PATH TO 2135 #1 NFP & MONDAY
SUMMARY - So blue route is most likely route and all its variations. Gray route is the mirror image. Why have it? Because it has proven useful that I make the "opposite of the favorite route. It should either one or the other OR BOTH AT DIFFERENT TIMES.
DETAILS - This covers next 48 hours of price action.
DETAILS - This covers next 48 hours of price action.
Comment:
Comment:
g) so trend maps just say more of the same with wider range for 36 hours
h) then it will calm down Monday and will start the zig zag AGAIN FOR THE FOLLOWING 3 DAYS and calm down next Friday
h) then it will calm down Monday and will start the zig zag AGAIN FOR THE FOLLOWING 3 DAYS and calm down next Friday
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6:56 PM just one top now, but need to go down a bit faster
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9:31 PM, SIMPLIFIED:
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9:57 PM Trend change warning. Looks like blue route about to die.
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11:00 PM ET, I am cleaning up for bed so here's what I think:
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-02/02, 12:00 AM FINALLY:
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1:32 AM ET... I want to say this before I sleep:
1) I have bear glasses on still
2) there's no way the "outlier" is only 60 pts higher (that's 3%), that's CRAZY TALK
3) so that means that I am under the influence of a "bear mindset" even when ....
4) I know (as much as it is possible for me to know) that a breakout is only days away
5) so let's clear somethings up...
6) 2065 level holding until 02/11, I am not sure about this
a) I think so, bc the extrapolations I ran most of them in previous weeks
b) that after faillures of so many "break out setups" blah blah...
c) so if it were to break ... then 2085 would hold until 02/11 we are talking 20 pts
d) that's 6 trading days, less than 4 pts day
e) I am too tired right now to number crunch regressions to get an exact nunmber
f) but:
1) I have bear glasses on still
2) there's no way the "outlier" is only 60 pts higher (that's 3%), that's CRAZY TALK
3) so that means that I am under the influence of a "bear mindset" even when ....
4) I know (as much as it is possible for me to know) that a breakout is only days away
5) so let's clear somethings up...
6) 2065 level holding until 02/11, I am not sure about this
a) I think so, bc the extrapolations I ran most of them in previous weeks
b) that after faillures of so many "break out setups" blah blah...
c) so if it were to break ... then 2085 would hold until 02/11 we are talking 20 pts
d) that's 6 trading days, less than 4 pts day
e) I am too tired right now to number crunch regressions to get an exact nunmber
f) but:
Comment:
g) in chart above, I added yellow route to Sunday 02/11
h) I KNOW I AM TOO BEARISH RIGHT NOW, OK?
i) it's the same mindset when I wrote "Rumors of a Pivot" Part 3-6
j) so that reflects in my extrapolations
k) if my head was clear, I would say gray is default favorite
l) in the long term, we are splitting hairs between 65 and 85
7) but that matters in the long run bc that means February high should NOT BE 2135
8) this is obvious alrready, I just am too bearish to point it out
h) I KNOW I AM TOO BEARISH RIGHT NOW, OK?
i) it's the same mindset when I wrote "Rumors of a Pivot" Part 3-6
j) so that reflects in my extrapolations
k) if my head was clear, I would say gray is default favorite
l) in the long term, we are splitting hairs between 65 and 85
7) but that matters in the long run bc that means February high should NOT BE 2135
8) this is obvious alrready, I just am too bearish to point it out
Comment:
9) last part we need to be clear on:
Comment:
a) the 'outlier" for bull rally in this scenario for 02/23 is 2300
b) so 2180 should be the average outlook now, NOT 2120-2135, that's sillly
b) so 2180 should be the average outlook now, NOT 2120-2135, that's sillly
Comment:
02/02, 2:15 AM ET, SO THAT'S BASE CASE OK?
a) whatever happens tomorrow (barring collapse and close under 2025)
b) base case under all scenarios average should be 2180
c) deadline is Sunday night of 02/25
a) whatever happens tomorrow (barring collapse and close under 2025)
b) base case under all scenarios average should be 2180
c) deadline is Sunday night of 02/25
Comment:
d) I mentioned all this bc the only thing that prevented me from saying it
e) is the disappointment of the last 8 weeks,
f) we already cleared all the hurdles with the exception of closing tomorrow under 2025
e) is the disappointment of the last 8 weeks,
f) we already cleared all the hurdles with the exception of closing tomorrow under 2025
Comment:
8:01 AM ET, RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE but looks like a bear in disguise
a) chart at top showed price went RIGHT IN BETWEEN both routes since yesterday
b) so trend maps favor blue route today
c) that means floor is 2028 if bears pushes hard
d if this is the case, then we need bulls to close 45+ to NOT CHANGE 2180 target for 02/23
a) chart at top showed price went RIGHT IN BETWEEN both routes since yesterday
b) so trend maps favor blue route today
c) that means floor is 2028 if bears pushes hard
d if this is the case, then we need bulls to close 45+ to NOT CHANGE 2180 target for 02/23
Comment:
8:39 AM ET, 2036.xx and bears are rolling...
a) trend maps say 28 will not hold
b) at first...
c) it's ok if it moves to 24, 22...
d) AS LONG AS WE CLOSE STRONG
a) trend maps say 28 will not hold
b) at first...
c) it's ok if it moves to 24, 22...
d) AS LONG AS WE CLOSE STRONG
Comment:
8:57 AM, 2029.XX bears still digging
a) I swear if break under 2024 HARD.... just forget all the bullish stuff I said last night
b) forget FOR A LOOOONG TIME
c) and I promise I'll never try intermediate forecasts again, stupid AF!
d) and stick to 24 hour binary, it works and easy to manage
a) I swear if break under 2024 HARD.... just forget all the bullish stuff I said last night
b) forget FOR A LOOOONG TIME
c) and I promise I'll never try intermediate forecasts again, stupid AF!
d) and stick to 24 hour binary, it works and easy to manage
Comment:
9:54 AM ET 2033.XX FRIDAY EARLY WRAP UP
a) as stated by an infamous philosopher days ago (but feels like ages ago)...
b) gold sucks major league, ok?
c) for readers not used to American English, that means A LOT OF SUCKING... A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUCKING
d) with that said here is what we need and corresponding expectations:
a) as stated by an infamous philosopher days ago (but feels like ages ago)...
b) gold sucks major league, ok?
c) for readers not used to American English, that means A LOT OF SUCKING... A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUCKING
d) with that said here is what we need and corresponding expectations:
Comment:
e) for chart above:
f) if we move under 27, NO MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES IS ALLOWED
g) staying under 2027 for more than 3 or 4 minutes IS NOT OK!
h) and ONLY ONE TIME!!!
i) do it twice and odds favor moving UNDER 2024 AND A CLOSE UNDER 2008
j) that would permanently kill bull thesis for the forseeable future
k) again, if jobs are so good, WHY CUT? WHY?
l) so these type of bottoms range from 2-4 hours most of the time
m) for us it needs to stick to 3.5 hours from first significant bottom
n) meaning 9:00 AM was first tag of 2027, so by 12:30 PM ET price must...
o) BE FINISHED WITH THE BOTTOM AND OBIVIOUSLY HEADING UP
p) longer than that and patterns imply there will LOWER LOWS next week
q) what we want, to keep every thing picture perfect, is 2048 close
r) that would seal the door shut against any bear comebacks
s) and thats it for this post, will make new trend maps over the weekend
t) and have a good weekend!
f) if we move under 27, NO MORE THAN A FEW MINUTES IS ALLOWED
g) staying under 2027 for more than 3 or 4 minutes IS NOT OK!
h) and ONLY ONE TIME!!!
i) do it twice and odds favor moving UNDER 2024 AND A CLOSE UNDER 2008
j) that would permanently kill bull thesis for the forseeable future
k) again, if jobs are so good, WHY CUT? WHY?
l) so these type of bottoms range from 2-4 hours most of the time
m) for us it needs to stick to 3.5 hours from first significant bottom
n) meaning 9:00 AM was first tag of 2027, so by 12:30 PM ET price must...
o) BE FINISHED WITH THE BOTTOM AND OBIVIOUSLY HEADING UP
p) longer than that and patterns imply there will LOWER LOWS next week
q) what we want, to keep every thing picture perfect, is 2048 close
r) that would seal the door shut against any bear comebacks
s) and thats it for this post, will make new trend maps over the weekend
t) and have a good weekend!
Comment:
10:42 AM ET 2034.XX CAN WE HIT 2073 TODAY?
a) the very first comment at top I addded
b) I wrote that ceiling was 2073 and floor 2027
c) when I said that, I imagined that CEILING WOULD HIT FIRST...
d) bc short term trends from yesterday high showed odds of that hitting early
e) we close yesterday STRONG AF... so yes, THERE IS A CHANCE OF 2073
f) we also have 5.5 hours left including aftermarket
g) if gold wants to SIGNAL BREAKOUT COMING, hit 73 today, closing 57 or higher
h) this is not in short term trend maps, but intermediate to long term maps
i) just putting out JUST IN CASE...
a) the very first comment at top I addded
b) I wrote that ceiling was 2073 and floor 2027
c) when I said that, I imagined that CEILING WOULD HIT FIRST...
d) bc short term trends from yesterday high showed odds of that hitting early
e) we close yesterday STRONG AF... so yes, THERE IS A CHANCE OF 2073
f) we also have 5.5 hours left including aftermarket
g) if gold wants to SIGNAL BREAKOUT COMING, hit 73 today, closing 57 or higher
h) this is not in short term trend maps, but intermediate to long term maps
i) just putting out JUST IN CASE...
Comment:
11:48 AM... LOOKS LIKE 27 HELD and low is in
a) last question is where is the close
b) we need 48 "to get ready for 2180" on 02/23
c) if we don't get that ....sigh, we going to have to do one more round of this:
a) last question is where is the close
b) we need 48 "to get ready for 2180" on 02/23
c) if we don't get that ....sigh, we going to have to do one more round of this:
Comment:
d) this zig zag type price action would go on for longer
e) to be clear, if we get 48, we only have to deal with zig zag 4 more days, maybe 5
f) but we don't we can easily kill 2 -3 weeks with another round of zig zag up
g) it seems a lot but we dont get that far...
h) ex: 2036 as I type, we are only up 20 pts since last major low
i) so that would mean we go another 2 or even 3 weeks .. just to get back to 2055 or 2060
j) and that settles it for today
e) to be clear, if we get 48, we only have to deal with zig zag 4 more days, maybe 5
f) but we don't we can easily kill 2 -3 weeks with another round of zig zag up
g) it seems a lot but we dont get that far...
h) ex: 2036 as I type, we are only up 20 pts since last major low
i) so that would mean we go another 2 or even 3 weeks .. just to get back to 2055 or 2060
j) and that settles it for today
Comment:
1:16 PM ET, 4 hours plus and still stuck at 2035...
a) after markets run until 5 PM
b) if it does not move up more, then one day at a time
c) that's what we should do anyway
a) after markets run until 5 PM
b) if it does not move up more, then one day at a time
c) that's what we should do anyway
Comment:
02/03 ,10/27 AM ET, 2039 close. Not "strong AF" as we wanted. But not terrible.
a) If you replay chart at top, it's doing blue not gray.
b) So THU PM into FRI AM, I already stated all my bullish views of what is coming.
c) And that 2120-2135 was a "lock" for 02/23, but "base case is "2180".
d) I also posted this chart:
a) If you replay chart at top, it's doing blue not gray.
b) So THU PM into FRI AM, I already stated all my bullish views of what is coming.
c) And that 2120-2135 was a "lock" for 02/23, but "base case is "2180".
d) I also posted this chart:
Comment:
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e) in chart above, I added yellow route in that chart for " higher outcome"
f) also said averaging expectations for this chart should be gray route
g) BUT 20 MINUTES AHEAD OF NFP, I STATE BLUE ROUTE WAS FAVORITE
h) that seemed full of contradictions
1) I added yellow route
2) gray route was average
3) but in the AM said it was "a bear in disuise" that we are going to 2028 and it would not hold ad first...
i) BUT IT DID!
j) now what?
f) also said averaging expectations for this chart should be gray route
g) BUT 20 MINUTES AHEAD OF NFP, I STATE BLUE ROUTE WAS FAVORITE
h) that seemed full of contradictions
1) I added yellow route
2) gray route was average
3) but in the AM said it was "a bear in disuise" that we are going to 2028 and it would not hold ad first...
i) BUT IT DID!
j) now what?
Comment:
10:40 AM ET, It has been well said many times, that "variety is the spice of life".
a) I've have realized why my "intermediate forecasts" do not work ....
b) anywhere near as well as "daily binaries"
c) "variety" in this sense means "range of outcomes
d) that is to say I do not consider a WIDE ENOUGH RANGE for intermediate outcomes
e) while there is a "way to solve that problem"
f) the way forward is obvious: stick to daily binaries
g) so before I post my chart for Monday/Tuesday
h) consider:
a) I've have realized why my "intermediate forecasts" do not work ....
b) anywhere near as well as "daily binaries"
c) "variety" in this sense means "range of outcomes
d) that is to say I do not consider a WIDE ENOUGH RANGE for intermediate outcomes
e) while there is a "way to solve that problem"
f) the way forward is obvious: stick to daily binaries
g) so before I post my chart for Monday/Tuesday
h) consider:
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a) in chart above, Friday's "hold of 2027" and closing at 2039 ...
b) strongly implies that we "should not" get a handle's handle, meaning:
b) strongly implies that we "should not" get a handle's handle, meaning:
Comment:
c) in chart above yellow is favorite and blue is distant second (as of right now)
d and obviously bear collapse is a bridge far away (as of right now)
d and obviously bear collapse is a bridge far away (as of right now)
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THIS POST IS FINISHED, HERE IS MON AND TUES:
a) price has been very zig-zag ok?
b) why?
c) because we are at an intersection where short to medium term trends are pushing up hard
d) while intermediate and long term still selling hard
e) so at this cross section you get ZIG ZAG to the extreme
f) I mean look: