GOLD 01/10-03/08 BREAKOUT DRAFT 2
INTRODUCTION - This is the 01/16/24 (daily) binary, 15-min bar, ten-day ultra detailed, CONTINUOUS & EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. I have talked twenty months, blah blah and blah, but all hat and no cattle. We are running out of time AND routes to complete this setup by 01/25 deadline.
DETAILS - Continuing from DRAFT 1, price took orange route as expected and that leaves us with the chart above as the binary outcomes for the next 10 days. The price action has gotten so bearish on a 3-4 week basis that only if price follows the highest blue route (dotted line) can we realistically expect a break out on 01/26. If price follows the median blue route (orange line), a back door collapse maybe the favorite even before 01/24. This is the same outcome in DRAFT 1 (but shorter time frame), where price fakes the blue route only take orange route at last second. In chart above, black line is support trend from October's 1810 but THE BLUE LINE IS THE LINE THAT MUST HOLD to this expect this to work out. If price breaks blue line and tests black line, especially more than once, it reasonable to expect blue route to start failing on 01/25.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
DETAILS - Continuing from DRAFT 1, price took orange route as expected and that leaves us with the chart above as the binary outcomes for the next 10 days. The price action has gotten so bearish on a 3-4 week basis that only if price follows the highest blue route (dotted line) can we realistically expect a break out on 01/26. If price follows the median blue route (orange line), a back door collapse maybe the favorite even before 01/24. This is the same outcome in DRAFT 1 (but shorter time frame), where price fakes the blue route only take orange route at last second. In chart above, black line is support trend from October's 1810 but THE BLUE LINE IS THE LINE THAT MUST HOLD to this expect this to work out. If price breaks blue line and tests black line, especially more than once, it reasonable to expect blue route to start failing on 01/25.
WARNING - This material is for experienced and responsible traders only. If you have any question in your mind whether you are experienced or responsible, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As precaution, the first rule of trading is DO NOT lose money. As reminder, the second rule of trading is do not forget the first rule. As prerequisite, please familiarize with this process first before applying to your strategy. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement but NOT REPLACE your trading discipline and risk management. If the limits of the update feature or update frequency do not satisfy your risk profile, then THIS IS NOT FOR YOU. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully to you, IMMEDIATELY SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively. If it is not obvious to you what meaningfully means in this context, then I repeat for a third and final time, THIS IS NOT FOR YOU.
Comment:
d) so that move above has 2 legs
e) the first is possible, maybe even coin-flipping
f) I can't see the second move ...
g) so base 2 regression trend maps is saying this maybe the end here...
h) man that's disappointing
e) the first is possible, maybe even coin-flipping
f) I can't see the second move ...
g) so base 2 regression trend maps is saying this maybe the end here...
h) man that's disappointing
Comment:
6:50 PM ET.. so I have a signal for spike up within 48 hours
a) I can't tell when or how big
b) but it's there and it has "potential to correct price's position"
c) so wanted to say that in case it happens before I figure it out
a) I can't tell when or how big
b) but it's there and it has "potential to correct price's position"
c) so wanted to say that in case it happens before I figure it out
Comment:
d) so it has potential to hit both of the two levels we need
e) which is bottom and top of this box by Friday's close
f) it happens to be what we need badly right now for this "01/26 break out" to work
g) but I AM STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT the numbers (when, how, big, reversal, etc...)
h) so possible, but I can't say probable
i) I can say we should 58-62 on the first move and that should complete by Thursday morning
j) but could be tomorrow morning
e) which is bottom and top of this box by Friday's close
g) but I AM STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT the numbers (when, how, big, reversal, etc...)
h) so possible, but I can't say probable
i) I can say we should 58-62 on the first move and that should complete by Thursday morning
j) but could be tomorrow morning
Comment:
7:26 PM ET, ok here's what that signal says, first the chart:
Comment:
a) so it's not really "2 legs"
b) it's a long zig zag
c) it's not quite ready yet
d) IF EARLY it moves midnight tonight in six hours
e) IF LATE it moves sometime during NY session tomorrow
f) so my raw guess is 6-8 AM tomorrow, but I think I MAYBE OVERESTIMATING just bc we are so bearish short-term
g) AFTER IT MOVES, stops are 45, 55, 65 and 80 by Friday end of day
h) it needs to spend some time STUCK IN THAT BOX
i) if it moves under that box that could kill the signal if it's not INSTANT STICK-SAVE
j) in this context, 5 minutes or less; more than and that's SUPICIOUS AF ok?
b) it's a long zig zag
c) it's not quite ready yet
d) IF EARLY it moves midnight tonight in six hours
e) IF LATE it moves sometime during NY session tomorrow
f) so my raw guess is 6-8 AM tomorrow, but I think I MAYBE OVERESTIMATING just bc we are so bearish short-term
g) AFTER IT MOVES, stops are 45, 55, 65 and 80 by Friday end of day
h) it needs to spend some time STUCK IN THAT BOX
i) if it moves under that box that could kill the signal if it's not INSTANT STICK-SAVE
j) in this context, 5 minutes or less; more than and that's SUPICIOUS AF ok?
Comment:
k) if and when it hits 65 we need reconfirmation of the rest of the move
Comment:
8:32 PM ET... ok so it may move earlier than I thought (I'm still up, I'll keep posted)
a) let me say this first, the "break out setup picture" IS UGLY AF
b) so ugly that if it's really going to break out there can be 3 surprises from here to 01/30
c) that means the first move up from here should be a "surprise" that it can be too strong
d) then the final retest will excessive (you wouldn't think it can get "that low" again)
e) then the move up should be shocking when everybody gives up
a) let me say this first, the "break out setup picture" IS UGLY AF
b) so ugly that if it's really going to break out there can be 3 surprises from here to 01/30
c) that means the first move up from here should be a "surprise" that it can be too strong
d) then the final retest will excessive (you wouldn't think it can get "that low" again)
e) then the move up should be shocking when everybody gives up
Comment:
f) so that means UP-DOWN-UP, each time excessive
g) that is what it should take to "reset the trends to break out on 12/26"
g) that is what it should take to "reset the trends to break out on 12/26"
Comment:
h) so in my mind, it should be like this:
Comment:
10:43 PM STOPPED OUT 2024.75
a) it's going lower first
b) under that box, this may break the signal so I am watching
a) it's going lower first
b) under that box, this may break the signal so I am watching
Comment:
11:05 PM ET so here's that box zoomed in:
a) trend map says we need a spike like this over the blue line to keep the signal live
b) usually, it's immediate
c) so the response after hitting bottom of that box so far is not good
d) if nothing changes by 11:30, this will change the entire picture for the chart at top
e) it may not do any of that
b) usually, it's immediate
c) so the response after hitting bottom of that box so far is not good
d) if nothing changes by 11:30, this will change the entire picture for the chart at top
e) it may not do any of that
Comment:
11:16 PM ET so when that signal comes up and price does not react to that box
a) the great majority of the time in this type of scenario...
b) you wind into a triangle for the next 5-6 trading days like this:
a) the great majority of the time in this type of scenario...
b) you wind into a triangle for the next 5-6 trading days like this:
Comment:
c) so in chart above, let's call signal for gray route dead now
d) so black line is - for whatever reasons - the result of that signal failing
e) so for the next week, it doesn't look like anything will happen until 01/25 or 01/26
d) so black line is - for whatever reasons - the result of that signal failing
e) so for the next week, it doesn't look like anything will happen until 01/25 or 01/26
Comment:
f) this is obviously in the middle of the hi-lights of both routes
g) so take a week off and we'll go on from there
g) so take a week off and we'll go on from there
Comment:
01/16 12:25 AM ET 2019.XX, so price went straight through that box
a) so it's orange from here on out
b) bull market officially dead
a) so it's orange from here on out
b) bull market officially dead
Comment:
12:35 AM so this thing is going to die one of two ways
1) triangle like chart above here, then STRAIGHT DOWN COLLAPSE
2) follow through with orange route, but really dragged out collapse
3) right now, triangle is favored, but we will know more tomorrow morning
1) triangle like chart above here, then STRAIGHT DOWN COLLAPSE
2) follow through with orange route, but really dragged out collapse
3) right now, triangle is favored, but we will know more tomorrow morning
Comment:
1:07 AM 2019.xx we are going to bounce a bit eventually to the morning
a) and then it is orange route to finish Wed and thursday
b) what this means?
c) there's' no chance of bull comeback now
d) so after going under 1995 late Wed/Thurs
e) we are going find a way to 1830
f) the sooner we get there, the sooner we can talk 1600
a) and then it is orange route to finish Wed and thursday
b) what this means?
c) there's' no chance of bull comeback now
d) so after going under 1995 late Wed/Thurs
e) we are going find a way to 1830
f) the sooner we get there, the sooner we can talk 1600
Comment:
01/17 8:34 AM, 2022.xx, sticking with orange route right now...
a) with minor variations of "how to get down 1995"
b) so basically how zig zag needs to happen before price makes a move to break 2000
c) the triangle route has not gone away (meaning 45 first then back down)
d) but orange route odds is favorite again
a) with minor variations of "how to get down 1995"
b) so basically how zig zag needs to happen before price makes a move to break 2000
c) the triangle route has not gone away (meaning 45 first then back down)
d) but orange route odds is favorite again
Comment:
8:56 AM ET, 2021.xx, it seems like bears one 1995 today instead of waiting for tomorrow
a) but it' not obvious they can do it
b) it "seems like", meaning it looks like this but it can change any minute, they are moving for 2005 and will stall
c) saving 1995 for tomorrow
d) that's a raw assessment of short term trends
a) but it' not obvious they can do it
b) it "seems like", meaning it looks like this but it can change any minute, they are moving for 2005 and will stall
c) saving 1995 for tomorrow
d) that's a raw assessment of short term trends
Comment:
01/17 9:20 AM ET, if you play the chart at top
a) where the blue and black lines cross
b) price broke through that and the bears are trying hard for 2005
c) they are not "on time" THEY ARE EARLY
d) if they are successful today AND especially if they close 199X
e) this a GIANT signal that 1930 will get hit inside 40 trading days or by 03/15/24
a) where the blue and black lines cross
b) price broke through that and the bears are trying hard for 2005
c) they are not "on time" THEY ARE EARLY
d) if they are successful today AND especially if they close 199X
e) this a GIANT signal that 1930 will get hit inside 40 trading days or by 03/15/24
Comment:
f) CORRECTION, this is a GIANT signal that 1830 will get hit...
g) I mean 1930 is obvious, but I meant 1830
g) I mean 1930 is obvious, but I meant 1830
Comment:
9:48 AM ... so let's change it to 1850 so we can cut time down
a) so if the aim is 1850 and not 1830...
b) and a weaker or faster orange route vs chart at top is the outcome to next Wednesday
c) it would reasonable on 02/23, 27 trading days out
a) so if the aim is 1850 and not 1830...
b) and a weaker or faster orange route vs chart at top is the outcome to next Wednesday
c) it would reasonable on 02/23, 27 trading days out
Comment:
d) no, even quicker 02/16, 22 trading days out, AND MAYBE EVEN FRIDAY 02/09
Comment:
01/17 10:38 AM, 2008.xx after 2006.xx
a) so I think that's it for today
b) I mean I could be wrong and they push one more time for 2000-2002
c) but we're kind of splitting hairs here unless I watch 5 second bars and update 'continuously all the time
d) and the moderators WILLL BAN ME for that so ... NOT DOING THAT
e) long story short, that's impressive none the less that bears can "exceed the bulls' mirror image"
f) bouncing now 2011.xx as I type
g) so we need new trend maps to 01/26 (even though that overall pattern should hold)
h) but the bears have proven they can deliver beyond the averages
a) so I think that's it for today
b) I mean I could be wrong and they push one more time for 2000-2002
c) but we're kind of splitting hairs here unless I watch 5 second bars and update 'continuously all the time
d) and the moderators WILLL BAN ME for that so ... NOT DOING THAT
e) long story short, that's impressive none the less that bears can "exceed the bulls' mirror image"
f) bouncing now 2011.xx as I type
g) so we need new trend maps to 01/26 (even though that overall pattern should hold)
h) but the bears have proven they can deliver beyond the averages
Comment:
01/17 11:40 AM ET... so I gotta get going but bears want to push down again
a) but they don't have forever
b) they have 30-40 minutes to push for one more low
c) but that would be it
d) if bulls make 2011 again bc it's 2009.03 as I am typing
e) then odds of a new low could disappear
f) if they are strong like they are announcing
g) they will make to 2003 or lower
a) but they don't have forever
b) they have 30-40 minutes to push for one more low
c) but that would be it
d) if bulls make 2011 again bc it's 2009.03 as I am typing
e) then odds of a new low could disappear
f) if they are strong like they are announcing
g) they will make to 2003 or lower
Comment:
12:18 AM so trend map keeps shifting more bearishly bc of lack of response from 2005 area so:
1) it COULD shift more, but I doubt it:
1) it COULD shift more, but I doubt it:
Comment:
a) I don't know if we hit 1995 overnight
b) but it would see like bears will try to break 2000
c) oversold bounce will take us to Thursday 5-7 AM 2010-ishh
d) Thurs night 1985
e) 1972 Friday close
f) I don't know if we can get worse than this bc we are pushing standard deviation limits right now
g) so I'll try to get a new map out tonight
b) but it would see like bears will try to break 2000
c) oversold bounce will take us to Thursday 5-7 AM 2010-ishh
d) Thurs night 1985
e) 1972 Friday close
f) I don't know if we can get worse than this bc we are pushing standard deviation limits right now
g) so I'll try to get a new map out tonight
Comment:
h) and just deleted all new hi-lights by accident... mother...
i) and cant hit undo bc it's overloaded
j) ANNOYING AF
k) just follow chart above with the notes until I've got something
i) and cant hit undo bc it's overloaded
j) ANNOYING AF
k) just follow chart above with the notes until I've got something
Comment:
8:13 PM ET 2010.xx
a) we hit that first high
b) I don't see 1995 over night this stretch is very vague right now
c) so I think it's sideways if anything
d) still think bulls have a hard time getting past 2013
d) anything past that would be a good short if you are up over night
e) otherwise, it should be sideways from here to 7 AM around 2012
f) there should one surprise in the next 8 hours
g) I am not sure what that surprise is
a) we hit that first high
b) I don't see 1995 over night this stretch is very vague right now
c) so I think it's sideways if anything
d) still think bulls have a hard time getting past 2013
d) anything past that would be a good short if you are up over night
e) otherwise, it should be sideways from here to 7 AM around 2012
f) there should one surprise in the next 8 hours
g) I am not sure what that surprise is
Comment:
8:30 so here's what the surprise SHOULD BE IF THERE IS ONE:
Comment:
8:51 NO, IT WOULD BE UP FROM HERE
a) but I can't map it
b) because it's a surprise move
a) but I can't map it
b) because it's a surprise move
Comment:
9:02 PM ET ... why?
a) so chart above was a pretty good guess
b) if I make a second chart, it would have to be a worse guess even if it hit...
c) does that make any sense?
d) bc I would have to predict something that's not supposed to be there
e) but let's say I did anyway.... I would say 2018-20 in 3-4 hours AND STALL
f) but again, it's A GUESS its not evidence driven
a) so chart above was a pretty good guess
b) if I make a second chart, it would have to be a worse guess even if it hit...
c) does that make any sense?
d) bc I would have to predict something that's not supposed to be there
e) but let's say I did anyway.... I would say 2018-20 in 3-4 hours AND STALL
f) but again, it's A GUESS its not evidence driven
Comment:
9:44 PM ET, I AM NOT GOING TO GET THIS AREA RIGHT
a) from here to 6 AM
b) bc the picture is irregular
c) my original view is that 2013 should hold
d) but the regression picture for 1, 2, 4 minute bar is irregular
e) SO IT SHOULD DO SOMETHING I do not expect
f) what that is, I DO NOT KNOW and I'm not staying up tonight
g) what I do know is the 7 AM high should be a good short
h) will confirm in the morning
a) from here to 6 AM
b) bc the picture is irregular
c) my original view is that 2013 should hold
d) but the regression picture for 1, 2, 4 minute bar is irregular
e) SO IT SHOULD DO SOMETHING I do not expect
f) what that is, I DO NOT KNOW and I'm not staying up tonight
g) what I do know is the 7 AM high should be a good short
h) will confirm in the morning
Comment:
9:59 PM, so this does make sense
a) in the afternoon where it says 1995?, the question mark meant I didn't know
b) a little bit ago, I said it wasn't' going to happen tonight
c) I DON'T KNOW THAT, I assumed that bc of the irregular regression picture
d) so if it did, it would be a surprise
a) in the afternoon where it says 1995?, the question mark meant I didn't know
b) a little bit ago, I said it wasn't' going to happen tonight
c) I DON'T KNOW THAT, I assumed that bc of the irregular regression picture
d) so if it did, it would be a surprise
Comment:
9:21 AM, 01/18 2011.XX, so THIS POST ENDED until I have something
a) need updated trend maps
b) I don't have them
c) it has basically switched to "sideways to down"
d) bc we are at the low end of many intermediate volatility zones
a) need updated trend maps
b) I don't have them
c) it has basically switched to "sideways to down"
d) bc we are at the low end of many intermediate volatility zones
Comment:
Thursday, 01/18, 2:38 PM, 2019.24, don't know what to make of it
a) so I still don't have anything
b) because price has not anything that gives away the next move
c) this close is important for bulls if they "want to make something happen"
d) they will need a lot more than this, but they do have an interesting "swing route"
e) if nothing else happens in the next hour and change before market closes..
f) overnight will decide everything ahead of Friday open
a) so I still don't have anything
b) because price has not anything that gives away the next move
c) this close is important for bulls if they "want to make something happen"
d) they will need a lot more than this, but they do have an interesting "swing route"
e) if nothing else happens in the next hour and change before market closes..
f) overnight will decide everything ahead of Friday open
Comment:
01/18 8:42 PM ET 2025.39, I'm so tired of gold bull thesis by now, I literally hate it.
a) if you use 3 day starting value and use 2x layers both direction (this is 1 of my 10 ratios)
b) this move that is happening is kind of impossible (statistically speaking)
c) especially considering how weak price was yesterday
d) so when one of my ratios say a move that is happening that is supposed to be impossible...
e) something is up, and it's notjust the $23 from 2002
a) if you use 3 day starting value and use 2x layers both direction (this is 1 of my 10 ratios)
b) this move that is happening is kind of impossible (statistically speaking)
c) especially considering how weak price was yesterday
d) so when one of my ratios say a move that is happening that is supposed to be impossible...
e) something is up, and it's notjust the $23 from 2002
Comment:
f) so in the afternoon I said bulls have "an interesting swing route"
g) it's a bit more than interesting
h) but I am so tired of waiting for bull setups that keep failing I am not drafting "DRAFT 3" ...
i) until price is screaming for it
g) it's a bit more than interesting
h) but I am so tired of waiting for bull setups that keep failing I am not drafting "DRAFT 3" ...
i) until price is screaming for it
Comment:
j) but first, the incoming price action for next 36 hours...
k) play the chart above
l) what it is saying now...
m) is that it will REMERGE WITH THE BLUE ROUTE AND GO BACK UP...
n) like UNREAL....
o) I'VE NEVER SEEN price switch sides like that (blue-orange-blue)
p) but apparently, that's what's coming
k) play the chart above
l) what it is saying now...
m) is that it will REMERGE WITH THE BLUE ROUTE AND GO BACK UP...
n) like UNREAL....
o) I'VE NEVER SEEN price switch sides like that (blue-orange-blue)
p) but apparently, that's what's coming
Comment:
q) I am so sick of gold by now..... but here's VERY ROUGH DRAFT look from 8-hour bar
r) in chart above:
s) so this DOES COMPLETE 'the breakout setup" by 01/25 ...
t) in a very twisted fashion
s) so this DOES COMPLETE 'the breakout setup" by 01/25 ...
t) in a very twisted fashion
Comment:
9:32 PM ET so then:
Comment:
THAT IS A WRAP FOR DRAFT 2, AND HERE IS DRAFT 3:
Related Ideas
a) I data mined last couple of hours and am not even sure the strongest route above would be on time
b) that's how tough of a spot this is
c) the move that no doubt can work would be this: