Along with energy, the financial sector is one of the few sectors currently at an attractive valuation. With a P/E of 13.3 and a price-to-book ratio of 1.4, banks are quite reasonably priced. The dividend yield of 1.8% is low compared to bonds or energy, however. What worries me about banks is that I think they have a lot of bad debt on the books that will never...
LQD just bucked a very important trend line. If investors have indeed lost confidence in corporate debt and we see follow through, then I see this as a bearish signal for stocks too. Typically the bond market is known to be correct over the equity market as large institutions with more knowledge than retail traders deal with bonds directly. To see corporate bonds...
If you follow my work, you know how the Bond market is crucial to my analysis. It is the largest market in the world, and we are heading to a period where central banks really have no ammunition anymore and are using rhetoric to maintain confidence in the system. The history of humanity is cycles of hard money and soft money. It seems we are reaching the end of...
NASDAQ:NFLX remains a strong sell. NASDAQ:NFLX has completed a cycle wave with two massive extensions of over 700% of Wave 1. NASDAQ:NFLX should drop like a rock... *This is an update, please see related idea for further analysis...
AMEX:HYG remains a strong sell Will update. -AB
Not that anyone's watching today, but this a great chart to keep track of. Public debt as a % of GDP is now above 100%. With roughly $22.3 trillion in debt, on the eve of what seems to be pointing towards mild recession, when does this percentage see a reversal?
Fears once again loomed all over Argentina in a financial crisis rushing to the fore. And over the weekend, President Mauricio Macri had a stunning rout in the primary elections. At the same time, investors dropped its bonds, stocks, and currency en masse in a selloff. And it left Wall Street thinking that the crisis-prone country will have another default. In...
FED has begun a cycle of rate cuts although they don't want us catching that idea. Trump is downright determined to get the FFR back to 0% as quickly as possible, going so far as to demand the FED to cut rates 100bps at yesterday's meeting. Powell made clear that the FED doesn't want to turn this into a "trend of rate cuts" but that they would take appropriate...
GFDEBTN Monthly FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT: TOTAL PUBLIC DEBT 8:00PM EST At current rate of acceleration, total Federal Government Public Debt will double by April 2023 (4.5 years from today) and then double again by October 2026, just 3.5 years later. By January 2028, total federal government debt will have doubled again in an even shorter time where it will hit a...
This parabola show exponential increasing US national debt, they cannot stop it.
This is just to track my purchase of AUD today. I expect it to appreciate vs the EUR and USD over the coming months; Australia is significantly exposed to commodity prices, which as showing signs of recovery, and Australia has government debt at lower levels than most of the rest of the OECD (I have seen % levels ranging fro 40.5 to 66% - depending on the source)...
Where to start? The loss of $900,000,000 a year? The loss per share of $9.02? A growing impatience and anger with Lyft drivers? I believe people must have thought that Lyft would pop at IPO but its been declining since going public. Except the same with Uber, as they lose almost double that of Lyft every year. Ride-sharing companies are not a sound investment and...
IVZ has low P/E, D/E, and P/B ratios, despite growing revenue and dividends. Therefore, my 5 year outlook is bullish. I suspect the best times to buy are around a low of $19.40 for a short turnaround, but the price may get as low as $18.58 in as little as 2-3 weeks if the impulse from Jan-Feb echos the latest high. Other possible low points for the suspected...
This chart depicts the gold price in dollar for the next decades. As a background it is highly recommended to view my idea here: This chart depicts the US gold reserves divided by the interest on debt. The interest on debt is calculated as a proxy by multiplying the 10 year interest rate with the total federal debt. Whether this is accurate or not is not so...
This chart depicts the US gold reserves divided by the interest on debt. The interest on debt is calculated as a proxy by multiplying the 10 year interest rate with the total federal debt. Whether this is accurate or not is not so important as we just want to compare this ratio with its historic values. It is important to note that official US gold reserves have...
"History doesn't always repeat, but it often rhymes."Ray Dalio often likes to talk about debt cycles. Specifically, he has referenced that our economic climate can be compared to 1937. Similarities: End of long-term debt cycle, interest rates approaching 0. Recent economic collapse (Great Depression of 1929-1932, Great Recession of 2008) Widening wealth...