The 1.5-year-old declining resistance line (magenta) has proven too strong for the 4 year rising support (blue) which was broken just last week due to the record drop in the US indices. The drop was due to a combination of a market that had been overzealous and priced to perfection in an increasingly deteriorating economic environment. The coronavirus certainly...
Lagarde’s surprisingly dovish presser from the U.S. session spooked EUR bulls and this anti-EUR sentiment carried over to the Asian session. The pair looks like it could retrace above the previous area of interest or around daily pivots R2 or 50% of Fibonacci retracement as because the short term moving average may suggest bullish trend but actually the long term...
Wednesday was remembered by the next highs in the US stock market. The madness continues, but characteristic is the reluctance of gold to decline against this background. It turns out that buying gold is currently practically risk-free: with an increase in demand for risky assets, it does not fall, but at the same time, any concerns of investors instantly provoke...
Markets remained somewhat muted at the start of the impeachment trial despite Trump’s talk at Davos as concerns around the deadly coronavirus mounted. It’s going to affect Asian economies for sure due to weakening consumer spending unless if it will be contained asap, and perhaps the emerging markets too. In Europe, German and UK macros were seen increasing risk...
The US and China signed a partial deal yesterday, putting a temporary stop to global uncertainty! Without that being the end of the trade war, at least we can now wait and see if China respects the signed terms over the next few months... Are emerging markets affected by the fresh rhetoric since China is supported, or should we just focus on monetary policy,...
Short Analysis on GDX/Gold in 3 bullet points; Series on Commodities and the 2020 outlook - 21st of December 19' Before I get into the analysis, wishing you all Happy holidays! Here's the simpler version of the chart: 1. Few key takeaways: Despite that the current resistance at ~31 is holding , the breakout in GDX is eminent . The question is of the timing ....
Equities keep climbing higher on the back of renewed trade and Brexit optimism and also on the back of monetary policy decisions! Interest rates are on hold, but the Fed did cut three times in 2019! Will the surge continue into 2020? And if yes, when can we expect the massive sell-off everyone’s been talking about to take place? ake a pick as we near the end of...
Analysis on Treasuries in 3 detailed bullet points ; Series on fixed income and the 2020 outlook - 21st of December 19' Before I get into the analysis, wishing you all Happy holidays! 1. What's the outlook for 2020? Compared to the summer of 2019, the recession fears have somewhat phased out. Nevertheless, weak global macros(PMI's, Growth) and the...
Trump was impeached yesterday and lost! But the trial timing remains in doubt, keeping parties on their toes! Meanwhile, BoJ kept interest rates unchanged overnight and now we have to wait and see if BoE adds to the downside risks on #no-deal fears, or encourage bulls with a rather hawkish stance? I talk about all that in today’s market insights while analysing...
On December 15, the United States will not increase tariffs on Chinese goods.The reason is that the negotiation process between the US and China continues. The news was supposed to provoke sales in safe-haven assets, but it did not happen. That only confirmed our recommendation to look for points for buying gold and the Japanese yen on the intraday...
The previous week, promised to be relatively calm, however, it turned out to be eventful. Gold and the Japanese yen were under downward pressure. The reason is the progress in negotiations between the US and China as well as the growth of positive market expectations regarding the end of trade wars in the foreseeable future. The main result of the week was the...
In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk about #fxminors #EURJPY and #GBPCHF as they both seem to be moving within an identical pattern. Despite the added uncertainty amid the latest delay drama of phase-1 of a potential trade deal between US and China, safe-havens #yen and #franc seemed unaffected by at least this type of flows. That suggests that...
In today’s #marketinsights video recording, I talk mainly about #RBA and why #Aussie in somewhat bid and I also touch #eurodollar. #AUDUSD, despite yesterday's slide and regardless of trade war narratives, was pushed higher earlier in the session on the back of RBA's hold. The pair was supported as the bank kept the inflation outlook unchanged and reiterated that...
Keeping it short but precise, few fundamental bullet points on factors that will affect gold until the end of 2019: 1. Once US/China deal gets finalized, Gold should have a bearish consolidation to 1410, eventually to 1360 by the start of 2020. 2. GOLD is currently in a horizontal range due to two factors: Global monetary policy dovishness continues for...
In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #GBPJPY and #EURGBP #FXMinors! GBPJPY Supported by: - Increasing expectations EC will grant January extension - BoJo win in case of early election - Weak safe-haven flows - Japan manufacturing to 3yr low EURGBP Under Pressure as: - Investors eye ECB and last Draghi meeting - Disappointing Business Climate...
With the Fed's quarter-percent rate cut, gold should move upward for the near future. The move likely won't last, because further rate cuts are not expected this year, but it should be good for a short-to-medium-term trade. To sustain its upward move, gold needs to get above the high-volume support node at $68. I will buy a bar close above this level. I've also...
Just for fun and something to watch. Recessions in Grey
In today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse DXY and SXP! Equities look bullish and the US index bearish, from a technical perspective. On the (geo)-political front their prices are and could remain being affected by: - A somewhat dovish?! Fed - BoE and Brexit (BoJo visits EU today for talks!) - SA attack and expectations on reduced oil production -...