We made good money shorting NASDAQ:TLT into the summer down to the initial target I had of $88. Then we flipped long again and I exited my longs earlier this month on Dec 7th. Now, as you can see from the first chart , we've come up against resistance and I think it's time to flip short again to retest the lows. How low we go is TBD, but I think this move...
Macro Monday 30 U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows In essence the U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows (US TIC Flows) refer to the movement of funds into or out of the United States through the purchase or sale of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign investors and governments. These flows of capital are an essential component of the overall...
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10yr bond yields finding bullish reversal off lower range of descending parallel channel (white) - further momentum pending upcoming 10yr auction + US economic data. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish reaction to macro economic news = continued momentum to break above descending trend-line (white dashed) towards 38.2%...
TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis. Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches. Notes: Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio. Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation). Correlation...
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis for last week of November. TBC further details/write-up via ideas section, cheers.
TVC:US10Y intraday mapping/analysis. US yields dip while bonds & stocks rip. US10Y in clear downtrend with potential bearish H&S pattern developing, TBC. H&S development would correlate with bonds/stocks pullback before further bullish momentum into EOY. Left shoulder, head & neckline outlined. Right shoulder parameters: Rally above ascending 1st...
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis. US10Y getting dumped off combination FOMC decision, US economic data + US Treasuries update triggering institutional short covering. Bond & equities market squeezed higher, in-line with seasonality. Possible bearish H&S in development on lower timeframe, pending pattern confirmation.
Price has been repeatedly turned away from the same level, and here's the exciting part – the more rejections, the weaker the resistance becomes. 🚀 It looks like a breakout might be in the cards this time! My medium-term target is set at $6, and I'm eager to see if this price action supports that goal. 📈 But remember, this isn't financial advice – just my...
1. Technical Analysis 📈 IN bull-trend 2. Entry and Exit Timing ⏱ Entry in 3.127$ 3. Risk Management 🚧 3% capital 4. Trade (Buy/Sell) 📊 buy 5. Stop Loss 🛡 $2.53 6. Take Profit 🎯 $5.6 👨🎓 Experience and Education: Our trading team has five years of experience in financial markets, especially cryptocurrencies.
Looking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows. It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A...
MACRO MONDAY 12 A Positive MOVE Index - TVC:MOVE The U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index – the “MOVE” is similar to the VIX volatility index that lets us know when volatility/uncertainty is high or low in the stock market by monitoring options contracts. Instead the MOVE measures how much investors expect bonds prices to fluctuate in the future....
The DXY after catching a rally off a 4-Hour Bullish Butterfly, has reached my price target of $103, and if it gets above that zone, then I think the DXY will have plenty of room to make multi-decade highs due to The High Interest Rates, Tightening Credit Conditions, and The Deflation that is now being priced into the US Bond Market. If things go as expected...
This is the differential of 10yr vs 1yr US bond which represents long term against short term yield on sovereign debt, and those you don't know, short term bonds are used by central banks to control interest rates(amazing uh? the FED does not actually print money) therefore they do use bonds as a tool to control interest rates which then controls the S&D of...
Hello Traders, There is a big potential bearish opportunity in the ZB market! The 15-minute time frame just showed a break in a key support level, indicating a potential downtrend. With this technical signal, combined with current market conditions, it's possible that we may see a further decline in the ZB price. Keep an eye on this market and follow me for more...
Recently the market's expectation for the Fed Funds Rate peaking around 5% and then coming down at the end of Q4 2023 changed, with the market now seeing rates going to 5.5%. Many investors/analysts are discussing bond yields heading to 6% and staying higher for longer. However, is that going to happen? What is sentiment telling us right now? What is data...
What is moving this week? Our weekly eyeball into the different markets. Interest rates likely to be breaking its all time high again, get ready for another volatile month ahead. Difference between yield and interest rate: Borrowers take reference from interest rates and lenders take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Minimum...
To all the perma bulls out there, look at bonds, there won't be any pivot till higher interest rates at or above 6%. Bonds risk-off is the most important out there, as the bond market is much bigger than the stock/indexes market. Something will have to give, either bonds or the markets...
The US10Y is forming an interesting pattern that suggests a move higher is likely. I decided to compare the general trend movement to that of SPX. The green arrows represent my future base case. However, should the US10Y break to the upside of its current pattern now, the blue arrows represent that. The future picture is always fuzzy, but I’m estimating US10Y is...