But before we need to break the rectangle blue for an impulsion throught -0.2% then we can possible see a positive bund.
Sell bonds signal is very extended similar to Operation Twist era. I guess we are waiting for a catalyst to start the spike higher. Bonds are a long term sell here
Business cycle still points to more downside for steel prices and treasury yields
the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reduced the target range for the federal funds rate to a range of 1.50% to 1.75%. As in the previous decision, Esther George and Eric Rosengren dissented in favor of leaving the rate unchanged. In line with the September statement, today’s release characterized the labor market as strong and “that economic activity has been...
In the wake of the Great Financial Crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke introduced a number of unconventional policies, including Quantitative Easing, one of the most controversial programs in the history of central banking…but the more lasting and undeniably effective policy has been ushering in the era of “communication-as-a-policy-tool.” Over the past...
The market is applying the rule of thumb that inversions in the 2y10y curve are 12-24 month leading indicators of recession. This rule of thumb no longer applies in the global NIRP environment. 2008 saw fewer leading inversions than 2001. This time time there were none at all—the crash has already begun. SPY <150 in 2020.
Copper / gold ratio is in line with 10 year Treasury yields at the moment. So no actionable signal right now
A break below 156-ish is bearish in my opinion, and increases the likelihood that IWM will retest the bottom of its descending channel. In addition to that, the RSI is showing overbought conditions. If it breaks below the 156-ish level, I will short it via puts and look for a risk/reward somewhere in that area I noted. Fundamentally, it all hinges on the Fed...
I keep it until Thursday 12.09.2019.
As investors continue to feel nervous about the health of the global economy, the $US10Y-$US03MY curve continues to invert, with the spread plunging below its Monthly Support Level of -0.457 (blue) to reach -0.502, a level that has not been seen since March 2007. Investors should continue to remain cautious when it comes to their asset allocation, as dark clouds...
Yields on the US-10 Year Treasury continue to head lower, as they approach a multi-year support of 1.426% (blue), a level not seen since July 2016. "Risk Off" continues to be in play.
The FOCM will begin Wednesday evening to make the market and investors understand the next moves for the short and medium term and the ECB will follow the next day. It is very likely that the euro will come out even more devalued at the end of these two days. As the European Central Bank will almost certainly show a weak economic and political scenario in the...
This is an update to previous ideas charted at New Years 2019. The 10 year yield has been following the path of lower yields in a lock step fashion, however the pace of declining yields is concerning. The 3 day looks like Niagara Falls Where do we go from here? Currently, the 10 yr yield is in the middle of the 1 (1.32%) and .786 (1.734%) retrenchment...
Please have a look at the last time that the FED began lowering rates; they began with 25 basis points, and they ended at ZERO percent.
Wait for correction to the weekly central Pivot of next week, then Sell between the 21/34 EMA and below the weekly M3 of next week . Conservative target is M1 of future weekly Pivot and agressive target is at S2 future weekly Pivot . Shorting Euro is generally a good idea these days because you also get money (Swap) from most brokers for holding the position over night.