This chart illustrates the increasing importance of cheap money, which is being driven by buybacks. Once interest rates get to a certain point (via Eurodollar futures ) the S&P 500 falls apart. The point at which it falls apart seems to be dependent on a certain downward-sloping level. Historically, interest rates prairie dog above the meme line for a bit but...
High yield bonds (junk bonds) hit monthly resistance line. Fundamentally, the US corporate debt has almost doubled since 2008. Right now over 50% of them in the market are BBB, which is just a cut above junk. Further analysis: youtu.be/V7zEXiqiiqA
This long term weekly chart compares the relationship between: 1) economic fundamentals 2) fears of falling equity prices 3) expected default rates in credit markets The top half of the chart overlays the long term correlation between the VIX (in orange) to speculative corporate bond yields (blue). The bottom half of this chart shows the Fed's National...
JPYUSD broke out today with a huge 1% move to break out of a 4 year long wedge. This is a bit of a technical move, but it has loads of fundamental implications. Before I go into detail, note that before and during every major market breakdown, JPY spikes, at least in modern times. It has a reputation as a safety currency / safe haven due to this reputation....
The comparison shows a high correlation between junk bonds and equities. The last Friday’s rally sparked by NFP and the news related to AMZN moved the equities ahead of the junk bonds. What we need to see next week, whether the junk bonds are going to retest the broken trend line first or start a continuation to downside. It seems the AB-CD pattern is not...
junk bonds looking great.... $SHY $TLT
NOTE : The low risk trading area reamains higher in the context channel (the gray ribbon) but we're signaling overbought on the trendchannel... This may be a concern if the market reverses here... Cause reversing on trendchannel means there will pbly be a trend trade to come right after... Not the best case scenario for stock though if junks were about to break...
With but a few trading days left in 2018, it's time to consider taking tax losses in non-tax deferred accounts Personally, I flattened out of virtually everything on Friday, taking my lumps here particularly in my SPY, QQQ static, defined risk core positions in this fairly atypical year-end sell-off so that I can start off 2019 fairly clean, with smaller 2018...
Small caps are often used as a gauge for domestic growth because they are more sensitive to changes in economic conditions, such as input costs, wages, financial stress... Many were caught off guard by the equity rollover in early October, but few were paying attention to what was occurring. In late September, financial conditions began to tighten and credit...
JNK/SPY divergence indicates more pain for Bulls.
Not a bad one for the retirement account paying an almost 5% dividend. Potential buy here if can get above support.
With the increased volatility this year after such a long period without any significant declines has got some wondering if the market has peaked, or even about to crash. To get a better idea of what’s going on ‘under the hood’, we can study the high yield ‘junk credit’ market. High yield is also known as ‘junk credit’ for its higher risk of default and being...
The past 5 times JNK has dipped below its 200MA it has recovered. Also has support from trendline.
This is the main chart that I am watching at the moment. It has all the information on it that I need to see the markets direction. The main drivers on this chart are oil and JNK (junk bonds). As you can see stocks SPX have diverged to the upside while USD/JPY has diverged to the downside. I am watching in particular for the JNK support to break down with oil. It...
CNBC has loved to refer the recent pullback in the SPX as the "Dimon Bottom" because CEO Jamie Dimon purchased roughly $26 million worth of JPM shares. However, it's not looking for those wanting to hold to believe in the recovery dream. Whether investors want to believe it or not, the U.S. economic cycle is rolling over; and, considering the very high...
Junk bonds are typically just that - junk. But, the iShares High Yield Corporate has been one of those crowded trades that just do not die. After witnessing the immaculate short squeeze from 1,864, the SPX staged an impressive rebound. But as I mentioned earlier today (on my InvestFeed - link below), the SPY is looking weak, and the ADX, which measures trend...