Get started

Recession

Is that a recession on the horizon? (TL;DR @ end)In one of the previous ideas I published, I addressed the rising concerns many people have regarding exchange traded funds, or at least the ones that use various indexes as a benchmark for weighting and distribution. Obviously, linked to this would be the concern of a crash in the whole of the U.S stock market and possibly all western markets (I can't perform an educated judgement on eastern markets as I have limited knowledge in that regard). Unfortunately for the United States economy, the situation has been looking rather dire. There are countless reasons to why I say this, two of which I must mention, are: 1. The inflation rates in the US that have increased to 6.2% according to the consumer price index. 2. The democrats' (likely successful) attempt at raising the debt ceiling for the government to avoid default. Not only are these 2 signs very concerning as far as economic stability but, like every recession prior to date; had stocks trading at the highest levels ever recorded. Which is exactly what is happening right now as you read this. Luckily for bond holders and unfortunately for borrowers, in response to these increased inflation rates, interest rates are also destined to rise. The effect of this was seen today in the US 10 year state bonds ( TVC:US10 ) as they increased by just under half a percentage point in price in 24 hours. This may be a good time to transfer some of your stock holdings into state bonds for the sake of safety, before the potential recession. The other concern is how ludicrously high the market is trading. If you take a look at any of the major public corporations, you will notice that they are trading at earnings multipliers that are astronomical (that's actually an understatement) but despite this fact, many people are still buying stocks at an alarming rate. If you take a sneak peak at the news, you will see a huge portion of traders all 'screaming' "buy more, buy more", regardless of the fact that 90% of stocks and crypto are trading at ludicrous prices and are bound to take some sort of fall at some point in the near future. I am writing this just to put the thought in the back of some of my fellow investors' minds, hopefully might make them re-evaluate their portfolio distribution and possibly have a bit of cash at hand to buy some of the bargains that will come out of the next recession. As usual, other opinions, facts and news are always welcome, stay safe and comment away! TL;DR: There are a couple of signs of a potential recession on the horizon, between overpriced stocks and crypto and people's ludicrous spending in the market. When this recession may occur is not for my prediction but given increased interest rates, I would suggest converting some of your liquid assets to state bonds and/or cash so you can take advantage of the coming bargains.
SP:SPX
by Michael_Axio
Is Silver About To Have a Massive Breakout? - 30 USDOn the 4 Hourly we are seeing a massive Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern. I believe that the inflation data by the FED minutes, is going to send Silver to breakout from the downtrend it has been on for some time. Stay tuned for long-targets, as we see this breakout accour. Fundamentals: Mine production from primary silver companies also fell last year, by 3.8%. It, too, is expected to drop by double digits this year. The ten largest silver countries have produced 12% less silver just since 2016. Supplies of recycled silver have fallen by 28% just since 2012.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by LukeSkywalker
1
Im scared.....Since recently it has been no secret that the stock market no longer reflects the state of the economy. In spite of all the global trade disputes, conflict in the middle east, protesting every other week in the west, and an ever more growing amount of people becoming reliant on government aid the S&P has never been higher nor have it gained so much in such a short span of time. With talks of a potential dollar crisis, it is clear to see we "don't deserve" the current prices were seeing in the stock market. What goes up must come down (even if it's for a moment), although I don't know when I'd be expecting a drop to ATLEAST peak covid figures in march. Protect yourselves by saving and if possible find secondary streams of income or safe investments. -Jones
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by lafayettej
Potential U.S. Recession Incoming? | MASSIVE AUDUSD SELL!?Could it be possible that if the U.S. isn't able to raise the "Debt Ceiling" and potentially enters into a Recession because it defaults on its debt, AUD/USD would drop dramatically? Keep your eyes open for this Thursday and weeks to come! Ex: The 2008 Financial Crisis What do you think? Let me know in the comments! :) Disclaimer: I am NOT a financial advisor, so invest at your own risk. Be sure to analyze, research, and proper risk management!
Short
by alphalicious
2
$SPY ~ Why A Crash Won't Surprise MeFirstly: This is not a prediction. I just say what I see. And what I see is, a tentative market top that looks different than all the previous "tops" this year, including the 2020 crash. I will put "top" in quotes because of course, I cannot be sure that is indeed a top until after the fact; obviously. What's different about this "top"? My labelled chart tells all, but in summary: There are very few or very small gaps. A clear gap almost always represents a "shock" in the system. A fall with virtually no gaps, in my view, means a structured, calm, almost rational fall. There is a cluster of red candles meaning this indeed "methodical" selling, also relating to the fact that there are no big gaps Take a look at the 2020 crash, and all mini tops this year (2021). You'll see nothing but choppiness and gaps. Panicking, in other words. Take a look at the 2008 crash: As you can see, virtually no gaps near the top. A structured, "rational" fall, later ending up in a recession. I'm not saying a crash will happen, obviously. But I would not be surprised, and I just say what I see. And what I see is, a "top" that looks different from everything recently before it. Side Note: It also looks the "Smart Money Index" has been on a consistent downtrend since 2018. I don't think this is my strongest point, so I left as a mere side note. Make of it what you will.
AMEX:SPY
by realcapmillen
2
Oil is about to crash. Divergence. Inflation near its end.Oil is its last stand. Dollar is on its rescue from devaluation the currency. No hyperinflation is modern time. FED bank have printed and push not just oil to record levels from minus prices. Lumber to stellar levels with copper. Commodity sector is very overpriced over all because of the inflation thats been going on since 2017 and zero rate for 10 years. We are in Inflation to Deflation status for now. next move is to resurrect the dollar is to midpoint and probably highs again like in 2020 like 97-105 dollars. With that in mind, everything is going down with the next move. Dollar and VIX and bonds will go up when investors and bankster will go into cash and more secure products. 35 dollar in WTI is most likley in the near future. prev: There too many factor playing out and 2021 the Q3-4. Printing more and more money to stabilize market. Wont last. Too much devaluation of dollar would risk more to the ecnonomy. Money would become worthless and it will never be a hyperinflation again. Dollar is already hovering around lows but still building upwards. As we seen in 2020 the dollar spike hard at crash of all the bond buying and selling of stocks. In the greatest Pandamic of all time is the best year for big companies and worst for smaller ones. I proves big things are gonna come very soon. If you look at all the insider trasaction of 2021 you can see Walmart, Facebook , Amazon, Google , Netflix and many more of the biggest shareholders selling of big profits. Some every day and some every week. Tells they have fear and retail person have no clue. Time to call this move. The banksters did a massive move from highs with above 20% move to the upside to liquidate retails marginal calls. Prices of Lumber sored most in history and crash this summer to its lows again. We had minus price in WTI and almost 80 in WTI after its lows. Big things is going down and it will get a lost worse. Unemployment is still at its highs, what will happend when savings account and stockmarket will fail. 10x the 2008 is coming. By just looking at the FED system and the debt. We know. By looking at insider trasaction. We know. By looking at technicals are all levels we are going to have a big Deflation/Recession to stabilize the currency of domination and reset the economy to whats needed. Exit the market or do you placements. But dont get greedy for more upside.
TVC:USOILShort
by PivotX
The target no one believes. NASDAQ There too many factor playing out and 2021 the Q3-4. Printing more and more money to stabilize market. Wont last. Too much devaluation of dollar would risk more to the ecnonomy. Money would become worthless and it will never be a hyperinflation again. Dollar is already hovering around lows but still building upwards. As we seen in 2020 the dollar spike hard at crash of all the bond buying and selling of stocks. In the greatest Pandamic of all time is the best year for big companies and worst for smaller ones. I proves big things are gonna come very soon. If you look at all the insider trasaction of 2021 you can see Walmart, Facebook , Amazon, Google , Netflix and many more of the biggest shareholders selling of big profits. Some every day and some every week. Tells they have fear and retail person have no clue. Time to call this move. The banksters did a massive move from highs with above 20% move to the upside to liquidate retails marginal calls. Prices of Lumber sored most in history and crash this summer to its lows again. We had minus price in WTI and almost 80 in WTI after its lows. Big things is going down and it will get a lost worse. Unemployment is still at its highs, what will happend when savings account and stockmarket will fail. 10x the 2008 is coming. By just looking at the FED system and the debt. We know. By looking at insider trasaction. We know. By looking at technicals are all levels we are going to have a big Deflation/Recession to stabilize the currency of domination and reset the economy to whats needed. Exit the market or do you placements. But dont get greedy for more upside.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by PivotX
Corona the Pandemic, The Recession of 2021. The Banksters.Corona the Pandemic, The Recession of 2021. There too many factor playing out and 2021 the Q3-4. Printing more and more money to stabilize market. Wont last. Too much devaluation of dollar would risk more to the ecnonomy. Money would become worthless and it will never be a hyperinflation again. Dollar is already hovering around lows but still building upwards. As we seen in 2020 the dollar spike hard at crash of all the bond buying and selling of stocks. In the greatest Pandamic of all time is the best year for big companies and worst for smaller ones. I proves big things are gonna come very soon. If you look at all the insider trasaction of 2021 you can see Walmart, Facebook, Amazon, Google, Netflix and many more of the biggest shareholders selling of big profits. Some every day and some every week. Tells they have fear and retail person have no clue. Time to call this move. The banksters did a massive move from highs with above 20% move to the upside to liquidate retails marginal calls. Prices of Lumber sored most in history and crash this summer to its lows again. We had minus price in WTI and almost 80 in WTI after its lows. Big things is going down and it will get a lost worse. Unemployment is still at its highs, what will happend when savings account and stockmarket will fail. 10x the 2008 is coming. By just looking at the FED system and the debt. We know. By looking at insider trasaction. We know. By looking at technicals are all levels we are going to have a big Deflation/Recession to stabilize the currency of domination and reset the economy to whats needed. Exit the market or do you placements. But dont get greedy for more upside. (To be clear, recession has not begun. -35.87% drop is not a recession. its above 50% to be a recession counted as one. we did a too rapid drop and too rapid recover for sustainability. Index have done around 1450-1500 point move every sustainable move. now we have done 2280 points in a year in one go. We had Disjunction Pattern in 2017-2021. We are about the get the worst crash in history. Biggest companies in the world are selling of massive share. So many things proves this is one of the biggest bubble every created. Printing money cant sustain. It devalues the dollar. Dollar is on is recover.)
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by PivotX