GOLD 01/10-03/08 BREAKOUT DRAFT 3
INTRODUCTION - This is the 01/19/24 binary, 3-hour bar, 16-trading day ultra detailed, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. From the notes in end of DRAFT 2, this is the "inverse head-and-shoulders" break-out scenario derived from current short and intermediate (over long and very long) regression trends. Because of the composition of all combined trends, this scenario itself is a borderline "miracle" in order to have everything fit from here to 03/08. That is basically saying this could fail in 10 hours.
DETAILS - This draft has the break of the 2135-sell off resistance trend line on 01/26. The true "breakout" should be on February 2nd, give or take 12 hours. There maybe one more check down to 2015-ish around the 7:30 AM ET event time. The way the intermediate trends are set, this route does not allow high 2-way vol from 02/02-02/09. This is because the shorter intermediate trends ARE SO FAR BELOW the longer intermediate trends, that the resetting of their position (think catch-up repositioning) require price action to be - more or less - a straight one way line (as opposed to zig-zag and regular retracing) and that 2065-2135 must also be restricted to 6-7 trading days.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
DETAILS - This draft has the break of the 2135-sell off resistance trend line on 01/26. The true "breakout" should be on February 2nd, give or take 12 hours. There maybe one more check down to 2015-ish around the 7:30 AM ET event time. The way the intermediate trends are set, this route does not allow high 2-way vol from 02/02-02/09. This is because the shorter intermediate trends ARE SO FAR BELOW the longer intermediate trends, that the resetting of their position (think catch-up repositioning) require price action to be - more or less - a straight one way line (as opposed to zig-zag and regular retracing) and that 2065-2135 must also be restricted to 6-7 trading days.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
Comment:
1:27 AM ET signals for this morning
a) so if check first, it is 2015
b) then 2048
c) if resistance breaks then 2055, that's still under a coin flip right now
d) if it gets there then retrace to 48 is obvious then the rest is gray right now
e) if close is 2048 or higher then the route to end of 01/26 is immediately the favorite
f) beyond that is way too early
a) so if check first, it is 2015
b) then 2048
c) if resistance breaks then 2055, that's still under a coin flip right now
d) if it gets there then retrace to 48 is obvious then the rest is gray right now
e) if close is 2048 or higher then the route to end of 01/26 is immediately the favorite
f) beyond that is way too early
Comment:
g) 1:39 AM ET, if price moves for 2028 and hold it for couple of hours...
h) then you might get pop to 35 and then zig zag between 25-35 for the morning 8:30 AM ET event time
i) in which case, no retrace to 2015
j) then close above 2048 may even be likely by 10 AM
h) then you might get pop to 35 and then zig zag between 25-35 for the morning 8:30 AM ET event time
i) in which case, no retrace to 2015
j) then close above 2048 may even be likely by 10 AM
Comment:
k) no, it would be 2032 not 2035, then zig zag between 2023 and 2032
l) that's it, good night
l) that's it, good night
Comment:
8:02 AM 2033.XX
a) exactly like previous notes stated
b) in my opinion, we are favored to close above 2048
c) but 8:30 AM event time vol zone for check down IS STILL 2020
d) I am not saying it's going to hit, but the zone wide open for it to if it does
e) if we close above 2048 this route is THE FAVORITE VS ENTIRE FIELD THROUGH
f) 01/26 move for 2090...
g) not going to say anything beyond that SO WE DON JINX THIS THING
h) there's more setups after this one that we can entertain
i) (bc they all require litterally straight line price action (IMPOSSIBLE ROUTES)
a) exactly like previous notes stated
b) in my opinion, we are favored to close above 2048
c) but 8:30 AM event time vol zone for check down IS STILL 2020
d) I am not saying it's going to hit, but the zone wide open for it to if it does
e) if we close above 2048 this route is THE FAVORITE VS ENTIRE FIELD THROUGH
f) 01/26 move for 2090...
g) not going to say anything beyond that SO WE DON JINX THIS THING
h) there's more setups after this one that we can entertain
i) (bc they all require litterally straight line price action (IMPOSSIBLE ROUTES)
Comment:
8:27 AM ET 37..XX
a) checkdown floor now 24-29
b) looking for this to close over 48... we will see
a) checkdown floor now 24-29
b) looking for this to close over 48... we will see
Comment:
8:54 AM ET 35.XX
a) odds on closing above 48 now swinging between 2:1 and 1:2
b) meaning between 35-65% roughly
c) also means averaging less than 50%
d) WE NEEED THAT BADLY TODAY
e) but extrapolations through Monday favors 2055-2060 getting hit once or twice is like 80-905 RIGHT NOW
f)
a) odds on closing above 48 now swinging between 2:1 and 1:2
b) meaning between 35-65% roughly
c) also means averaging less than 50%
d) WE NEEED THAT BADLY TODAY
e) but extrapolations through Monday favors 2055-2060 getting hit once or twice is like 80-905 RIGHT NOW
f)
Comment:
f) this is 17:3 at at least... let me check again
Comment:
g) typo on f) at 8:02 AM, there's NO more... that we can entertain (I keep leaving out the NO in these notes sometimes)
Comment:
9:37 AM ET TO ANSWER KALEEMKHAN111'S QUESTION: '"you mean the bulls are not strong?"
a) right now out of 20 sets of trend maps
b) bulls are favored to be over major resistance on Monday night 2050-2060
c) and those odds are 13-5-2 (so 13 sets favor, 5 sets do not favor and 2 sets neutral)
d) and it has drop 12 pts from 2039 as I typed now trading 2027:54
a) right now out of 20 sets of trend maps
b) bulls are favored to be over major resistance on Monday night 2050-2060
c) and those odds are 13-5-2 (so 13 sets favor, 5 sets do not favor and 2 sets neutral)
d) and it has drop 12 pts from 2039 as I typed now trading 2027:54
Comment:
Comment:
e) in chart above, those were all the spikes the last 50 days that I said would happen
d) and I also they would lead to building a break out setup
e) NONE OF THEM DID
f) we are at the last possible moment
g) and it is not funny that we are right in the middle of blue and orange routes right now with this check down
h) miss this window and it's REALLY OVER for a long time
i) that doesn't mean that gold can't trade side ways between 2140 and 1610 for years and years and years
j) that's just means it's a waste of out time to pay attention
d) and I also they would lead to building a break out setup
e) NONE OF THEM DID
f) we are at the last possible moment
g) and it is not funny that we are right in the middle of blue and orange routes right now with this check down
h) miss this window and it's REALLY OVER for a long time
i) that doesn't mean that gold can't trade side ways between 2140 and 1610 for years and years and years
j) that's just means it's a waste of out time to pay attention
Comment:
9:47 AM 2026.XX and now we arrive at THE MOMENT OF TRUTH
a) an hour ago I said check down floor was 23-29
b) and here we are
c) the last breath of gold bull market
d) that's a wrap a for me today, will add notes if we close strong
e) if we don't, another waste of time
a) an hour ago I said check down floor was 23-29
b) and here we are
c) the last breath of gold bull market
d) that's a wrap a for me today, will add notes if we close strong
e) if we don't, another waste of time
Comment:
01/19, 10:18 AM ET, 2023.XX
a) at check down floor for daily vol
b) if bears break this, this will get ugly really fast
c) this has happened each of the previous Fridays, run up, get shot down
d) the reason that this is the last possible moment is this turns into a setup for 1820-40 for end of February if bulls cannot close here
a) at check down floor for daily vol
b) if bears break this, this will get ugly really fast
c) this has happened each of the previous Fridays, run up, get shot down
d) the reason that this is the last possible moment is this turns into a setup for 1820-40 for end of February if bulls cannot close here
Comment:
10:33 AM ET, 2024.XX so bulls window to close strong starts now
a) and expire at about 1:30 PM ET, when futures options close
b) they have a real shot
c) but they have to on time for this curve:
a) and expire at about 1:30 PM ET, when futures options close
b) they have a real shot
c) but they have to on time for this curve:
Comment:
d) in chart above:
e) so price needs to be around 2042 at 1 PMET
f) that's less than 150 minutes
e) so price needs to be around 2042 at 1 PMET
f) that's less than 150 minutes
Comment:
g) if they are going for it
h) it should be obvious by 11:20, so in roughly 40 minutes, if nothing by then...
i) sorry it was waste of time
h) it should be obvious by 11:20, so in roughly 40 minutes, if nothing by then...
i) sorry it was waste of time
Comment:
Comment:
a) in chart above, if this happens ...
b) bulls should make a second run, break 2039, get to 2042...
c) howevver, it is now unlikely that they will reach 2048
b) bulls should make a second run, break 2039, get to 2042...
c) howevver, it is now unlikely that they will reach 2048
Comment:
Comment:
Comment:
12:27 PM --- we have a shot at closing 2035-ish
a) this is not enough for anything
b) but it's enough to keep the route LIVE for Sunday and Monday
c) if price can get past that resistance, it should tag 2060 once or twice late Sunday or Monday
d) even now at 2027, we are favored to make 2055 area Monday
e) but because it will be late for DRAFT 3, what I don't know is if that sideways to down move...
f) in chart at top for Mon until Friday is still the favored move
a) this is not enough for anything
b) but it's enough to keep the route LIVE for Sunday and Monday
c) if price can get past that resistance, it should tag 2060 once or twice late Sunday or Monday
d) even now at 2027, we are favored to make 2055 area Monday
e) but because it will be late for DRAFT 3, what I don't know is if that sideways to down move...
f) in chart at top for Mon until Friday is still the favored move
Comment:
3:19 PM ET... 2028.64, ANNOYING AF!!!!!
a) not going make it to 2035
b) no longer favorite to make 2055 Monday night
c) sigh....
d) how is that knowable?
e) moving regressions vs moving bolllinger bands
f) the regressions have to keep up with the bands
g) they are saying 2042 may get hit and that would be it
a) not going make it to 2035
b) no longer favorite to make 2055 Monday night
c) sigh....
d) how is that knowable?
e) moving regressions vs moving bolllinger bands
f) the regressions have to keep up with the bands
g) they are saying 2042 may get hit and that would be it
Comment:
4:00 PM ET still 28.xx and looking terrible
a) raw assessment is not even 2042 that
b) first stall and sideways
c) can't break resistance until Tuesday
d) and that is probably too late
e) why? because all the trends have to be on time
f) if not, the Tuesday break will look like a false break...
g) and is likely (from here) to reverse down
a) raw assessment is not even 2042 that
b) first stall and sideways
c) can't break resistance until Tuesday
d) and that is probably too late
e) why? because all the trends have to be on time
f) if not, the Tuesday break will look like a false break...
g) and is likely (from here) to reverse down
Comment:
h) typo on a)... not even 2042 that early
Comment:
01/19 5:06 PM ET AFTER MARKET WRAP UP, EVERYTHING ON THE TABLE...
a) yesterday and today actually saw bulls come back from the dead
b) they have some momentum but not enough yet
c) so this goes to the heart of my work on "intermediate forecasting"' mirror image problem
d) so:
a) yesterday and today actually saw bulls come back from the dead
b) they have some momentum but not enough yet
c) so this goes to the heart of my work on "intermediate forecasting"' mirror image problem
d) so:
Comment:
NO! like this, this is better:
Comment:
That's still not right bc Sunday night is a bank page. It maybe stronger than anticipated.
Comment:
THIS POST HAS ENDED - HERE IS FINAL ATTEMPT AT A SETUP:
Comment:
Related Ideas
a) this draft has no room for error
b) price must virtually hit blue hi-light the entire way
c) so the odds of something like that is LOOOOOOOOOOW
d) just so we are clear first
e) for tomorrow price needs to break first resistance get to 2055 AND HOLD OVER THAT LINE
g) ALL THE WAY TO 01/26 when it moves for 2090-ish
h) if it moves for 2045 AND HOLD UNDER THAT LINE....
i) whatever low odds it has to make it, cut that by 75-80%
j) have a good weekend