MQP

MQP 22 DRAFT1, NO MORE MIRACLES FOR GOLD, TIME TO DIE

Short
FX_IDC:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
HEADER - I ended 20H FINAL DRAFT hours ago. Stating that all longs have been closed. I am basically 300% short.

SUMMARY - Failure to get to 1891/1892 today guaranteed this scenario next. The only question left is when 1700 will come?

DETAILS - I will add later when I have time. But basically I see 1700 on 5/31, maybe even 5/30 (next Monday). Odds by Friday 06/03 is through the roof (as of now). For background, links to last 7 or so posts below.
Comment: 8:31 AM Wednesday 5/25

1. touched 1851 a bit ago, stalling at 1855 as I post this
2. first target today 1839, sometime before NY close, 6.5 hours out
3. price should stall at 1839 before heading to 1831 and stalling again
Comment: 11.48 AM ET 1848

1. 1839 is going to hold
2. followed by a sideways fight for 10 hours give or take
3. dead cat high should be around 10 PM, 1849-1853
4. then continuous rolling over to 1780 end of Friday
Comment: 12 noon. THERE IS 1 POSSIBLE BULLISH OUTCOME LEFT.

1. support came in some what strong at 1841.5
2. futures held at same and not lower
3. I am closing my shorts soon to wait for reentry
Comment: 4. that is re-short on confirmation of death of last bullish outcome
Comment: 1 PM CLOSED SHORTS 1 AT 1844.8

Now we wait to short the next highs
Comment: Likely around 10 pm et
Comment: 1:11 PM

1. so ATM GC 5/27 calls are 2x cost of puts
2. as if EVERYONE is expecting a MASSIVE BOUNCE
3. I disagree, I think the bounce won't get past
1853
4. we are going to know in 10 hours or less
Comment: 2:28 PM

1. so spot is at 1851.5-ish, and futures (GC) is at 1850 flat
2. BUT 1850 GC 5/27 call is 11.9/12.1 bid/ask.
3. AND 1850 GC 5/27 put is 6.1/6.2, so basically 12 vs 6.15
4. even worse BEFORE FED MINUTES (2pm), it was...
5. 12.6 vs. 5.95
6. price stalled at 1853 as predicted
7. the curves are tighter than I thought...
8. meaning we will know before PM ET what it's doing
Comment: Typo 7 PM
Comment: 6:45 PM ET WED 5/25

1. FIRST, THE QUOTES WERE WRONG. MY FAULT.
2. it was rollover, I was looking at Q22, second month futures which is +$5 over spot 3. so when spot was 1851.5, M22, front month was 1850 flat, but Q22 was 1856.xx
4. hence the misquotes
5. having hit 1856 in spot, while I was misreading the put/call prices had me super confused
6. now back to our original programming
7. nothing has changed, still waiting until what looks like 8:30-10:00 PM TO SHORT AGAIN.
Comment: 8.04 PM SHORT AGAIN FROM 1853, MAX SHORT BUT STOP IS 1856.
Comment: 9:26 PM 1853 STILL, MOVE STOP TO 1845.5

1. I don't like shifting waves
2. it's supposed to get crushed right here, and sellers are no show
3. so it's a hard stop
Comment: 9:48 PM 1851.78

1. first, TYPO at 9.26 PM, should be 1854.5
2. now move to 1853.5
Comment: 6.50 am ET THURS, HARD STOP 1847.
Comment: 7:25 AM ET STOP 1845.5
Comment: 7:33 PM ET STOP 1844.4

1. this thing should have collapsed one 3 legit attempst now
2. and it keeps getting saved
3. and my stop just hit
Comment: 4. typo on (1.) ... on 3 legit attempts, not one
Comment: 7:44 AM REENTRY SHORT 1844 FLAT, STOP 1846

1. checked all the charts, 7 of 10 bearish AF
2. but i'm suspicious of a bull spike here
3. my techs outweigh my trader suspicion here
Comment: 7:50 AM CLOSE SHORT 1844.51
Comment: 1. suspicion outweigh techs
2. and techs look 6/10 bear
3. if bulls can hold sideways for 1 hour it should move up
4. if this thing clears 1856 today going up...
5. then this post is done, we are in sideways territory now
6. what has happened in last 4 days was:
a: bulls got rejected at the PERFECT bullish posture
b: bears about to get rejected at PERFECT bearish posture (this morning at 1841)
Comment: 8:02 PM THIS IDEA IS CLOSED 1846.11

1. I have some conviction we are in a sideways market for sometime now
2. this is bc we have back to back perfect posture rejection, it means the money on both sides are roughly even and will result in a zig zag for some time
3. bears have the edge still but not by a lot, their perfect opportunity is about about to close...
4. this type of market isn't my forte, so until there is another set up, I have nothing to write about until late August
Comment: 8:42 PM WHAT BEARS NEED IS ONE GIANT DROP

1. this setup still favor bears but unconvincingly
2. but they have to push past all the short term traders that's slowing the momentum of this drop
3. one giant push like 25 pt would do it
4. this would straighten out the short term curves bearishly
5. that's the only scenario worth waiting for (after the drop, not before bc it's not likely to happen by this point)
6. bears had 12 hours with the absolutely perfect setup to destroy sentiment but had no follow through
Comment: 9:04 AM TYPOS & last bear scenario

1. the last two notes (8:02, 8:42) should be AM, not PM
2. giant push down WOULD NOT DO IT either, it would be bought at 1800 or so
3. then we get into "2 leg" territory where it would take several weeks to setup
4. that's it for this one
Comment: 10:38 AM THURS 5/26

1. bulls had a nice move to 1853, but stalling
2. if bears push the other way hard, they have a shot at 1800 by end of day tomorrow
3. the swing momentum here should be hella strong
Comment: 11:12 1844, bears got all the momentum now

1. as stated, this move swings hard down
2. it has a shot at 1800-1810
3. but the setup for new lows is gone,
4. so expect that floor to reverse up again
Comment:
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