TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20 + Year treasury - looking bearish from this level. a gap at 40.19 to be filled
Please someone explain why the 10yr note yield TNX goes down after FOMC raises interest rates? I would expect the relationship between the two to be pretty much linear.
TBT PROSHARES ULTRASHORT 20 YEARS TREASURY Bull move anticipated. The motto is "never leave a gap (man) behind...shorterm
TBT had a long term breakout last November. Looks like it is working on a re-test. A close about $43 might be a game changer (to confirm the death of bond bull market). It is still too early to make the call.
One of the most obvious trades out there. Pullback to mean would be KILLER value. Will be watching this closely and using Marty Armstrong's Socrates levels for confirmation. There is certainly a chance we continue down further to that next support trend line before pulling back. In that instance we may see a H&S formation occur with the right shoulder at fib.
If it doesn't this time, it will do so soon. Don't think it's a good time to enter in short term though.
Hindsight traded 101 but a perfect example of a bull recoil trade ... that I completely missed ! Held range July til Sep. Gapped up and rallied into 33 (that move eroded long term bearish trend line) Retraced to 50% at 31 and then took off
Bonds usually bounce after huge sell offs before continuing to sell off. 2013 multi week sell off had mid week bounces to roughly 50% of previous week's range. good spot to buy some longer dated calls (dec?) at 126'235 for a bounce next week to around high 127s or low 128s+. RSI lowest in years, closed 4 days outside lower BB, very oversold. good...
Please forgive for the poor title choice. TLT coming into contact with a multiple points of resistance: the 50d ma as well as the 138 line. Momentum a key driver of the rally in lower bond yields appears to be fading. Although I still think yields head much lower in the US, now is not the time to hold a big long position.
TBT had a great run for the past several months and is now at resistance. Note the dominating trend is still down. We need to see a breakout, a higher low, and a higher high to confirm the trend change.
Short Treasuries, chart self explanatory
Still think rates will head lower due for a myriad of reasons, but in the short term, it is plausible that rates will go higher for technical reasons. Longer-Term Reasons for lower rates (i.e. lower for longer)- 1) Monetary Policy remains accommodative 2) Growth/Inflation expectations remain subdued 3) Foreign buying interest from places with negative yields on...
If you're going for a Long/Call position then you may want to consider putting a tight stop loss at around 30.30 where the red line is. This is just an idea so I won’t post updates here.
There is a bubble in the bond market. Worldwide financial crises & money printing will make it collapse very soon. In this context we are considering TBT long term Call option.