MacroView_Research

#Gold Testing Support Near Term Bounce Expected

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
Gold             is testing lower levels of support as market participants aim to price in a potential rate hike in June by the Federal Reserve .

While intraday price action is oversold, the daily chart is indicating further selling could continue to below $1,230. If a close below this key level occurs, traders can expect XAUUSD             to reach $1,215.

Subscribers of MacroView's "Daily Grind" were alerted of the potential of a $30+ drop as seen here.

Key factors to watch:

  • The four-hour chart z-score is -2.4 (daily z-score is -2.57). This suggests that prices are stretched and a score +/- 2 makes a great contrarian indicator.
  • Intraday RSI and Stochastic are both suggesting oversold conditions.
  • Multiple EMA bearish convergence, currently a 50/200 EMA bearish crossover is probable.

MacroView expects to see demand between $1,215/20. It's important to keep and eye on the short end of the yield curve. With a relatively strong negative correlation with the two and five year yield maturity, if those continue to rise, we could see more pressure on the yellow metal.

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Also, readers are encouraged to post their thoughts and charts!

Gold is testing trend support on a combination of pretense of a fed rate hike, as well as the second yuan devaluation in two weeks by the PBOC. The devaluation in the yuan will de facto strengthen the dollar thus pressure commodities. However, technical gold is oversold near-term. A close beneath $1,200 would open up $1,190
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