we probably have a small push here off the bullish hammer reversal then a dip to 1.08% which will cause another drop to stock markets but this level should prove as strong support & then the 10 yr will move higher IMO
In this chart, I find it important to (as an economist) monitor treasuries and bonds, luckily Tradingview has us covered there. The next few charts will be some economic correlations so we can better understand the economy before I get into the meat and potatoes of this system . As you can see, bonds and treasuries are dropping which indicates selling. Big name...
Looks like the craze over high interest rates is coming to a congestion zone. If you go back to 2019, there were hella buyers at $135. I think we are getting to the point where such high interest rates, while the stock market is still skyrocketing, and yet the global economy has not recovered; or said better, investors are in denial. When interest rates are low,...
I've set out what I see as the major topic of conversation / concern thats in financial markets currently as we approach the key resistance level of 1.5% in US 10Y Yields.
This time is AMEX:SPY / AMEX:UST which compares the U.S. stock market with the U.S. bond market. So, right now is heading to test a very strong resistance in 5.20 points, while for the last few weeks is been divergent from its RSI, all "selling signals". Normally when this quotient gives this signals is because the stock market is losing strength and a...
Bonds climbing the stairway up on H4. See you at 1% soon.
Looks like bond yields have gone risk on but the stock market hasn't caught onto this quiet yet. Heavy resistance incoming, break .79 and the bulls will party
The cross is using the 20 and 50 exponential moving average . Every time the shorter exponential moving average crosses the longer one, this indicates a bearish signal. You can see the times this has worked in the past, in the same chart.
Guys just so you r all aware. There will be no bear market, they have been canceled indefinitely. Every-time any of you think about getting into bunker and hoarding food, gold bars or paying Peter Schiff Harry Dent or any of the fear mongers just look at my chart. In fact burn it into your brains. Stock always go up. Just buy buy buy. So easy
The S&P to Gold Ratio has effectively traded sideways for the last few years. The ratio has now broken out to the downside. I would say that a 30-80% correction in the stock markets remains a threat despite Fed rescue efforts. I believe over the next several years that gold will outperform the s&p500. Contrary to popular belief, US stocks have not greatly...
With equities looking increasingly volatility and valuations as frothy as ever, long term bonds have been quietly outperforming recently. I expect this trend to continue for foreseeable future and for us to rise 5-13% from here conservatively. The global climate is shifting to reducing risk and buying safe haven assets. Therefore, 20 year bonds will likely...
With the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps to 50bps rate cut, longing 20 year bonds seems like one of the highest confidence trades in the market. I am bullish on 20 year bonds specifically, and will continue to be until we see a rate hike which I believe is far, far away. We are likely heading into a global recession within the next 12-18 months, so I...
With inflation rearing its head of late, and sectors of the economy prone to deteriorate due to coronavirus, narrow junk bond spreads will likely widen - pushing down the prices of high yield bonds.
Safety in the bond market is at the very short end (as short rates rise, can reinvest at higher rates) and the very long end (rates should decline as economic news deteriorates due to stalled Chinese economy). Most risk is in the 10 year range.
The play for OTM calls on TLT right now is a good risk to reward for myself given the numerous positive potential outcomes. If they don't cut rates, I expect TLT to make a very nice upward move due to bond prices going up and maturity going down. If they cut rates, I still expect bond maturities to go down and for TLT to go up. With the current landscape I am...
It is always important to keep one’s mind open and to consider all possibilities. At this point I am expecting a pullback correction in Gold, between $1416 and $1434. If this pullback comes, this will be an opportunity to accumulate undervalued junior miners who will play “catch-up” to the large cap miners. Additionally, with the gold-silver ratio finally...
ZN1! : Series on Bonds - Sept 20th 2019(4-5 minute read) This is a two part analysis on the US 10 year Treasury note , the second part analyses the yield. In my opinion, technical analysis is somewhat (okay-ish) effective in analysing bond price action, especially to bonds with longer maturities. This is because they are priced in terms of private...