analysis and why I believe Crude Oil can reach the $78 level; this is an update to a previous theory
There are notes in the chart with reference to the daily MA20, the similarities between the drops from 7290 and 7520 and the daily candle pattern and below smaller timeframe wave analysis.
Through 18th and 19th June (highlighted in the box in the below chart) there was a 5 wave impulse move upwards followed by a correction (WXYXZ) to the 0.618 level >
If you compare this movement to 2nd and 3rd August the same wave pattern is there >
5 waves up followed by a complex WXYXZ to the 0.618 level; I theorized at the time that it was just a WXY >
but it turned out to be much more complex even though the same expected level was met at 0.618.
After 18th June first impulse up the correction appears to have been an expanded flat with C wave terminating at the 1.272 extension >
Wave 3 then went on to the 3.618 extension moving up $9 from wave 2 termination point >
I think its very hard to predict such a correction pattern but if early next week plays out in a similar way to the days following 18th and 19th of June we may have completed wave A on Friday and we're now in subwaves of B, possibly in WXY >
It could mean a double bottom before going up for the big wave 3 >
Smaller timeframe idea here >
I just wanted to share my analysis and why I believe Crude Oil can reach the $78 level; this is an update to a previous theory
There are notes in the chart with reference to the daily MA20, the similarities between the drops from 7290 and 7520 and the daily candle pattern and below smaller timeframe wave analysis.
Through 18th and 19th June (highlighted in the box in the below chart) there was a 5 wave impulse move upwards followed by a correction (WXYXZ) to the 0.618 level >
After 18th June first impulse up the correction appears to have been an expanded flat with C wave terminating at the 1.272 extension >
I think its very hard to predict such a correction pattern but if early next week plays out in a similar way to the days following 18th and 19th of June we may have completed wave A on Friday and we're now in subwaves of B, possibly in WXY >
Smaller timeframe idea here >
Comment:
Just noticed that in the chart I mention about the candle coming close to prior days closing, that should be prior days open.
Comment:
Another possible repeating candle from the 18, 19, 20 June >
Has to close like this, but may mean (if a pattern like this can be relied upon) the tomorrow drops a fair bit and Wednesday we break the 20MA on daily with a big green candle
Comment:
6690 broken, this bullish count invalid now.