PATH TO 2135 #4, THINGS GETTING INTERESTING
INTRODUCTION - This is the 02/06/24, 15-min bar, ultra-detailed daily binary, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST (changes as often as I can update) for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. In previous post #3, bulls hit the box as required, now they have 3 routes to take and it's too early to say which one.
DETAILS - As stated in the last hour, LIGHT BLUE is base case. Sometime tonight, I will be able to say if the favorite route has shifted to DARK BLUE. Odds of shifting to DARK BLUE is more than 2/3, but until it does LIGHT BLUE is still base case. GOLD route is a last minute possibility.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
DETAILS - As stated in the last hour, LIGHT BLUE is base case. Sometime tonight, I will be able to say if the favorite route has shifted to DARK BLUE. Odds of shifting to DARK BLUE is more than 2/3, but until it does LIGHT BLUE is still base case. GOLD route is a last minute possibility.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
Comment:
Comment:
12:40 PM ET - Response to guy that says huge drop incoming:
1) If my trend maps change to favor it, I will post that IMMEDIATELY.
2) Bears missed a HUGE OPPORTUNITY overnight to do real damage.
3) Weak volume and everything, but they dropped the ball and couldn't pull through. 4) So the odds of them changing things now has dropped hard overnight.
5) Current odds have bulls shutting the door on any bear comeback on Friday.
6) This date can move 2 days earlier or 1 day later.
7) So WED-THU-FRI-SUN, and clock is ticking.
8) Yesterday that date was Sunday, it has moved to Friday AM.
9) If bears don't do something here, bulls are pulling in that time closer and closer.
1) If my trend maps change to favor it, I will post that IMMEDIATELY.
2) Bears missed a HUGE OPPORTUNITY overnight to do real damage.
3) Weak volume and everything, but they dropped the ball and couldn't pull through. 4) So the odds of them changing things now has dropped hard overnight.
5) Current odds have bulls shutting the door on any bear comeback on Friday.
6) This date can move 2 days earlier or 1 day later.
7) So WED-THU-FRI-SUN, and clock is ticking.
8) Yesterday that date was Sunday, it has moved to Friday AM.
9) If bears don't do something here, bulls are pulling in that time closer and closer.
Comment:
10) I would not be surprised if bulls shut that door in 24 hours.
Comment:
1:15 PM 2036 double topped and heading to 2022 before midnight ET
a) this is average extrapolation for 12 hours
b) most of the selling should be after NY close
c) the curves at that time will tell us what kind of Wednesday we will have
a) this is average extrapolation for 12 hours
b) most of the selling should be after NY close
c) the curves at that time will tell us what kind of Wednesday we will have
Comment:
1:31 PM, Here like this, and see you tomorrow:
Comment:
2:05 PM, WE ARE COIN FLIPPING FOR PRE-SPIKE SCENARIOS:
Comment:
a) in chart above there's two lows to this next low
b) it's 10-11PM and tomorrow 7-8 PM
c) the gold route is the favorite for 2-min bars
d) but that can change any time
b) it's 10-11PM and tomorrow 7-8 PM
c) the gold route is the favorite for 2-min bars
d) but that can change any time
Comment:
2:51 PM to show all bases covered, here is the most bearish ratio-ed regression layers:
Comment:
a) in chart above, EVERYTHING ELSE HIGHER THAN 64X all aiming at the sky
b) so we have some disagreement and that's ok
c) but if you make 10 trend charts, this is only one that has bears "winning convincingly"
d) this one I am concerned about, but it had the best opportunity LAST NIGHT...
e) and IT DIDN'T TAKE IT because bears JUST DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH TO DO IT
f) in my humble opinion...
g) we have passed the most bearish point of concern
h) and while we should move to 2018-2024 two more times between now and 8 AM tomorrow
i) the door for bears' comeback is closing tighter and tighter EVERY HOUR
b) so we have some disagreement and that's ok
c) but if you make 10 trend charts, this is only one that has bears "winning convincingly"
d) this one I am concerned about, but it had the best opportunity LAST NIGHT...
e) and IT DIDN'T TAKE IT because bears JUST DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH TO DO IT
f) in my humble opinion...
g) we have passed the most bearish point of concern
h) and while we should move to 2018-2024 two more times between now and 8 AM tomorrow
i) the door for bears' comeback is closing tighter and tighter EVERY HOUR
Comment:
3:24 PM ET so here's how this move to 2060 (wed) and 2085 (thurs) gets called:
a) take that chart above, the most bearish of all 10
b) and figure out how that chart would turn bullishly
c) honestly, Monday WAS IMPOSSIBLE
d) why?
e) bc if you a forecast a move ALL THE TRENDS IN THAT SET HAS TO AGREE
f) if one set of colors in that chart says NO, then it's not happening
g) this is the set that keeps me up at night
h) but now even the MOST BEARISH SET, agrees we are going up
i) so get ready for 02/1-03/08 there's several scenarios I haven't even talked about
j) just so I don't jinx the move
a) take that chart above, the most bearish of all 10
b) and figure out how that chart would turn bullishly
c) honestly, Monday WAS IMPOSSIBLE
d) why?
e) bc if you a forecast a move ALL THE TRENDS IN THAT SET HAS TO AGREE
f) if one set of colors in that chart says NO, then it's not happening
g) this is the set that keeps me up at night
h) but now even the MOST BEARISH SET, agrees we are going up
i) so get ready for 02/1-03/08 there's several scenarios I haven't even talked about
j) just so I don't jinx the move
Comment:
k) 02/11-03/08 (typo)
Comment:
3:57 PM, NY close in 3 minutes, consider:
a) in chart above the hi-light is rally of March 2020 to August of 2020
b) just a raw comparison
b) just a raw comparison
Comment:
c) the current run has been weaker the entire way especially since we turned 2024
d) what the two rallies have in common is "rhythm" of overall trend
e) meaning if it matches high rhythm a FOURTH TIME, it should be Sunday 02/25
f) I don't expect it to match highs at 24xx (of course)
g) but I DO EXPECT IT TO DO BETTER THAN THE FOLLOWING LOW AT 2200
d) what the two rallies have in common is "rhythm" of overall trend
e) meaning if it matches high rhythm a FOURTH TIME, it should be Sunday 02/25
f) I don't expect it to match highs at 24xx (of course)
g) but I DO EXPECT IT TO DO BETTER THAN THE FOLLOWING LOW AT 2200
Comment:
h) 02/25 is also February full moon
i) I am told by people that follow cycles that this zone from 02/11 to 03/08 is important
j) my extrapolations show massive run to 02/25 and also massive crash into 03/13
i) I am told by people that follow cycles that this zone from 02/11 to 03/08 is important
j) my extrapolations show massive run to 02/25 and also massive crash into 03/13
Comment:
4:12 PM so that means this:
Comment:
a) it's 2035.xx as I type
b) in 8 days, we should be up more than 100 at 2137
b) in 8 days, we should be up more than 100 at 2137
Comment:
Comment:
02/06, 5/08 PM 2300 high now on the table..
a) but when though?
b) I know it should be SUNDAY 02/25 TO WED 02/28...
c) so let's call it 2300 ON TUESDAY 02/27
d) that's the call bottom tomorrow morning around 2020
e) top Tuesday 02/27 at 2300
f) MAYBE EARLIER AND MAYBE HIGHER
g) I really want to say 2360 on Sunday 02/25
h) but I don't have enough to say that, so again 2300 ON TUESDAY 02/27
a) but when though?
b) I know it should be SUNDAY 02/25 TO WED 02/28...
c) so let's call it 2300 ON TUESDAY 02/27
d) that's the call bottom tomorrow morning around 2020
e) top Tuesday 02/27 at 2300
f) MAYBE EARLIER AND MAYBE HIGHER
g) I really want to say 2360 on Sunday 02/25
h) but I don't have enough to say that, so again 2300 ON TUESDAY 02/27
Comment:
For Ordinary-Human's question what can push price from 2020 to 2360 (02/07-02/27)?
a) I don't know
b) war news maybe?, bc why else would miners still be so low?
c) all I know is this
1) 2085 will hit by Thursday end of NY session
2) we correct to about 2055-60 on Friday
3) THE MOST CRITICAL PART IS 2055 TO 2135
4) thats why I titled this series "path to 2135"
5) I have 2135 by Tuesday 02/13-Wenesday 02/14
6) it could push to Thursday 02/15...
7) but after 2135 (with or without another retrace to 2090) WE FLY ALL THE WAY UP
8) in my math it's gotta be 2360 but if Im wrong I'll settle for 2300
a) I don't know
b) war news maybe?, bc why else would miners still be so low?
c) all I know is this
1) 2085 will hit by Thursday end of NY session
2) we correct to about 2055-60 on Friday
3) THE MOST CRITICAL PART IS 2055 TO 2135
4) thats why I titled this series "path to 2135"
5) I have 2135 by Tuesday 02/13-Wenesday 02/14
6) it could push to Thursday 02/15...
7) but after 2135 (with or without another retrace to 2090) WE FLY ALL THE WAY UP
8) in my math it's gotta be 2360 but if Im wrong I'll settle for 2300
Comment:
5:45 PM, I'm racking my brain trying to date the 23xx high so:
a) let's get to 2180 by 02/25 first
b) that much I can date without suspicion
c) bc I cannot tell if this rally lasts until 03/08 or not
d) if it does, I can call 2360 by 03/08
e) but that's the part that's so hard
f) so let's get to 2180 and should we be way earlier than 02/25, we can plan much easier
a) let's get to 2180 by 02/25 first
b) that much I can date without suspicion
c) bc I cannot tell if this rally lasts until 03/08 or not
d) if it does, I can call 2360 by 03/08
e) but that's the part that's so hard
f) so let's get to 2180 and should we be way earlier than 02/25, we can plan much easier
Comment:
6:14 PM, this much sideways time has made DARK BLUE (chart at top), the favorite route from here.
a) so now questions are
b) is it going gold/yellow route?
c) and will it skip some retraces?
a) so now questions are
b) is it going gold/yellow route?
c) and will it skip some retraces?
Comment:
6:48 PM JUST A WARNING:
Comment:
a) the extrapolations have been getting slowly stronger all afternoon
b) I don't know how much "retrace" we will actually get if this keeps up
c) bc I can literally "SEE THE FLOOR MOVE UP"
b) I don't know how much "retrace" we will actually get if this keeps up
c) bc I can literally "SEE THE FLOOR MOVE UP"
Comment:
d) so 6 hours ago with was easy to see 2018 possible
e) now that looks IMPOSSIBLE
f) it's getting REALLY HARD to see number under 2027
g) WHY?
h) all the trends that were bearish ARE PUSHING STRAIGHT sideways
i) once those turn, the floor gets pushed up
j) the hard floor is 2026 now BUT THE SOFT FLOOR IS LIKE 2029
e) now that looks IMPOSSIBLE
f) it's getting REALLY HARD to see number under 2027
g) WHY?
h) all the trends that were bearish ARE PUSHING STRAIGHT sideways
i) once those turn, the floor gets pushed up
j) the hard floor is 2026 now BUT THE SOFT FLOOR IS LIKE 2029
Comment:
7:56 PM ET 34.XX
a) just realized the hi-lights at top are like 8 hours off
b) will republish tonight
a) just realized the hi-lights at top are like 8 hours off
b) will republish tonight
Comment:
THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS #4B UPDATE:
a) every few hours until tomorrow morning
b) bulls need gold route soooo bad right now
c) because while they have remained the favorite for the entire time..
d) the there are sets of intermediate curves STRONGLY DISAGREE with a bullish out come
e) and those curves REALLY NEED CORRECTION to the upside
f) bc while it's 2035.x as I type the intermediate curves say 1950 is just as close as 2085 if not closer
g) meaning intermediate odds of hitting 2085 and 1950 probably the same
h but tomorrow can CHANGE ALL OF THIS