I've been doing this analysis by hand since April 28, 2015 in a spreadsheet at Google.
4/28/2015 1:30 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18111 17960
4/29/2015 9:44 AM 40.00% 60.00% 18083 17975 PFE, MRK reported
4/29/2015 2:26 PM 46.70% 53.30% 18055 17975
4/30/2015 9:55 AM 46.70% 53.30% 17968 17970
4/30/2015 10:47 AM 43.30% 56.70% 17930 17977
4/30/2015 3:54...
Much a do was made about February's gains but it was less than 7%. A similar move was made in January of 2013 and an even bigger move was made in October of 2011. So here's some perspective on the monthly moves that were made in the DOW. Notice how the only 10%+ moves (Blue) were made going down.
RIG is coming of divergence that sent price breaking resistance with momentum confirming the move higher by also making higher highs. RIG has since pulled back to a .618 retracement. I am looking for price to move past its most recent leg higher and test the 127 projection of this leg. With stops placed below the most recent swing point low, this trade offers a...
Friends,
Recently, I put out a few lessons on basic and advanced technical analysis, using simply trendlines, patterns, and delving into more complex geometries from Elliott Wave, Bill Wolfe and Scott Carney's widely known patterns.
Today, I would like to present a variance of the Wolfe Waves pattern, which some of you know as my main work-horse geometry as a...
- Heavy volatility
- Shorts seem to have won short term
- Bulls need some (very) good news to keep on and this may happen when Mr. Draghi and the ECB makes the official QE announcement this month?
- The reaction from the markets could from my point of view actually be the opposite - that the market tumbles down despite the above mentioned QE
- Earnings season in...
Here is a long term view of a few ratios that may help to view current market valuations. I used the DJIA in order to get a longer time series. It’s not my preference as market capitalization is not accurately portrayed via the index but I still think these ratios have value.
So how is the current market valued? Bears can point to GDP to market capitalization...
Just an interesting study using arcs and Fib retracements. Using BRK for an overall proxy for our markets to gain insights as to if we may be nearing a generational top.
This chart suggests to me that we may be closer to some sort of top than we are to the beginning of a new secular bull market as some have suggested.
Looking at the tops of 2000, and 2007, it is interesting to see where we are 06. Nov 2014 in price and time related to these two former tops.
Calculating the time from the Sept. 2000 to the October 2007 top, and then extend the 85 bars from 2007 to November 2014. Markets can be due for longer correction. Adding the pitchfork shows the index streched on price....
This is a simple MACD analysis, to try an forecast a topping pattern before a crash, The safest and high probability trade for a short occurs when the MACD has a negative divergence highlighted in red circle and yellow divergence line. Since it has broken the uptrend support and it is coming back to test it close to the 0.236 fib retracement level. that would be...
Wolfe Wave - the Elliott Wave for lazy people. Sometimes an extremely effective tool. Around 16400 - we have strong support zone. If the defense will be successful - we go back to the north.
Distribution in progress.
www.investopedia.com
Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJY0) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The DJY0 index has reacted from KUMO towards to Kijun Sen(blue). Now the Index is under the Tenkan Sen(Green) and Kijun Sen(Blue) too.
So the first think in mind is the case of a further reaction above the Kijun Sen. MACD is bearish and RSI is looking...
No Pasaran! - i.e. "They shall not pass!!!!!!" The upper red line opens for the bulls way to the level 18,000. And then what? Another half year rally.
thepatternsite.com
en.wikipedia.org
We all know the market phases: accumulation, mark-up, distribution & mark-down. IMO we are in the distribution phase . It will take time. A diamonds are beautiful and unpredictable.
thepatternsite.com
www.investopedia.com
DOW has peaked out and the down move has started. Based on Elliott Wave Analysis the ending diagonal has completed 5 moves after which a big correction is expected, giving the confirmation is the Candle stick signal patterns a Bearish Shooting star as well as Evening Star. Expect market to correct till 15500 as 1st Target and then beyond. Looking at Fibonacci...
Betting against the USA can be bad for your portfolio longer term. Bias is a killer in all time frames. Many would be "smart guys" have debated the end of this mega trend based on their so called understanding of the US debt situation or other "urgent crisis" they are sure is going to bring about the end. All this while being too myopic to zoom out for real...
Coming after outside reversal, this months candle has to fight with 1,618 fib from important 2009 lows, right at the infamous trend line which connects the 2000 and 2007 highs. If daily or intraday print a rejection/reversal confirmed candle, it will be a good spot for a short.
Cheers,
Panos
