obviously its risky to try to put EW on something like the US10Y yield with so many issues in the world right now but i couldnt help notice how clean the count looks at the moment.
NOT trading advice.
It's not been a year to bottom pick TLT. In fact, it's rarely a good idea to bottom pick. However, when a durable S/R Level holds and ideally is re-tested, it creates a situation where buying a low makes sense. And with ones stops very clear, i.e. below 92.30 (GREEN), it's an asymmetric pay-off.
A similar level is seen in 10-Year Notes.
Good day everyone! Don't forget to put your thumbs up and write your comment if you like the idea
The bar for 10-year Treasuries has been broken.
The 10-year Treasury yield has broken the trend at 3.8%. In fact, this opens the way for growth to indicators in the range of 4.5-4.6%.
There are elections in November, and we need to show at least some effect from...
Possible analogue from the lead up to the last financial crisis. Potential catalysts still taking shape. Continued central bank NIRP would support this scenario.
Keeping an eye on the relationship between the Gold Futures and the US 10 Year Yields.
Currently, the yields are coming off their highs, but the Gold hasn't reacted yet. If we get a breakdown in the US dollar, that will be the catalyst I am sure and currently, the US dollar index is finding resistance from old support.
Jobs data was good today, but there is a...
This looks like a
retest of the
1.32-1.5 bottom
range we saw from
2012-2016
usual we test a old low as a new high.
I am not saying we cant go higher we can but we could also go sideways for years
but
I hope we head back down to new lowers lows, why would i hope for such a bad thing?
I have my reasons.
Not financial advice.
This is my personal trading...
RSI overbought
and I think 10 year bond is in a cup and handle formation.
I see a crash or big correction in 6-10 months in the stock market.
Conclusion is that short on bond and still bullish in the stock market and I think we will push back to higher level in short time in stock market.
a large breakout of the VWAP indicator with a strong green candle and a wicked low plus the breakout of the trading range with a large candle that is higher than the other candles this means that the buyers have entered this market and the start bullish trend.
signal buy .
If SPX crashes to 100-Year-Bottom channel, it would probably rebound to the current channel.
Bullish case would be to rise up to the 10-year trend line.
Mild bear of another 15% drop would still result in SPX in current channel.
10 Year US Notes are falling quite sharply away from red wave (2) correction, which can mean that temporary bulls are over and that downtrend is continuing. We see more weakness in view.
On the 10 Year US Notes we see price undergoing a potential five wave drop, with price now trading in wave four as part of this drop. That said, price seems to be undergoing some slow and choppy price activity, which means wave four may unfold as more complex. As such we expect more overlapping price movement to come in play and probably a triangle correction will unfold.
The 10-year yield is sensitive to falling inflation. The 10 Year yield curve (2.22%) normally starts to rise at the start of a Fed tightening cycle as bond yields start to rise. Historically, the Fed has started raising rates to combat rising inflation. That isn't the case right now with the CRB Commodity Index trading at the lowest level in 14 years (ETF DB CRB...
The US dollar index was a thing of bubbly-beauty, gaining over 25 percent in a year. Traders thought that after seven years, it is now time for the Federal Reserve to raise rates. Unfortunately, reality is set it.
The Fed has always claimed to be data-dependent. First, the potential for a rate hike was when unemployment dropped to 6.5 percent. That came and went...
The yield on the US TNote 10-Year remains in a long term downtrend channel, looking to complete it's down wave (3) of V towards 0.70%. A break above 2.20% would invalidate this trade and a break above 3.04% would invalidate the whole bearish pattern.
