An inverted yield curve (2/10) is an indicator but the 'cause'. Yields were 6%/5%/4% last times they were inverted and not 1.5% :) If corps can't afford to pay 1.5%, there is nothing Fed can do to resolve that issue. Policy issues are the cause and the cure is fiscal and not monetary. GL
Not a trading call, just sharing my view. Peace
ORCL (50/29) releases earnings on Wednesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Wednesday's New York session.
Pictured here is a non-standard short strangle, with the short call side doubled up in order to compensate for greater than one dollar wide strikes: 1.30 credit, break evens at 48.70/58.15, and delta/theta of...
CRM (57/42) releases earnings on Tuesday after market close, so look to put on a play in the waning hours of Tuesday's New York session.
Pictured here is an iron condor in the July monthly with the short options nearest the 20 delta strikes. Preliminarily, it's paying 1.61 at the mid price with break evens wide of the expected move at 133.40/171.60 with...
A double bottom with an upside divergence in the MACD is taking shape. might be tad early but TBT is the leveraged ETF on the 20 year Treasury. Bought 10 contracts of the 33.5 puts expiring MAY 24 AT .09C BIT SPECULATIVE WE'LL SEE.
Max Loss on Setup: $422
Max Profit on Setup: $178
Break Even Versus Spot: 35.22 versus 35.37
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 70.3%
Notes: Tomorrow's the last day on which 2018 tax losses can be realized, so I can foresee some additional, last minute dumpage, followed by the Big Dicks buying the dip on Wednesday to position long...
Daily TBT shows bull flag and seller exhaustion. Weekly bullish cloud ahead.
All major EMAs supporting the move higher, which means rates going to explode much higher. Bullish dollar $DXY and bearish gold $XAUUSD and miners $GDXJ $GDX
Although the earnings season has already kicked off modestly, a bevvy of financials announce next week: C, JPM, and WFC (all on Friday). I generally don't play these underlyings for volatility contraction around earnings primarily because the implied volatility just doesn't ramp up to the degree I'd like to see for a play. I thought I'd mention them here since...
Of course, there are many levels to breach before this secular trend can be declared to have turned. Nothing conclusive therefore.
To me however, the momentum appears to be positive.
If indeed my analysis should come to pass as outlined, many a peripheral countries should find themselves gradually, though rather quickly, further up the proverbial creek.
We're back into the thick of earnings season again ... .
NFLX (rank 64/implied 52) pops the top on Monday after market close, so you're going to want to slap anything you want to do on before session end to take maximum advantage of a volatility contraction play.
Pictured here is a 20 delta iron condor in the weekly with a buying power effect of 6.59 per...
... for a 2.62/contract debit.
Max Profit on Setup: $138/contract
Max Loss on Setup: $262/contract
Break Even: 35.62 vs. 35.69 spot
Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 65.5%
Notes: Basically, shorting treasury strength with the inverse instrument ... . Here, I'll look to take profit somewhat quickly, since I've only got one roll opportunity with this setup....
This week: three candidates for directionals and one nondirectional premium selling play ... .
Although timing could have been better to catch the absolute bottom in this, implied volatility rank and background implied volatility remain quite high in this underlying (61/35). Given price weakness coupled with high implied volatility rank, I would think that...
Hold tight for this ride, there's a variety of reasons why bond prices will stagnate or fall.
Interest rates should rise and be higher than they are now; "should" certainly isn't a reason for something to happen, but there are scant monetary policy maneuverings available for the Fed to keep interest rates low and by extension, prop the stock market up much...