treasury yields consolidating between the 786 & 618 of this most recent move inside of this A Sym Triangle. Which way will it break?
I think this is what we r working with here fam. DXY setting up for a black swan type move IMO
If this is the bottom of bond yields. (See Related Idea) If this is a 1-2 pattern. If this is an ending diagonal in the latter half of the correction. Then we are in for some turbulent times. They cannot keep these rates down much longer. This is a spring loaded knife ready to get violent. Won't be long before we see the end of this.
This looks like a possible bottom in the bond yields aka interest rates. Yet another ending diagonal. Waiting for a couple more confirmatory waves to form before I post an update.
Just doing a bit of analysis and you can all see what I think I've found, so this begs the question is the bottom in on stock market? And if yes the market has in fact bottomed WTF is going to happen in 2-3 years from now?
10 year looks ready to break up which could be signaling risk on will be back over the next 2-3 years Fam
10/2 year US bond yield ratio is once again approaching 1 and we have already had inversion between the 5/3 yield ratio. Is generally an early indicator of recession. S&P500 is once again showing volatility after a very extended bull run. Next major financial collapse is now simply a matter of time.
I honestly think this is a BTFD here fam the 10 yr looks primed to reverse. And this implies the stock market will boom long term heading into 2021-2024 when the yield finally tests the 200 ema and probably fails leading to another big crash. I think a Trump victory in 2020 all but solidifies this narrative that I am looking at here with the 10 yr
The FED has already cut the rates by 50 bps in an "emergency meeting" last week. The US02Y indicates that that was not enough and more cuts are needed. If history is any indication, we're looking at another cut of 50 bps or even 75 bps very soon .
With the markets pricing in a 95% chance of a 25bps to 50bps rate cut, longing 20 year bonds seems like one of the highest confidence trades in the market. I am bullish on 20 year bonds specifically, and will continue to be until we see a rate hike which I believe is far, far away. We are likely heading into a global recession within the next 12-18 months, so I...
With inflation rearing its head of late, and sectors of the economy prone to deteriorate due to coronavirus, narrow junk bond spreads will likely widen - pushing down the prices of high yield bonds.
The short end of the bond market and very long end are safest bets. But inflation pressure and slowing economy will cause the 10 year yields to rise and prices to fall.
Safety in the bond market is at the very short end (as short rates rise, can reinvest at higher rates) and the very long end (rates should decline as economic news deteriorates due to stalled Chinese economy). Most risk is in the 10 year range.
TLT is a 20+ year bond ETF that made strong highs throughout the rate-cutting cycle and rightfully so. The inversion of bonds vs the equity market has caused bond yields to drop and because of that since the price of bonds is directly inversely correlated to their yields, prices in TLT and other bonds have been increasing. The low rates have come to a halt as the...
Gold declined 0.63% against the USD and closed at $ 1459.26 per ounce on Friday, amid strength in the US dollar. In the Asian session, the pair XAU/USD is trading around $ 1465. Gold traders are going to continue to follow the movement in US Treasury yields and the direction of the U.S. Dollar this week. Of particular interest will be the 10-year U.S. Treasury...
The play for OTM calls on TLT right now is a good risk to reward for myself given the numerous positive potential outcomes. If they don't cut rates, I expect TLT to make a very nice upward move due to bond prices going up and maturity going down. If they cut rates, I still expect bond maturities to go down and for TLT to go up. With the current landscape I am...