GOLD 5-DAY EXTRAPOLATION #2
INTRODUCTION - This is the 01/26/24 unitary (not binary), 15-min bar, 5-day partially-detailed, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST (changes as often as I can update) for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. This is the signal I caught last night, adjusted for bar size, time frame, vol-limits, with consideration for PCE/CORE PCE release for 8:30 AM ET.
DETAILS - So I have just enough time to draft this route. This is not "ultra-detailed" but it should will serve us fine until I update in notes or re-post. This post will focus on Friday and Monday only. I should have an update Monday night. So the run RIGHT NOW should top round 7-8 AM. We should have one more minor check down. The expectation is to tag 2038 and retrace to 2025? or so BUT CLOSE AROUND 2040. We should get to 2065 before NY opens Monday.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
DETAILS - So I have just enough time to draft this route. This is not "ultra-detailed" but it should will serve us fine until I update in notes or re-post. This post will focus on Friday and Monday only. I should have an update Monday night. So the run RIGHT NOW should top round 7-8 AM. We should have one more minor check down. The expectation is to tag 2038 and retrace to 2025? or so BUT CLOSE AROUND 2040. We should get to 2065 before NY opens Monday.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
Comment:
7:06 AM, FOR BINARY RISK MANAGEMENT
a) basically, the opposite move
b) we always need to know what happens when the move we expect don't work
c) in high vol situations, it's almost ways the flipped mirror image
b) we always need to know what happens when the move we expect don't work
c) in high vol situations, it's almost ways the flipped mirror image
Comment:
01/26 8:16 AM ET, 18 MIN UNTIL PCE RELEASE, 2022.XX, MICRO BARS TREND FOR NEXT 75 MIN, OR UNTIL 9:30:
a) there should be one more round of zig zags before the final move up
b) so we run up to 8:30
c) then event swing for 60 minutes
d) then final move up at 9:30
e) that's I use 1 min bars and smaller to choose a route, it would be that
a) there should be one more round of zig zags before the final move up
b) so we run up to 8:30
c) then event swing for 60 minutes
d) then final move up at 9:30
e) that's I use 1 min bars and smaller to choose a route, it would be that
Comment:
8:31 REACTION DEFENSIVE STRATEGY
a) stop at 2019.5
b) if stop hit
c) wait it out to see price come back up
d) before going back in
a) stop at 2019.5
b) if stop hit
c) wait it out to see price come back up
d) before going back in
Comment:
e) I took the 2021 long here because the previous low (2017-2018) SHOULD HOLD
f) now we need to see price respond
g) so far has been disappointing
f) now we need to see price respond
g) so far has been disappointing
Comment:
h) going back in to hospital now
i) I just stopped out already
j) going to wait it out
i) I just stopped out already
j) going to wait it out
Comment:
8:40
k) back in second time same stop
l) should fly now
k) back in second time same stop
l) should fly now
Comment:
Comment:
9:27 AM ET 2020.xx
a) watch 2019.5 again
b) if bull thesis is correct, it must reverse up here
c) there's no more reasons why it should go down (except to move under 2000)
d) use same strategy as early for with 2019.5 stop FOR BOTH SHORTS AND LONGS HERE
e) meaning if it goes under and you short, your stop should be 2019.5
a) watch 2019.5 again
b) if bull thesis is correct, it must reverse up here
c) there's no more reasons why it should go down (except to move under 2000)
d) use same strategy as early for with 2019.5 stop FOR BOTH SHORTS AND LONGS HERE
e) meaning if it goes under and you short, your stop should be 2019.5
Comment:
6:27 PM ET
a) another signal busted
b) so consider:
a) another signal busted
b) so consider:
Comment:
c) while I've been doing regression forecasting I've figured out that
d) that intermediate forecasting is a waste of time because "classical" technical analysis already covered it
e) so until resistance breaks, it is sill resistance and vice versa
f) so in chart above those four vertical lines are FOMC, NFP, CPI and PPI
d) that intermediate forecasting is a waste of time because "classical" technical analysis already covered it
e) so until resistance breaks, it is sill resistance and vice versa
f) so in chart above those four vertical lines are FOMC, NFP, CPI and PPI
Comment:
g) and it's either going to be "cup and handle"
h) or failure at support and wipe out
i) it's interesting that price didn't close under 2000 today
j) because usually, failure of a "strong bull signal "means the opposite if it fails
k) so the short term regressions continue to coil
l) so that means this:
h) or failure at support and wipe out
i) it's interesting that price didn't close under 2000 today
j) because usually, failure of a "strong bull signal "means the opposite if it fails
k) so the short term regressions continue to coil
l) so that means this:
Comment:
m) so in chart above, just wait this out
n) after FOMC/NFP it's going to be obvious
o) either 2000 holds and we go up, or it fails and going to 50%+ correction long term
p) sorry to waste your time with these signals and intermediate forecasts
q) all I did in the last 2 months was prove that classical technical analysis works
r) and you can't improve on it
s) regression forecasting is best for 16-hour time frame only
n) after FOMC/NFP it's going to be obvious
o) either 2000 holds and we go up, or it fails and going to 50%+ correction long term
p) sorry to waste your time with these signals and intermediate forecasts
q) all I did in the last 2 months was prove that classical technical analysis works
r) and you can't improve on it
s) regression forecasting is best for 16-hour time frame only
Comment:
01/29 12:25 2029.XX going to 2045 now... after breaking resistance finally
a) sometime in 24 hours
b) and then stall
c) and then reverse around here again RIGHT AHEAD OF FOMC
d) so then FOMC spikes to 2060...
a) sometime in 24 hours
b) and then stall
c) and then reverse around here again RIGHT AHEAD OF FOMC
d) so then FOMC spikes to 2060...
Comment:
Comment:
1:07 PM ET, no, more like this:
Comment:
a) so down first
b) turn back up today, afternoon-evening
c) all the way up to 42-45 around Tuesday 9 AM
d) sideways to down for 12 hours, then back to right here 1925-ish right before FOMC
e) FOMC spike to 2055-60
f) that's basically next 55 hours
b) turn back up today, afternoon-evening
c) all the way up to 42-45 around Tuesday 9 AM
d) sideways to down for 12 hours, then back to right here 1925-ish right before FOMC
e) FOMC spike to 2055-60
f) that's basically next 55 hours
Comment:
3:37 PM got the break:
Comment:
3:42 PM ET, so for TUES-WED-THURS:
a) for chart above, not sure how Friday is supposed to go
b) the ceiling at 1960 should not break this week or, even next week...
c) so its either double-top-ishh Thursday night and down Friday OR
d) DOWN A BIT THURSDAY first, AND M TOP FRIDAY, then down next Monday
b) the ceiling at 1960 should not break this week or, even next week...
c) so its either double-top-ishh Thursday night and down Friday OR
d) DOWN A BIT THURSDAY first, AND M TOP FRIDAY, then down next Monday
Comment:
4:43 TYPO.. 2060, NOT 1960, sorry about that.
Comment:
01/29 9:07 PM ET, 2030.48, it is a decision time for
a) either up to 2040s now
b) if not, then down and sideways until FOMC
c) I don't know which would be favored
a) either up to 2040s now
b) if not, then down and sideways until FOMC
c) I don't know which would be favored
Comment:
d) so like:
e) micro bars say sit should come out blue
f) but it has to "prove it soon" or it will turn out gray
f) but it has to "prove it soon" or it will turn out gray
Comment:
01/30 8:08 AM 2035.XX, disappoint rejection at 2040 last night means "stretched out zig zag"
a) so at least one more attempt for 2042-45 zone, which already looks like immediate rejection
b) leading to sideways consolidation to FOMC
c) which means FOMC IS NOT A SPIKE, so like:
a) so at least one more attempt for 2042-45 zone, which already looks like immediate rejection
b) leading to sideways consolidation to FOMC
c) which means FOMC IS NOT A SPIKE, so like:
Comment:
Comment:
d) in chart above, short and intermediate trends still pushing pretty strong
e) so this 2030-35 level should hold FOMC's retrace (which maybe bigger than the hilight)
f) but it will still get back to 2030-area for Friday
g) so this spike to 2055-60 should be NFP
e) so this 2030-35 level should hold FOMC's retrace (which maybe bigger than the hilight)
f) but it will still get back to 2030-area for Friday
g) so this spike to 2055-60 should be NFP
Comment:
9:09 AM 2040.XX, no there's one more route that still leads to FOMC spike to 1960
a) so we need to top here first
b) we may need one more top after that (not sure)
c) then we will roll over back down
d) this is counter-intuitive but if we head down BEFORE FOMC... slowly
e) then we STILL SPIKE TO 1960 AFTER FOMC...
f) I will post what that should look like later after the top(s) for today
a) so we need to top here first
b) we may need one more top after that (not sure)
c) then we will roll over back down
d) this is counter-intuitive but if we head down BEFORE FOMC... slowly
e) then we STILL SPIKE TO 1960 AFTER FOMC...
f) I will post what that should look like later after the top(s) for today
Comment:
h) again if we just go sideways and DON'T HEAD DOWN...
i) for some reason, we are more likely to check down at FOMC
j) it is what it is
i) for some reason, we are more likely to check down at FOMC
j) it is what it is
Comment:
10:06 AM ET 2038.XX so got first top, now we need to know if we get second top
a) we should get it
b) if this hard drop for 46 to 38 turns into something worse..
c) then we should still get 1 LOWER TOP
d) which ever the case, the FOMC price action is STILL UNDECIDED RIGHT NOW
a) we should get it
b) if this hard drop for 46 to 38 turns into something worse..
c) then we should still get 1 LOWER TOP
d) which ever the case, the FOMC price action is STILL UNDECIDED RIGHT NOW
Comment:
10:45 AM so indeed something worse, but STILL UNDECIDED
a) so swing vol on 1-min bar is high AF right now (2-way)
b) that means bulls have about 2-hours to "make an impression"
c) and then bears' response to that second high,wherever it is ...
d) determines FOMC move up or down, I guess or both bc it's been SO ZIG ZAG....
a) so swing vol on 1-min bar is high AF right now (2-way)
b) that means bulls have about 2-hours to "make an impression"
c) and then bears' response to that second high,wherever it is ...
d) determines FOMC move up or down, I guess or both bc it's been SO ZIG ZAG....
Comment:
11:25 AM ET... so bulls are going to wait until the after noon
a) so that means the only LIKELY ROUTE that makes sense now is this
a) so that means the only LIKELY ROUTE that makes sense now is this
Comment:
b) in chart above, so one more lower high before midnight
c) and then back down here 2030-35 again
d) probably closer to 2030 right before FOMC moove to 42, 48, 55, and eventually 2060
c) and then back down here 2030-35 again
d) probably closer to 2030 right before FOMC moove to 42, 48, 55, and eventually 2060
Comment:
3) the next 2 moves should be retest and then 2038 near the close:
Comment:
a) no, I'm not sure that will be "retested to 2029" again...
b) bc we are OVERSOLD AF an 1-min bars
c) any way, so that allows us to some what foresee NFP....
d) again, counter-intuitive...
e) if high right before NFP, then it should be rugpull reaction
f) if low right before NFP then it should be spike reaction to "M top"
g) AND THEN RUG PULL like this:
b) bc we are OVERSOLD AF an 1-min bars
c) any way, so that allows us to some what foresee NFP....
d) again, counter-intuitive...
e) if high right before NFP, then it should be rugpull reaction
f) if low right before NFP then it should be spike reaction to "M top"
g) AND THEN RUG PULL like this:
Comment:
h) so in chart above:
i) yellow is if bulls move for 2040 soon, and I mean like 90 minutes or less
j) in that case, tonight's hight favor AN EQUAL OR EVEN HIGHER HIGH
l) whichever it is, odds favoring rugpull is very very high
m) and the then the light blue light gray are 2 ways NFP plays out
n) it's actually the same if viewed from 4H bar or bigger, bc same difference
i) yellow is if bulls move for 2040 soon, and I mean like 90 minutes or less
j) in that case, tonight's hight favor AN EQUAL OR EVEN HIGHER HIGH
l) whichever it is, odds favoring rugpull is very very high
m) and the then the light blue light gray are 2 ways NFP plays out
n) it's actually the same if viewed from 4H bar or bigger, bc same difference
Comment:
o) and while we are at it
p) if this happens, this then we have to see reaction to it first
Comment:
q) odds are it may be seen as double top and get sold anyway...
r) BUT THERE IS LIKE A 5% CHANCE RIGHT NOW IT RUNS ALL THE WAY TO 2055-60
s) and I mean today not tomorrow
t) usually we don't get a move back up that quickly after dropping almost 20 pts
u) but we the setup IS LIVE... so watch out for it
v) that's it today for me, have a good one
r) BUT THERE IS LIKE A 5% CHANCE RIGHT NOW IT RUNS ALL THE WAY TO 2055-60
s) and I mean today not tomorrow
t) usually we don't get a move back up that quickly after dropping almost 20 pts
u) but we the setup IS LIVE... so watch out for it
v) that's it today for me, have a good one
Comment:
12:41 PM 2034.XX, I think we have eliminated both yellow routes
a) closing near high
b) and higher before midnight
c) we can eliminate those now
d) so lower high before midnight is base case
a) closing near high
b) and higher before midnight
c) we can eliminate those now
d) so lower high before midnight is base case
Comment:
2:47 AM THIS IS NEW BASE CASE, LOWER TOP WITH LOWER LOW BEFORE FOMC:
Comment:
Comment:
5:38 PM, I am not seeing that much weakness around 7PM... so this whole thing will get pushed out 3 hours, like this:
Comment:
9:18 PM 2034.XX
Comment:
9:54 PM ET, 2033.xx
a) I can't even see a legit bounce now...
b) I see 28, 23, 19, maybe even 2016...
c) I'm not saying like immediately (might take to 6 AM)
d) but I don't see a big bounce coming
a) I can't even see a legit bounce now...
b) I see 28, 23, 19, maybe even 2016...
c) I'm not saying like immediately (might take to 6 AM)
d) but I don't see a big bounce coming
Comment:
01/30 11:49 PM ET 2034.29 ... ???? what is going on ???
a) ok I am stumped here
b) it moved down first and didn't go for the "lower high"
c) broke several rules of trend to get to 2033
d) and then stalled for hours (at a spot where trend is extremely weak)
e) so I don't have a clue what's the next move
a) ok I am stumped here
b) it moved down first and didn't go for the "lower high"
c) broke several rules of trend to get to 2033
d) and then stalled for hours (at a spot where trend is extremely weak)
e) so I don't have a clue what's the next move
Comment:
WEDNESDAY, 1/31, 6:45 AM, 2037.XX, 6 HOURS AHEAD OF FOMC
a) from where I left off last night, bulls pushed near 2040 and only now starting to slip
b) the trend maps were SO INCONCLUSIVE, that I could not have said that last night
c) can I see anything now?
d) not really, at the most, maybe 2031-32 by 10 AM
e) in theory, it's too late for 2020 by 11 AM, but I can not even conclusively
f) so I don't know anything right now
a) from where I left off last night, bulls pushed near 2040 and only now starting to slip
b) the trend maps were SO INCONCLUSIVE, that I could not have said that last night
c) can I see anything now?
d) not really, at the most, maybe 2031-32 by 10 AM
e) in theory, it's too late for 2020 by 11 AM, but I can not even conclusively
f) so I don't know anything right now
Comment:
g) honestly, I want to say 2020 by 11 AM and close 2045
h) but I can't prove it bc trend maps DO NOT AGREE
i) they also CANNOT AGREE in this situation, so it doesn't really help
j) if I see anything, I will add notes before FOMC
h) but I can't prove it bc trend maps DO NOT AGREE
i) they also CANNOT AGREE in this situation, so it doesn't really help
j) if I see anything, I will add notes before FOMC
Comment:
8:55 -2043.XX I wish I could say something's obvious but I don't have anything
a) ok so if it wants to blast off, obviously its aiming 2060
b) but hours ahead of FOMC?
c) I don't know what to make of it except becareful
a) ok so if it wants to blast off, obviously its aiming 2060
b) but hours ahead of FOMC?
c) I don't know what to make of it except becareful
Comment:
9:22 AM.. 2043.XX so it should 2063 not 2060 and that's all I can add
a) don't know if it's before or after FOMC
b) but if it is BEFORE... seems like it would sell off at FOMC
c) so this is just a guess, but if 63 soon... like 10-11 AM
d) that is an invitation for sell off at FOMC right?
e) I've never seen price move up strong like this INTO FOMC hours away
f) so again, be careful
a) don't know if it's before or after FOMC
b) but if it is BEFORE... seems like it would sell off at FOMC
c) so this is just a guess, but if 63 soon... like 10-11 AM
d) that is an invitation for sell off at FOMC right?
e) I've never seen price move up strong like this INTO FOMC hours away
f) so again, be careful
Comment:
10:13 2053.xx, intermediate bollingers say 2055 is a good top
a) we just tagged that a few minutes ago
b) I don't know if we can push higher being so close to FOMC...
c) that's a wrap for this one
a) we just tagged that a few minutes ago
b) I don't know if we can push higher being so close to FOMC...
c) that's a wrap for this one
Comment:
1:06 PM 54 min to FOMC and at 2048.xx.
a) there is a chance of second move to 2068 by the close
b) just warning in case you plan to short this
c) if it moves for 2065+, that's definitely a tactical short
d) whatever happens, there's more zig zag for the next 7 trading days
e) so we are not close to "break out" or even "break out setup"
f) that's it for me, have a good one
a) there is a chance of second move to 2068 by the close
b) just warning in case you plan to short this
c) if it moves for 2065+, that's definitely a tactical short
d) whatever happens, there's more zig zag for the next 7 trading days
e) so we are not close to "break out" or even "break out setup"
f) that's it for me, have a good one
Comment:
1:43 PM, 17 min to FOMC and ceiling has dropped to 2063 again
a) and I wonder if can even do that
b) the lower the retrace before FOMC, the lower the following high will be
c) there's also double top at 55-57 scenario if we keep retracing into FOMC
a) and I wonder if can even do that
b) the lower the retrace before FOMC, the lower the following high will be
c) there's also double top at 55-57 scenario if we keep retracing into FOMC
Comment:
2:44 PM 2050.xx, retraced too much into FOMC and also hung out at 42 area too long
a) so this compressed bollingers some more
b) that means ceiling is now 57-58
c) so base case is double top around 58
d) short term trends are so convoluted now bc of last 16 hours of price action
e) that makes handicapping routes impossible for a day or two
f) so to summarize:
1) base case is another top around 58
2) and then zig zag to NFP
3) then back down next week and closing NEXT WEEK around 2030-2040 again
4) so basically more zig zag, more sideways for next 7-8 trading days
a) so this compressed bollingers some more
b) that means ceiling is now 57-58
c) so base case is double top around 58
d) short term trends are so convoluted now bc of last 16 hours of price action
e) that makes handicapping routes impossible for a day or two
f) so to summarize:
1) base case is another top around 58
2) and then zig zag to NFP
3) then back down next week and closing NEXT WEEK around 2030-2040 again
4) so basically more zig zag, more sideways for next 7-8 trading days
Comment:
3:03 PM, 2035.xx, floor is 2023 if price for it
a) why?
b) probably something Powell said
c) I can't see this one coming, it's just too twisted now for me read to trend maps
a) why?
b) probably something Powell said
c) I can't see this one coming, it's just too twisted now for me read to trend maps
Comment:
3:10 PM POWELL said no cuts imminent
a) market dont like it
b) we going down hard
c) so floor is 23, 18, 16, unless something changes during the presser
a) market dont like it
b) we going down hard
c) so floor is 23, 18, 16, unless something changes during the presser
Comment:
3:37 PM ET 2031.XX
a) strategic ambiguity
b) meaning FED wants their cake and eat it too
c) they don't think they have to cut ... yet
d) meaning they will only cut if they need to cut
e) and they basically saying they don't have enough reasons to cut
f) for us floor is now immediately 1992 if this situation does not change
g) I'm not saying we are going there now, I'm saying it is "on the table" for bears to push at
a) strategic ambiguity
b) meaning FED wants their cake and eat it too
c) they don't think they have to cut ... yet
d) meaning they will only cut if they need to cut
e) and they basically saying they don't have enough reasons to cut
f) for us floor is now immediately 1992 if this situation does not change
g) I'm not saying we are going there now, I'm saying it is "on the table" for bears to push at
Comment:
h) no, LOWER... it would be 1970-75
i) but bears still need an excuse to sell off hard and NFP is in 42 hours
j) seems like we have a shot at closing this week at 1972
i) but bears still need an excuse to sell off hard and NFP is in 42 hours
j) seems like we have a shot at closing this week at 1972
Comment:
4:56 PM ET, so I'm on this route now:
Related Ideas
a) I checked this one out
b) it would be a disappointment if we can't close 2040