Ladies and Gentlemen, please take your seats. (...the music stops) Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you! The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily. It most likely will be a depression via stagflation...
Hello traders! Today we want to share an intraday update for USDJPY pair in which we see nice and clean bullish impulse in progress, ideally back to highs for wave 5 that can retest the highs and 125 - 126 area. The main reason why USDJPY may stay up is still an unfinished five-wave decline on 10Y US Treasury Notes. As you can see, there's a negative...
BTCUSD / US Bonds are Inversely Correlated Since March 7, 2022 the bond market has been in a freefall, spiking rates, as you can see with the 10 Year Treasury Bitcoin has been on a rally that started on March 7 with a major spike then pullback the following day, only to take off like a freight train. This a clear inverse correlation that has set in and does...
ZN 10 YEAR T-NOTE FUTURES short days big volume + big wick
GOOD MORNING, after the last short trading range, that seems like a semi diamond finally we are over the VWAP and we have a big strength of buyers right now although the candle is red they are here so the chance of an uptrend in the next 30 min nearly 75% due to big volume and the safety we have from the VWAP. contact me if you want me for any analysis check my...
Quick Analysis on 10 Year Treasury Yield on a 1D Linear Chart. 1) The US 10 Year Treasury Yield has been respecting a falling channel for multiple decades going back to the 1980s. 2) It has broken out of the top trendline of the falling channel with a recent re-test of the S/R line. 3) The measured move of the falling channel would bring it back to Pre-2008...
All eyes turn back to inflation and rates as the economy is creating jobs. Scouting the reopening trade for Q2.
An echo of the Monthly Broadening Wedge, the 4-hour broke bull on the surprise Jobs Report.
continues to trade within the broadening pattern. The growth bounce stalled, and the bond continues to hold in EQ
the H&S broke for the confirmation, but only to the first maker at the .214. A Diamond Continuation has fueled the yield to back above 1.80
Volatility is the name of the game as the major indexes were in a big range all week. The Nasdaq is testing it's 2 hour UBB with a Bull Flag under resistance. The Russell 2000 also has a Bull Flag after finding 2hr LBB support, setting up a potential Lower High under the 2h 50 SMA. The Bonds gave back the bull break during the FOMC meeting and are now showing a...
This thing is way ahead of where quarterly money flows suggest it should be - I think it will pull back and consolidate 1.10 - 1.150 range. Also looks to be exhibiting the same post-crisis recovery that it followed after the GFC. I'm pretty sure all of these anti-fed pumpers were out there barking about it back then as well. Also, Bitcoin (all cryptos) still...
Yhe 10Y Note Yield Gained 4.8% on Friday, topping out at 1.79%. The echoes from the pundits are calling for a return to value as high beta-growth has seen continued pressure, with ARKK leading the declines. NQ1! defended it's 4h Higher low on Friday with a hammer but remains in a 4h Real-Body Bear-Flag. In contrast RTY1! (Russell 2000) and YM1! (Dow Jones...
Data for Kissing/Crossing 200Weekly MA: 2017-2019? One year nothing then 11%/20% 2015-2016 : 14% 2015-9 months sideways then 12% 2015 xxxx nothing 2013-2014 Long bull move. 9% pullback. 2011- 8% 2011- 7% 2010- 17% 2005-2007 : xxx long Bull move the crash 05-6% 05- 7% 04- 8% 1999-13%/10%/13% then crash 1997- 10% the bull move. 1996-8% Choppy Market then bull...
It is often said by Quantity Theorists echoing, Milton Friedman - "Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Conditions... matter, they change as does the "moneyness of money" - but you can't keep the Chicago School of Economic mind poisoning down. That could be why I didn't play with academia, it is a toxic sandbox wed to a beach at times....
A Market Metaverse - Vix remains above 20 with NQ1! finding resistance at the 16400-16450 zone for the 13th time on the 2h since November 23rd. The Fixed Range Volume Profile (11/23 - 12/16) - Point of Control (POC) is 16286, 2.54% above the current price. The 10Y bond back-tested, bear, the 1.43 support break.
Back-testing the break .214. The S&P 500 has formed a 2 hour Bull Flag. The Russell 2000 is supported by the 2 hour 8 EMA
Watching for a back-test of the neckline. NQ1! with support below at the 2 hour MBB.