This is the first time of history where economy will be absolutely tokenizated, that is, the token market capitalizacion will be equivalent to the world GDP . Of course, this is not going to happen from one hour to another, but it is not far away either - blockchain is going to give the monetary system a 180 degree turn. The collapse of the international banking...
I feel that the bond market is the greatest indicator of the stock market's future. Who else is more concerned about their money than ultra-conservative bondholders? We see in the graph as the short-term Treasury yield rises (in red) from lack of demand and selling off. The sell-off in the short-term treasuries indicates that investors are worried about the future...
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of 10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
US Yield Curve ( 2 minus 10 year ) - Commitment of Traders - Futures Only - Percent of Open Interest - Legacy Format - Calculation of 10 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts with sum of 2 year Non Commercial Longs minus Non Commercial Shorts
Bitcoin and other deflationary crypto-assets follow distinct fractal patterns in their price movements. Bitcoin , most of all, strictly follows a fibonacci pattern during its bubbles. To the right we have the 2013 bubble and the previous minibubble as basis for our fib-extension. Here we see that bitcoin always has concluded its bubble cycles at the 5.236...
I predicted a downturn for Google and Logitech this week not realizing the much bigger picture, the NASDAQ. In trying to understand what happened today, I found a very troubling pattern. It seems that in the 2008 recession, it took a dip and tried to correct itself only to crash even worse. Are we facing a similar pattern at a much greater proportion?
There are two deep crabs on the monthly DJIA chart with the largest spanning nearly 10 years. That puts us right inside of a massive harmonic potential reversal zone. IF this PRZ holds we could see a very deep retracement of the bull run of the last 7 years. HOWEVER, if this harmonic reversal zone fails by becoming support, then we could definitely see higher...
Since the financial crisis of 2009, productivity, business investment, labor force participation and wage growth have all been significantly below trend. Asset prices have "recovered", although this is only the result of speculative borrowing due to low interest rates. GDP has not seen a year of growth over 3% since 2007. This pathetic rate of growth is currently...
Whenever the unemployment rate has crossed above the 12 month moving average, almost always a recession has soon followed. Here we are now.
If trend-lines are broken, look for a new bear market and tests of the recent lows, before start of a major...MAJOR, bear market, IMO.
Following today's Service/ Manufacturing PMI miss (worst contraction in 88 months - since 2009) the Sterling market has come under significant pressure as BOE rate cut expectations increase with OIS rates markets pricing a 94% chance of a 4th Aug cut vs 85% before the PMI's were released. Further, the PMI misses has attracted attention from UK Politicians e.g....
Gold is testing lower levels of support as market participants aim to price in a potential rate hike in June by the Federal Reserve. While intraday price action is oversold, the daily chart is indicating further selling could continue to below $1,230. If a close below this key level occurs, traders can expect XAUUSD to reach $1,215. Subscribers of MacroView's...
A series of events took place causing me sit back and contemplate market participants (in)sanity. First, it is known that I've was one of the first to stick my neck out and tell it how it is – the U.S. Is facing a recession in 2016 – last April. Soon after, various investment banks flirted with the potential but gave the very realistic situation very low...
Is the once Goldman Sachs "slam dunk sell" turning into a layup buy? I cannot hate the initial call from many investment bank analysts it to sink to $1,000 because, in 2013, I issued a $1,035 bear-call. However, I do ridicule these analysts for unwillingly (either through ignorance or moral hazard) understanding the dynamics of gold. But in 2014 I turned rather...
The S&P 500 is starting to look pretty dismal on the longterm daily chart, despite the recent relief rally. Following the curves, price is on track to go into panicked free fall sometime in June or July. But as is the chaotic nature of the seneca cliff, It could fall a lot sooner than that. The exquisite head & shoulders top that forms the multi year crest of this...
Massive retraction in equities should happen after this brief counter rally comes to an end. A larger and sharper drop will occur as volatility cycles increase in amplitude and frequency every year.
Traders have seen this before, and it continues to play out as the global economic climate breaks down. Although these pullbacks in the SPX are often lofty and swift, it is important to realize volume is the most import factor when considering the validity of a pullback. Here , we can see that the move in SPY is volumeless. The entire squeeze from the Feb. 11...