PATH TO 2135 #2, 2077 BY TUESDAY MORNNING
INTRODUCTION - This is the 02/03/24, 15-min bar, ultra-detailed daily binary, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST (changes as often as I can update) for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. In my humble opinion, blue route should be the favorite from now to noon on Tuesday.
DETAILS - Link to #1 is in links section below. In that post, I stated my expectations for 2180 by 02/23. 2039 aftermarket close for Friday was not best possible close. Hence, while I stand by 2180 target, it is best to take price action one day at at time. Failure to close 2048 on Friday means:
1) first move should be retest of 2028-2030 area
2) orange hi-lights is what will happen if bulls cannot defend this channel
3) based on all trends combined, bulls are expected to defend this level
4) push to 2049 stall and eventually make 2055 by Monday NY open
5) NY session should see bears restest 2039 again
6) if bulls are 100% legit, they close NY near/at day's high around 2055
7) and push to 2073, 77, maybe even 80+ by Tuesday NY open
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
DETAILS - Link to #1 is in links section below. In that post, I stated my expectations for 2180 by 02/23. 2039 aftermarket close for Friday was not best possible close. Hence, while I stand by 2180 target, it is best to take price action one day at at time. Failure to close 2048 on Friday means:
1) first move should be retest of 2028-2030 area
2) orange hi-lights is what will happen if bulls cannot defend this channel
3) based on all trends combined, bulls are expected to defend this level
4) push to 2049 stall and eventually make 2055 by Monday NY open
5) NY session should see bears restest 2039 again
6) if bulls are 100% legit, they close NY near/at day's high around 2055
7) and push to 2073, 77, maybe even 80+ by Tuesday NY open
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
Comment:
02/03 3:38 PM ET - So this is the same chart I posted before NFP:
Comment:
a) I added the yellow route, but said average expectations should be gray route
b) while Friday's close put price squarely in blue route...
c) I expect this forecast (chart at top) to hit Tuesday 2077 high
d) this will put price RIGHT ON YELLOW ROUTE
e) this does not mean yellow route is favored the rest of the way
f) because we did not get there "directly"
g) this does mean 02/11-02/25 deserve even more attention
h) but let's not jinx this setup so we will take it one day at at a time
b) while Friday's close put price squarely in blue route...
c) I expect this forecast (chart at top) to hit Tuesday 2077 high
d) this will put price RIGHT ON YELLOW ROUTE
e) this does not mean yellow route is favored the rest of the way
f) because we did not get there "directly"
g) this does mean 02/11-02/25 deserve even more attention
h) but let's not jinx this setup so we will take it one day at at a time
Comment:
Saturday, 5:15 PM ... I'm not sure the blue arrow area will hold.
a) in chart at top there's a blue arrow for Sunday evening
b) I want to say 2030, 2027 will hold
c) now I don't think it will... sigh
d) this is bc of failure to hit 2048 Friday afternoon
e) so it looks like bears want 2025? let me see...
a) in chart at top there's a blue arrow for Sunday evening
b) I want to say 2030, 2027 will hold
c) now I don't think it will... sigh
d) this is bc of failure to hit 2048 Friday afternoon
e) so it looks like bears want 2025? let me see...
Comment:
f) yeah it looks like 2025 before rebounding
g) it's just annoying bc odds of orange route at top will rise considerably
h) betwen 7 and 9 PM ET Sunday night is where we need to watch
i) ultimately odds change as we go so... annoying AF I now
j) whatever the case, we will cross that bridge Sunday night
g) it's just annoying bc odds of orange route at top will rise considerably
h) betwen 7 and 9 PM ET Sunday night is where we need to watch
i) ultimately odds change as we go so... annoying AF I now
j) whatever the case, we will cross that bridge Sunday night
Comment:
02/03, 6:37 PM, I have something I really want to share but lets not jinx it this time.
a) we need to survive Sunday night
b) and finish chart at top AS CLOSE TO hi-light as possible
c) then just a few more days to trigger this signal
d) this one's worth waiting for, for sure
a) we need to survive Sunday night
b) and finish chart at top AS CLOSE TO hi-light as possible
c) then just a few more days to trigger this signal
d) this one's worth waiting for, for sure
Comment:
02/03 7:36 PM... more bad news.. sigh..
a) I don't know if 025 will hold
b) if it doesn't, bears will push for 2012
c) and the only way to get back up in time
d) is stick save ex:
1) 2025 by 8:30
2) 2012 by 8:45
3) 2030 by 9:00
e) again, I don't know if 2025 will hold
f) I have reason to believe it won't hold
a) I don't know if 025 will hold
b) if it doesn't, bears will push for 2012
c) and the only way to get back up in time
d) is stick save ex:
1) 2025 by 8:30
2) 2012 by 8:45
3) 2030 by 9:00
e) again, I don't know if 2025 will hold
f) I have reason to believe it won't hold
Comment:
10:12 PM I'll have to be live all of Sunday night to call it:
1) the first move down is between 8-9 PM
2) I think 2025 will hold
3) but there is a FLASH CRASH WINDOW between 10 and midnight
4) this is not likely to happen
5) if it happens, the setup calls for an INSTANT STICK SAVE
6) the problem is dead floor for stick save is 2008
7) obviously the strategy would be to bid 2010 to 2015 and see if you can get filled
8) this is the WASHOUT scenario for a massive run
9) we will take it one day at a time
1) the first move down is between 8-9 PM
2) I think 2025 will hold
3) but there is a FLASH CRASH WINDOW between 10 and midnight
4) this is not likely to happen
5) if it happens, the setup calls for an INSTANT STICK SAVE
6) the problem is dead floor for stick save is 2008
7) obviously the strategy would be to bid 2010 to 2015 and see if you can get filled
8) this is the WASHOUT scenario for a massive run
9) we will take it one day at a time
Comment:
10) CORRECTION, floor is 2018
11) 2008 very unlikely to hit
11) 2008 very unlikely to hit
Comment:
02/04 1:04 AM ET: SO HERE IS HOW THAT SHOULD LOOK
a) for chart above:
b) blue route is same as chart as top, but cleaned up
c) gray route is with flash crash to 2018
d) by 2-3 AM Monday, it should be obvious we have a bottom
b) blue route is same as chart as top, but cleaned up
c) gray route is with flash crash to 2018
d) by 2-3 AM Monday, it should be obvious we have a bottom
Comment:
02/04 11:15 AM, EDITTED AGAIN FOR ACCURACY:
1) in chart above: light gray, light blue, & light oranges from previous chart
2) dark blue is the most accurate in terms of editing
3) I will use this chart to add notes later
2) dark blue is the most accurate in terms of editing
3) I will use this chart to add notes later
Comment:
4) why so much attention to these 3 days (Sun-Mon-Tues)?'
5) these 3 days determine the curve for price through Sunday 02/25 (so excactly 3 weeks)
6) last post, I said average of all trend maps calls 2120-2135 "a lock" for 02/23
7) and that the "average extrapolation" should be 2180
8) with Friday's close that number has fallen to 2170
9) but if price follows through with this map through Tuesday NY close
10) that will bump the dead floor to 2045-ish for Wednesday
11) rising to 2060 for Friday 02/09
12) that means 2120-2135 is likely for Tuesday 02/13
13) 10 days ahead of original schedule
14) so if we make 2077 on Tuesday, and now it looks like Tuesday PM
15) that would imply 2120-2135 is a lock for 02/14
16) that means 10 DAYS EARLY ON AN EXPLOSIVE CURVE
5) these 3 days determine the curve for price through Sunday 02/25 (so excactly 3 weeks)
6) last post, I said average of all trend maps calls 2120-2135 "a lock" for 02/23
7) and that the "average extrapolation" should be 2180
8) with Friday's close that number has fallen to 2170
9) but if price follows through with this map through Tuesday NY close
10) that will bump the dead floor to 2045-ish for Wednesday
11) rising to 2060 for Friday 02/09
12) that means 2120-2135 is likely for Tuesday 02/13
13) 10 days ahead of original schedule
14) so if we make 2077 on Tuesday, and now it looks like Tuesday PM
15) that would imply 2120-2135 is a lock for 02/14
16) that means 10 DAYS EARLY ON AN EXPLOSIVE CURVE
Comment:
17) so how high we get by Sunday 02/25
18) will be determined by Tuesday's high
19) which in turn is determined by Sunday night's (tonight's) price action
20) by 2-3 AM Monday, we should know if 'low is in"
18) will be determined by Tuesday's high
19) which in turn is determined by Sunday night's (tonight's) price action
20) by 2-3 AM Monday, we should know if 'low is in"
Comment:
02/04 12:11 PM ET, FOR TONIGHT, IT'S NOT OVER UNTIL IT'S OVER!
a) that second leg down is unlikely (for now)
b) but this part CHANGES ALL THE TIME
c) 2018 is the stick save demand
d) if price moves under 18, bears can reopen window to kill bull thesis
a) that second leg down is unlikely (for now)
b) but this part CHANGES ALL THE TIME
c) 2018 is the stick save demand
d) if price moves under 18, bears can reopen window to kill bull thesis
Comment:
6:08 PM TAGGED 2041... if price holds 2040 for 90 minutes...
a) we can eliminate scenarios under 2027
b) the critical part is literally right now
c) bc bears window expire about 11-midnight
d) it's basically now or never again for them
a) we can eliminate scenarios under 2027
b) the critical part is literally right now
c) bc bears window expire about 11-midnight
d) it's basically now or never again for them
Comment:
6:31 PM CRITICAL 30 MIN COMING UP
a) bulls have a shot for 2050
b) this would shut the door on any bear comeback
c) but they have to do it soon while they momentum
a) bulls have a shot for 2050
b) this would shut the door on any bear comeback
c) but they have to do it soon while they momentum
Comment:
7:13 so here we are:
Comment:
a) bulls didn't take the opportunity to push for 2050
b) so now we have to deal with this weak zone in the that box
c) the good news is, we can probably eliminate everything under 2025
d) that is to say, I can't see this last retest getting worse than 2025
e) it's 7:16 PM as I type, that leaves about 4 hours of remaining weakness
f) at the most
b) so now we have to deal with this weak zone in the that box
c) the good news is, we can probably eliminate everything under 2025
d) that is to say, I can't see this last retest getting worse than 2025
e) it's 7:16 PM as I type, that leaves about 4 hours of remaining weakness
f) at the most
Comment:
8:24 PM 2036.20, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT LOW IS IN
a) first a small chance
b) originally 8:30 was the first low around 28-30
c) it is almost 8:30 and we never got under 33
d) so now comes zig zag to down to last weak window
e) this should come 10:30-11:00
f) so there is some chance we are not going going under 30 based on the current trend map
a) first a small chance
b) originally 8:30 was the first low around 28-30
c) it is almost 8:30 and we never got under 33
d) so now comes zig zag to down to last weak window
e) this should come 10:30-11:00
f) so there is some chance we are not going going under 30 based on the current trend map
Comment:
8:41 PM ET 2037.55 are we done?
a) if you replay chart at top...
b) my original route for this move has us moving up right here
c) there is a small chance of this happening now
d) I would not say that it's favored to go now though
a) if you replay chart at top...
b) my original route for this move has us moving up right here
c) there is a small chance of this happening now
d) I would not say that it's favored to go now though
Comment:
9:40 PM ET SHOULD BOTTOM WITHIN 100 MINUTES ... SO SO BY 11:20 PM ET
a) this is the last move down in my trend maps
b) I have eliminated significant "new low" scenarios under 2027
c) in my humble opinion, it should be 2030-31 right before 11 PM ET
a) this is the last move down in my trend maps
b) I have eliminated significant "new low" scenarios under 2027
c) in my humble opinion, it should be 2030-31 right before 11 PM ET
Comment:
9:48 I HAVE NOT ELIMINATED NEW LOW... MY BAD IT'S 2034.XX AS I TYPE
a) so next 60 minutes can get really bad
b) whichever the case, we should get a bottom here
c) it's just that the way micro trends are set, WE CAN STILL GET A MOVE TO 2024-25
a) so next 60 minutes can get really bad
b) whichever the case, we should get a bottom here
c) it's just that the way micro trends are set, WE CAN STILL GET A MOVE TO 2024-25
Comment:
10:13 2032.xx, ALMOST THERE BUT NOT YET
a) time wise, we are very close to the bottom
b) but the move is not over until it's over
a) time wise, we are very close to the bottom
b) but the move is not over until it's over
Comment:
10:34 STILL NOT YET:
Comment:
10:45 PM ET 2031.64 ODDS OF A BOTTOM BEGINNING TO CLIMB
a) can't say for sure
b) but odds are starting to move
a) can't say for sure
b) but odds are starting to move
Comment:
12:04 AM 2030.54 we don't have a bottom
a) we are still going down
b) where it stops I don't know
c) but targets are 28, 24 and 18
a) we are still going down
b) where it stops I don't know
c) but targets are 28, 24 and 18
Comment:
1:14 AM 2030.35, we need to bottom now and start moving up
a) otherwise , i have to scrap this forecast
b) it's beginning to shift outcomes for the rest of the week
c) it's taking too long to get back up.
d) that also means IT CAN'T GET BACK UP BC IT WILL LOSE THE WINDOW
a) otherwise , i have to scrap this forecast
b) it's beginning to shift outcomes for the rest of the week
c) it's taking too long to get back up.
d) that also means IT CAN'T GET BACK UP BC IT WILL LOSE THE WINDOW
Comment:
e) we have to be at 2048 at NY OPEN
f) this is not optional
g) miss this and IT'S A HUGE PROBLEM
f) this is not optional
g) miss this and IT'S A HUGE PROBLEM
Comment:
12:21 AM 2031.XX I have a signal.
a) but it has to move now
b) we need 2035 by 1:00 and 38 by 2:00 AM, to have a shot at 48 by 7:30
a) but it has to move now
b) we need 2035 by 1:00 and 38 by 2:00 AM, to have a shot at 48 by 7:30
Comment:
12:58 AM ET, I am long and going to bed.
a) it's 2029.xx as I type
b) I have signal for a move to 2045-48 and it lasts all the way until 9AM
c) which means it doesn't have to move now
d) it just has to move in that window
e) but wait so long to move will put us back in the same type of price action for the last two weeks
f) sideways and ridiculous amount of zig-zag
a) it's 2029.xx as I type
b) I have signal for a move to 2045-48 and it lasts all the way until 9AM
c) which means it doesn't have to move now
d) it just has to move in that window
e) but wait so long to move will put us back in the same type of price action for the last two weeks
f) sideways and ridiculous amount of zig-zag
Comment:
g) so that's a wrap for tonight
Comment:
3:02 alarm for 2025 hit...
a) kills the signal for the move to 45-48
b) and have no idea what next or when
c) so that kills 2077 for Tuesday
a) kills the signal for the move to 45-48
b) and have no idea what next or when
c) so that kills 2077 for Tuesday
Comment:
4:18 AM ET and this development basically kills the rest of this week
a) price is now trapped in triangle shape zig zag for rest of this week
b) nothing will be worth your time until next Sunday
a) price is now trapped in triangle shape zig zag for rest of this week
b) nothing will be worth your time until next Sunday
Comment:
4:55 AM ET, take a week off, I'll be back next Sunday:
Comment:
THIS POST HAS ENDED. Here is the remaining four days of this week's binary outcome:
