The Bond Yield Curve, which can be calculated by substracting the US 2 Year bond yield from the US 10 Year bond yield, has been inversed for quite some time. An inversion of the bond yield basically means that bond traders require higher returns on short-term bonds than on long-term bonds, which translates to short-term bonds being more risky than long-term ones....
The Fed Hawkish Stance During Wednesday's address, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reinforced his stance on tackling inflation with a more cautious approach. He emphasized that the central bank is not yet finished with its efforts to curb inflation and hinted at the possibility of implementing multiple interest rate increases during future monetary policy...
Historically, the YELLOW support area NEVER holds when TVC:DXY is on its way back down. HOWEVER, the US #Dollar is showing strength. (this is vs a basket of currencies that are also weak.) 1st time it bounced back this hard. This looks like it wants to keep going, longer term. We'll see. This is NOT good for #stocks (longer term). TVC:TNX has been trading closely.
Good Morning! Historically, Since 1967, #interestrates have been MUCH higher, around 2008 they began to go lower. Most individuals never mention this. So what's the BIG DEAL?! The US was growing FASTER & the DEBT is now ASTRONOMICAL! Costs a TON in payments alone! SOMETHING has to give, SOON. Daily we could be setting up for some relief. TVC:TNX
Gold has found few friends of late as both US nominal and real Treasury yields rocket higher, and the USD has been on a one-way bull trend. If funds want to play defence in the portfolio, they increase their USD exposures, given the strong inverse correlation vs. the S&P500 and NAS100. Funds can also get a 5.58% yield holding risk-free US 6-month T-Bills and when...
Keeping an eye on TLT here - some decent volume coming in with exhaustive demark 13 signal. Let's see if it manages to put some sort of temporary bottom in here
This is called the "Steepener" trade and refers to a mean reversion in the yield curve. From current level of (-38 basis points, or -0.38%), I'm targeting a move back to 1.00%, or ~70bp, risking down to about (-45bp), or about (-13bp) downside. Yield curve steepeners seek to gain from a greater spread between short- and long-term yields-to-maturity by combining...
Hey everyone 👋 Guess what? This post was created by two TradingView users! @SquishTrade and I collaborated on this post. We wanted to share our thoughts about the MOVE/VIX ratio, which has been exploding recently, and which may be presenting a warning about the future movement of the S&P 500 ( SPX ). Before we begin, here's a bit more about the MOVE index:...
The TNote (US 10 year yield) has entered its target area for this up movement from the bottom. Resistance area is between 4.65% to 5%. We are expecting a pullback below 4% for the next months. Then the uptrend should resume towards 7%, possibly higher. A break above 5% would invalidate this view.
Across the board 10 year bonds look scary. The italy 10 yr is so clear i figured id publish it. Same with Cadanian 10 yr, US 10 yr. Central banks must be shitting themselves. It'll be an interesting next week or 2.
If NASDAQ:TLT manages to break below $100 here, it's next and final target would be $88 before upside. I think if this happens, risk assets will take a nose dive lower (just like they did last year).
Hello There! Welcome to my newest analysis of SILVER from several timeframe perspectives. The recent determinations within the SILVER price are so severe that I saw no other approach besides deeply analyzing the current bearish indication within my analytics backend and approaching the most acute indications here. Especially, as SILVER is emerging with these...
NASDAQ:TLT chart mapping/analysis for med-long term swing trade strategies.
G-Morning! Shorter term yields haven't moved much as of late. Demand has slowed down & this coincides with the expectation that the #fed will be cutting rates soon. The 2Yr #yield recently caught up with the strength of the shorter term #InterestRates & looks to be settling in the area just like the others. On the other end the 10 Yr #yield has been...
Yields Surging on the long end. Hitting resistance. Will this level hold and give the equity markets a breather to bounce? If this continues to surge you will see a massive selloff in equities at some point as the bond market is pricing in entrenched inflation.
Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about SILVER FUTURES on several timeframe perspectives. The SILVER FUTURES recently showed up with important pullbacks which moved on to test further remaining levels within the whole structure. From a market perspective the bonds market recently showed massive strength with T-bills emerging to form several higher highs...
Looking at the Monthly Chart of the TLT 20yr bond etf. I see a large ABCD Pattern Set up. The Initial Triangle has not completed. Currently there is heavy selling in Bonds (C leg sell off to D leg of the bullish cypher) The Trend Line was breached, and now the sell off is acting like a Magnet to retest 2008 lows. It's worth noting this sell off appears to be A...
Going 2b away today meeting with partners. This post might just be the only one today TVC:DXY This is a pretty strong trend. TVC:TNX That last move was stronger than previous, look at the RSI. 10Yr #yield. TVC:VIX This move was also with more strength than previous moves. Conclusion: Our call to end BULL run was spot on. Should've went BEAR, it's...