W.D Gann came right into the Gann date 10 yr cycle low . I will now look for a very choppy rally back up into 98.2 to 99.7 in the etf
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It looks like we are turning over. Coupled with gigantic short positioning of speculators on bonds (highest in history bsed on the COT Data), the chart indicates that yields will fall again. Why would they fall? Because of a flight to saftey and/or a recession. I am keeping it very simple, I just buy Bonds via ETF. I am long TLT, IEF and SHY. With that trade,...
Appears we are running out of risk appetite. Put also looks like we have built a very nice base for a significant move higher. Hopefully, that's a risk on move, not a risk-off move. Personally, I believe we have already corrected in each individual sector, it just didn't happen all at once like it normally does. According to this, risk aversion and sentiment...
Seems like bonds are about to rip higher for many weeks here...I'm long with an ETF position using some leverage to hedge my equities positions here. Seems like a good position to put on, can be done with $IEF or $ZN_F futures . Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
I think a lot of people are thinking that yields will head lower from here, just like they have previously, but I think that bonds will follow the trend that they did last year (which is down), rather than move higher going forward. If you look at the chart, we're in a bearish trend. We're currently below the key support of $101.58. What looks most likely to me...
The long interest rate play may have been one of the most productive plays of, oh, the last five years or so (maybe more) with shorts in (pick your poison) SHY (1-3 year maturity paper), IEF (7-10), TLT (20+), EMB (emerging market), HYG (junk) being the rage, particularly with the Fed giving the market a fairly good idea of the when. Unfortunately, the point at...
To begin, I am not a Seasoned Trader; I use this blog for: 1. Record keeping; & 2. Formalizing my thoughts a. If I can't explain simply here, I shldn't engage To begin, my Rules of Engagement ( RoE ) to identify an upside of +3 to 1 Risk to Reward ( “R/R” ); in this case it may yield a 3.1- 3.94 R/R. • Asset | IEF ( iShares 7-20 Year US Gov’t Bond ) • Type |...
This chart is an inverted chart of the IEF/LQD ratio with a SPX (SP500) overlay line chart Not Inverted . This shows the corrrelation to easing conditions and the S&P500. This is what the FOMC is failing at fighting. With QT and rate hikes, this has only had pullbacks. Jawboning too.
Order BUY IEF NASDAQ.NMS Stop 94.67 LMT 94.67 will be automatically canceled at 20230401 01:00:00 EST IEF daily hammer wave 3 of wave 1 uptrend ABC correction is complete at the bottom of mean reversal channel
TLT is staggeringly oversold, everyone and their dog is screaming about higher rates. Understandable, but how much is already priced in? Will the FED reverse course? Will and equity correction send $ back into bonds? Hard to predict the news, but this chart is a screaming buy to me (on a 2-3 month timeframe). We MAY have one more low to the 116~ area which would...
😲 2's 10's INVERSIO N😲 A journalist's favourite recession indicator, the “2’s 10’s curve” inverted earlier this month… As the story goes, 𝙩𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙖 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 within 12-24months 😲 👉 But this time… it’s different 😅 Here’s the chart -> (FRED-FRED:T10Y2Y) To clarify, I’m not saying there won’t be a recession, or NSDQ100 crash, in fact it’s a real...
IEF (7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF ) is hitting a monthly uptrend line which is very likely to cause a short term bounce. On almost all time frames, IEF looks oversold. We are long EIF. - HH
IEF on this ascending scallop has undergone many dumps along the scallops history This is just another one Added a falling wedge pattern for a little flare
Idea for IEF: - Short the downtrend, Head and Shoulders likely. - TP1: 108 - PT: 100 GLHF - DPT
Contrarian bet against the onslaught of bond bears. RH Technicals vs. WallStreet - Clean, MACD Bullish Divergence - Descending Triangle, Completed E-wave signals new trend. - 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement hit; Also referred to as the Golden Retracement . It is, after all, based on the Golden Ratio. - And potentially a False Breakdown, likely to mirror the False...
10-year Treasury futures took a good whack today but still remain in a bullish consolidation phase going back to March. I'd be very wary of selling into weakness here - the economy remains in deep, deep shit.