MQP PRESENTS - RUMORS OF A PIVOT PART 2
HEADER - Odds say this is NOT an actual pivot by the FED, but simply an acknowledgment that they've done some real work on inflation expectations.
SUMMARY - This is the most likely move FOR TODAY ONLY. There are many reasons why. I will detail some below.
DETAILS - We last left off on "TO SUM IT UP DRAFT 4". Links to all four drafts and the previous "RUMORS OF A PIVOT DRAFT 1" are below. In DRAFT 4, I had stated that "geometric symmetry cycles" showed a move to 1720. The breakdown of all my regression waves for the last 18 months at IRL 7/8 ratio is above. To save time, I didn't select the best possible match.
1) periods for the waves are: blue 14 (trading) days, red 28 days, dark grey 56 days, navy/purple 112 days, orange 224 days, and light grey 448 days
2) the first move (first box) to 1720 level is because of confluence of most bollingers under 80 days
3) the second move (second box) to 1800 level is the "MINIMUM VOLATILITY LIMIT" when EVERY SINGLE regression curve from (roughly) 168 trading days (or 8 months) to 378 days (18 months) ALL LINE UP LINE BY LINE
4) this also occurs when EVERY SINGLE regression curve from 1 day to 154 days (roughly 7 months) line up line by line
5) HOWEVER, the regressions from 154-168 days DO NOT LINE UP UNTIL 11/20 (where the orange ellipse shows the two orange lines crossing), maybe 11/15 but hard to see it earlier
6) this means that the complete regression spread from 1 day to 378 days DO NOT line up until THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER
7) when this occurs, price will hit the "MAXIMUM VOLATILITY LIMIT", the low end is 1875, the high end is 1960, let's ballpark it at 1920
8) so the call here is 1920 by THANKSGIVING OR EARLIER
9) the two lighter highlights in blue and orange below are the from DRAFT 4
10) goodluck trading
SUMMARY - This is the most likely move FOR TODAY ONLY. There are many reasons why. I will detail some below.
DETAILS - We last left off on "TO SUM IT UP DRAFT 4". Links to all four drafts and the previous "RUMORS OF A PIVOT DRAFT 1" are below. In DRAFT 4, I had stated that "geometric symmetry cycles" showed a move to 1720. The breakdown of all my regression waves for the last 18 months at IRL 7/8 ratio is above. To save time, I didn't select the best possible match.
1) periods for the waves are: blue 14 (trading) days, red 28 days, dark grey 56 days, navy/purple 112 days, orange 224 days, and light grey 448 days
2) the first move (first box) to 1720 level is because of confluence of most bollingers under 80 days
3) the second move (second box) to 1800 level is the "MINIMUM VOLATILITY LIMIT" when EVERY SINGLE regression curve from (roughly) 168 trading days (or 8 months) to 378 days (18 months) ALL LINE UP LINE BY LINE
4) this also occurs when EVERY SINGLE regression curve from 1 day to 154 days (roughly 7 months) line up line by line
5) HOWEVER, the regressions from 154-168 days DO NOT LINE UP UNTIL 11/20 (where the orange ellipse shows the two orange lines crossing), maybe 11/15 but hard to see it earlier
6) this means that the complete regression spread from 1 day to 378 days DO NOT line up until THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER
7) when this occurs, price will hit the "MAXIMUM VOLATILITY LIMIT", the low end is 1875, the high end is 1960, let's ballpark it at 1920
8) so the call here is 1920 by THANKSGIVING OR EARLIER
9) the two lighter highlights in blue and orange below are the from DRAFT 4
10) goodluck trading
Comment:
NOTES 3) I ran out of time, but the reason this is only good FOR TODAY ONLY Is because THE MOVE TO 1720 MUST HAPPEN TODAY.
NOTES 4) if it swings down today, then a modified orange path in DRAFT 4 becomes the immediate favorite
NOTES 5) The smart move is still the straddle before FOMC at 1PM ET.
NOTES 4) if it swings down today, then a modified orange path in DRAFT 4 becomes the immediate favorite
NOTES 5) The smart move is still the straddle before FOMC at 1PM ET.
Comment:
NOTES 6) Of course, of if 1720 happens today, then 1920 becomes a strong favorite.
NOTES 7) The smart move after FOMC is go long after price breaks 1670 with 1645 stop.
NOTES 7) The smart move after FOMC is go long after price breaks 1670 with 1645 stop.
Comment:
NOTES 8) The reason why this is a strong favorite for today is that ALL 7 OF MY REGRESSION WAVE SETS say this should happen. This can change quickly, but that is where everything stands at 7:30 AM ET.
Comment:
NOTES 9) GETTING WAYYYY AHEAD OF OURSELVES:
Comment:
NOTES 10) Above chart is what would happen in theory after 1920 gets hit.
NOTES 11) zig zag for about 60 trading days (3 months), and then it would be 40 trading days (2 months) to finish the "C OF C " in elliot wave count, if you are into that sort of thing.
NOTES 11) zig zag for about 60 trading days (3 months), and then it would be 40 trading days (2 months) to finish the "C OF C " in elliot wave count, if you are into that sort of thing.
Comment:
NOTES 12) LAST NOTE 4 HOURS AHEAD OF FOMC. I don't think 1900 gets hit in November, maybe December.
Comment:
10:00 Friday 11/04:
Comment:
For chart above:
1) there is still one more bear route if we get to 1720
2) we will cross that bridge if we need to next week
3) otherwise, a 1700 close is superbullish here
1) there is still one more bear route if we get to 1720
2) we will cross that bridge if we need to next week
3) otherwise, a 1700 close is superbullish here
Comment:
LAST NOTES FOR FRIDAY ON RECONCILIATION:
1. I have trouble reconciling the short term curves
2. this is because of price action since FOMC (see notes in DRAFT 5)
3. because of the visit to 1615 yesterday, odds favor 1660 again after 1720
4. which is where the new bearish route come into play
5. this will get resolved next week
6. I stated in DRAFT 5 that we needed more sideways action before spiking
7. I meant that was needed to change back to LONG TERM BULLTHESIS
8. meaning that even if we hit 1960 in November, this would still fit LONG TERM BEAR THESIS price action
1. I have trouble reconciling the short term curves
2. this is because of price action since FOMC (see notes in DRAFT 5)
3. because of the visit to 1615 yesterday, odds favor 1660 again after 1720
4. which is where the new bearish route come into play
5. this will get resolved next week
6. I stated in DRAFT 5 that we needed more sideways action before spiking
7. I meant that was needed to change back to LONG TERM BULLTHESIS
8. meaning that even if we hit 1960 in November, this would still fit LONG TERM BEAR THESIS price action
Comment:
9. finally, if you are long the 1670 break, put stop at 1649
Comment:
6:49 PM SAT 11/05: THIS IS A VERY ROUGH VERSION OF WHAT I SEE NOW:
Comment:
SO FOR CHART ABOVE:
1) there are not GIANT difference in price action vs current expectations until MARCH 20, 2023
2) 1615 MUST HOLD IN APRIL 2023
3) then we are looking at the revival of gold bull thesis
4) we are quite a long ways from this
5) the first issue is getting to 1720, then 1800, 1875, then 1920
6) the CRUX OF THIS ISSUE IS WHAT DOES FEB TO APRIL PRICE ACTION LOOK LIKE
7) more when I know more
1) there are not GIANT difference in price action vs current expectations until MARCH 20, 2023
2) 1615 MUST HOLD IN APRIL 2023
3) then we are looking at the revival of gold bull thesis
4) we are quite a long ways from this
5) the first issue is getting to 1720, then 1800, 1875, then 1920
6) the CRUX OF THIS ISSUE IS WHAT DOES FEB TO APRIL PRICE ACTION LOOK LIKE
7) more when I know more
Comment:
8) the main reason for this are silver majors like AG, or FIRST MAKESTIC
9) but not necessarily PAAS
9) but not necessarily PAAS
Comment:
SUNDAY 11/06 8:13 AM, This is a refined version of the work posted from my phone yesterday:
Comment:
SUNDAY 11:06 8:24 AM: Here's that rectangle zoomed in:
Comment:
FOR CHART ABOVE:
1) Bears want blue/purple route.
2) Bulls want orange route.
3) Why the change of thesis?
4) Honestly, after 7 years of trial and error, my working theory is a derivative of population pyramid of the U.S.
5) So strong population means strong dollar means weak gold.
6) I chose this because it's what has worked for the last hundred years without depending on opinions of experts that has led me astray in the past.
7) This would mean that we should expect gold bear market to 2029-2030.
8) This also means that we have to "trust" projections of population to be true.
9) What I also know is that silver, especially strong majors like AG should lead final leg of precious metal bull market.
10) So?
11) By the close of market on 11/04, 2 days ago, gold is up 4% from 52-week low.
12) Silver is up 18-19%.
13) First Majestic Silver (AG), considered by far the strongest positioned silver major in the global precious market, is up 42% from its low.
14) My thoughts are that with silver, I have proof.
15) But with population projections, I do not.
16) Experience has taught me to trust, first, what I know is true.
17) Going with that, the chart posted at 8:13 AM is the most likely route new ALL TIME HIGH for gold, in late 2023 or early 2024.
18) Derivatives expectations are 3600 for Ocober 2025.
1) Bears want blue/purple route.
2) Bulls want orange route.
3) Why the change of thesis?
4) Honestly, after 7 years of trial and error, my working theory is a derivative of population pyramid of the U.S.
5) So strong population means strong dollar means weak gold.
6) I chose this because it's what has worked for the last hundred years without depending on opinions of experts that has led me astray in the past.
7) This would mean that we should expect gold bear market to 2029-2030.
8) This also means that we have to "trust" projections of population to be true.
9) What I also know is that silver, especially strong majors like AG should lead final leg of precious metal bull market.
10) So?
11) By the close of market on 11/04, 2 days ago, gold is up 4% from 52-week low.
12) Silver is up 18-19%.
13) First Majestic Silver (AG), considered by far the strongest positioned silver major in the global precious market, is up 42% from its low.
14) My thoughts are that with silver, I have proof.
15) But with population projections, I do not.
16) Experience has taught me to trust, first, what I know is true.
17) Going with that, the chart posted at 8:13 AM is the most likely route new ALL TIME HIGH for gold, in late 2023 or early 2024.
18) Derivatives expectations are 3600 for Ocober 2025.
Comment:
19) From a regression point of view, when should we know?
20) Strong forecasts shoudl come July/August.
21) Until then we should expect a super-sized, GIANT, flag pattern to fall 2023.
20) Strong forecasts shoudl come July/August.
21) Until then we should expect a super-sized, GIANT, flag pattern to fall 2023.
Comment:
FINALLY, I AM NOW ON RUMORS PART 3, PLEASE GO HERE:
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NOTES 2) That move is unknowable until half it of it is over.