This trend line in $TLT has held 4 times since late-'18, the last time crossing at horizontal support. RSI remains positive with a breakout & retest. This is one possible wave count, but rising support is key here.
TLT is a 20+ year bond ETF that made strong highs throughout the rate-cutting cycle and rightfully so. The inversion of bonds vs the equity market has caused bond yields to drop and because of that since the price of bonds is directly inversely correlated to their yields, prices in TLT and other bonds have been increasing. The low rates have come to a halt as the...
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Are we going to see the 10 - year yield getting out of the downtrend or ready to move lower? As yields in bonds is getting better, gold starts to lag nicely as it is being dumped pretty fast. Stocks are getting FOMOed aggressively, but yields are starting to rise again. Reaching that critiral point to answer our question will define if the stock's rally is near...
The German Dax had a breakout (not into all time new highs) but a breakout of a resistance level. However, we have failed to continue the momentum, and we are getting signs that this is losing steam. We have created a range/ triple top pattern after multiple higher lows and higher highs. It seems that the uptrend is about to reverse. Await for the break and...
Looking at the listless range in Bitcoin, we are beginning to think Bitcoin (BTC) is going to need some help to get going again. We saw a tweet yesterday suggesting that every time the Fed lowers interest rates, they are effectively trying to devalue the Dollar. According to the person that wrote the tweet, each drop in interest rates is an advertisement for...
Nice volatility and breakout showing in bottom of the range in US10Y. Take a fast look at Monthly chart: It obviously we have a support here, and we are going to reverse to 2.12 and probably to 2.55
LQD just bucked a very important trend line. If investors have indeed lost confidence in corporate debt and we see follow through, then I see this as a bearish signal for stocks too. Typically the bond market is known to be correct over the equity market as large institutions with more knowledge than retail traders deal with bonds directly. To see corporate bonds...
If you follow my work, you know how the Bond market is crucial to my analysis. It is the largest market in the world, and we are heading to a period where central banks really have no ammunition anymore and are using rhetoric to maintain confidence in the system. The history of humanity is cycles of hard money and soft money. It seems we are reaching the end of...
NAS100 has reached its peak bullish run. I look to short when bears take control of this market. Follow on Instagram @logic.worldwide
We just received the 25 basis points rate cut. The market had already priced it in. Powell just released the statement. It seems to be a dovish one . He will start his speech at 2:30pm, where the market will try to understand the possibility of a 4th rate cut in December. The CBOE Fed tool has the 4th cut in December at 26%. We should see the yield curve...
The play for OTM calls on TLT right now is a good risk to reward for myself given the numerous positive potential outcomes. If they don't cut rates, I expect TLT to make a very nice upward move due to bond prices going up and maturity going down. If they cut rates, I still expect bond maturities to go down and for TLT to go up. With the current landscape I am...
updating the previous chart to look at how this is behaving. Keeps retesting neckline, yet it keeps getting rejected. If broken, this will rally a bit, but I still expect this to head south significantly.
The squeeze in Treasuries is coming soon. Right now, it's just getting started and testing the break. The narrative of deflation has picked up steam strongly in the past 2 months with oil now clobbered, Powell going dovish (today), stocks down, and many many other reasons.
Hi guys, I will be presenting a trade idea that is of a much larger scale. This trade idea involves predicting the next recession - something that is at the back of almost every investor's minds. I will be proposing an open trade at 45.06, which is represented close to the fibonacci 0.786 level, a stop loss at the 51.94 level (which is close to the previous...
about time we get in at the second wave of larger wave 1 long on usdcad remember follow money management rules